{"approval":{"iran_war_net_silver_bulletin":[{"value":-18.1,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Trough of Iran war net approval before ceasefire","date":"2026-04-04"},{"value":-17,"note":"Silver Bulletin via Track B. Lag flag set.","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":-15.1,"note":"Silver Bulletin Iran war approval net. Negative value indicates net disapproval.","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":-15.1,"note":"Silver Bulletin Iran war net approval","date":"2026-04-09"},{"value":-15.1,"note":"Silver Bulletin Iran war net approval.","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":-15.1,"note":"Silver Bulletin Iran War Net Approval. Net approval of Iran military operation -15.1.","date":"2026-04-12"},{"value":-15.1,"note":"Silver Bulletin Iran war net approval.","date":"2026-04-13"},{"value":-15.1,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Approve 38.7 vs oppose 53.8 on mid-April snapshot","date":"2026-04-15"},{"value":-14.9,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Essentially unchanged from start of ceasefire; approve 38.7 vs oppose 53.6 per mid-April ref","date":"2026-04-19"}]},"chart_update":{"bootstrap":{"2":[{"date":"2026-04-17","value":4.076,"as_of":"2026-04-17","source_hash":"bh_inline_aaa_gas_2026_04_17_llm-fetch-v1"}]},"shadow":{"1":[{"date":"2026-03-01","value":2.6,"as_of":"2026-03-01","source_hash":"bh_inline_bls_cpi_2026_03_01_llm-fetch-v1"}],"2":[{"date":"2026-03-01","value":0.3,"as_of":"2026-03-01","source_hash":"bh_inline_bls_wages_2026_03_01_llm-fetch-v1"}],"3":[{"date":"2026-02-28","value":42.7,"as_of":"2026-02-28","source_hash":"bh_claude_rcp_generic_ballot_2026_02_28"}]}},"consumer_sentiment_by_income":{"bottom_third":[{"value":47.2,"note":"Bottom third consistently lowest; structural pessimism","date":"2026-01"},{"value":46.8,"note":"Slight decline","date":"2026-02"},{"value":45.5,"note":"Final March; continued decline","date":"2026-03"}],"middle_third":[{"value":56.1,"note":"Middle third tracks closer to headline","date":"2026-01"},{"value":55.4,"note":"Slight decline","date":"2026-02"},{"value":52,"note":"Final March; sharper drop than prior months","date":"2026-03"}],"top_third":[{"value":68.5,"note":"Top third typically highest; stock wealth cushion","date":"2026-01"},{"value":67,"note":"Slight decline","date":"2026-02"},{"value":61,"note":"Final March; down ~9% - K-shaped cushion eroding. Middle and higher-income consumers with stock wealth showed steepest drops. Source: Marketplace/Joanne Hsu.","date":"2026-03"}]},"doge_spending":{"contract_terminations":[{"value":null,"note":"Department of Government Efficiency formally dissolved as centralized entity (early April 2026). OPM Director Scott Kupor confirmed to Reuters. Leadership instability: Ramaswamy departed for Ohio governor race; Musk–Trump falling out (July 2025). DeSantis characterized DOGE as 'defeated by the swamp.' White House claims ~$215B cumulative savings ($1,335 per taxpayer); $470M from 312 contract terminations (ceiling $2.8B) in prior 7-day period. (The National Desk, April 2026; Reuters; whitehouse.gov/priorities/doge)","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":null,"note":"DOGE dissolved; principles institutionalized across agencies via White House OPM and OMB. Final period: 312 contracts terminated, $2.8B ceiling value, $470M reported savings (DoD, HHS). Post-dissolution, efficiency activity continues under individual agencies. The National Desk, doge.gov posts (through ~2026-04-04); Track A Perplexity political sweep, 2026-04-05.","date":"2026-04-04"},{"value":null,"note":"Fortune reports 2025 DOGE cuts eliminated State Department Bureau of Energy Resources (80-person team). Former officials cite reduced capacity to monitor fossil fuel disruptions tied to Iran conflict. State Department spokesperson disputes impact.","date":"2026-04-05"},{"value":312,"note":"DOGE reported 312 contracts terminated in past 7 days with $2.8B ceiling; 103 additional in final 2 days with $6.3B ceiling and $4.8B claimed savings.","date":"2026-04-09"}]},"economic_indicators":{"consumer_sentiment_umich":[{"value":56.6,"note":"University of Michigan via FRED. Approximately two months lagged; next release may shift materially.","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":59.7,"note":"UMich.","date":"Dec 2022 (final)"},{"value":69.7,"note":"UMich. Improving.","date":"Dec 2023 (final)"},{"value":58,"note":"Declining into year-end. Source: UMich.","date":"Dec 2025 (final)"},{"value":56.6,"note":"Implied from Mar prelim decline (55.5 down from 56.6)","date":"Feb 2026 (final)"},{"value":71.1,"note":"Post-election. Source: UMich.","date":"Jan 2025 (final)"},{"value":null,"note":"Not yet tracked in document","date":"Jan 2026 (final)"},{"value":50,"note":"UMich. Near all-time low (inflation anxiety).","date":"Jun 2022 (final)"},{"value":64.4,"note":"UMich. Recovery.","date":"Jun 2023 (final)"},{"value":68.2,"note":"UMich.","date":"Jun 2024 (final)"},{"value":62,"note":"Partial recovery. Source: UMich.","date":"Jun 2025 (final)"},{"value":57,"note":"Tariff shock. Source: UMich.","date":"Mar 2025 (final)"},{"release_date":"2026-03-13","value":53.3,"expectations":54.1,"note":"Final Mar: revised down from 55.5 prelim. Below 54.0 consensus. 2nd percentile historically. Lowest since Nov 2025.","date":"Mar 2026"},{"release_date":"2026-03-27","value":null,"note":"[FORWARD]","date":"Mar 2026 (final)"},{"value":71.8,"note":"UMich. Post-election optimism bump.","date":"Nov 2024 (final)"},{"value":60,"note":"Source: UMich.","date":"Sep 2025 (final)"}],"cpi_annual":[{"value":6.5,"note":"Declining from peak. Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2022"},{"value":3.4,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2023"},{"release_date":"2025-01-15","value":2.9,"note":"Year-end 2024. Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2024"},{"release_date":"2026-01-14","value":2.4,"note":"Year-end 2025. Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2025"},{"release_date":"2026-03-11","value":2.4,"core":2.5,"note":"Pre-Iran data; food at home 3.1% YoY; energy 0.6% monthly","date":"Feb 2026"},{"release_date":"2026-02-12","value":null,"note":"Not yet tracked in document; pre-Iran baseline","date":"Jan 2026"},{"value":9.1,"note":"40-year peak. Source: BLS.","date":"Jun 2022"},{"value":3,"note":"Rapid disinflation. Source: BLS.","date":"Jun 2023"},{"value":3,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jun 2024"},{"value":2.6,"note":"Tariff pass-through beginning. Source: BLS.","date":"Jun 2025"},{"value":2.4,"note":"Post-Liberation Day baseline. Source: BLS.","date":"Mar 2025"},{"release_date":"2026-04-10","value":null,"note":"[FORWARD] First reading to capture Iran war energy shock. Key stagflation test.","date":"Mar 2026"},{"value":2.4,"note":"Approaching Fed target. Source: BLS.","date":"Sep 2024"},{"value":2.5,"note":"Easing slightly. Source: BLS.","date":"Sep 2025"}],"fed_funds_rate":[{"date":"2024-09-18","rate_low":4.75,"rate_high":5,"action":"Cut 50bp","note":"First cut of cycle. Source: FOMC."},{"date":"2024-11-07","rate_low":4.5,"rate_high":4.75,"action":"Cut 25bp","note":"Post-election meeting. Source: FOMC."},{"date":"2024-12-18","rate_low":4.25,"rate_high":4.5,"action":"Cut 25bp","note":"Third consecutive cut. Source: FOMC."},{"date":"2025-03-19","rate_low":4,"rate_high":4.25,"action":"Cut 25bp","note":"Source: FOMC."},{"date":"2025-06-18","rate_low":3.75,"rate_high":4,"action":"Cut 25bp","note":"Source: FOMC."},{"date":"2025-09-17","rate_low":3.5,"rate_high":3.75,"action":"Cut 25bp","note":"Last cut before hold. Source: FOMC."},{"date":"2025-11-05","rate_low":3.5,"rate_high":3.75,"action":"Hold","note":"First hold of this cycle. Source: FOMC."},{"date":"2026-01-29","action":"Hold","note":"FOMC Jan meeting. 1st hold of 2026. Source: FOMC.","rate_low":3.5,"rate_high":3.75},{"date":"2026-03-18","rate_low":3.5,"rate_high":3.75,"action":"Hold","note":"SEP raised 2026 PCE to 2.7%. Dot plot: 1 cut. 7/19 see no cuts. Powell: unusually elevated uncertainty."}],"gdp_quarterly_annualized":[{"value":-1.6,"note":"BEA final. Negative quarter (technical recession debate).","date":"Q1 2022"},{"value":2.2,"note":"BEA final.","date":"Q1 2023"},{"value":1.6,"note":"BEA final. Slowed.","date":"Q1 2024"},{"value":2.3,"note":"BEA final. Pre-tariff baseline.","date":"Q1 2025"},{"value":-0.6,"note":"BEA final. 2nd consecutive negative quarter.","date":"Q2 2022"},{"value":2.1,"note":"BEA final.","date":"Q2 2023"},{"value":3,"note":"BEA final.","date":"Q2 2024"},{"value":2,"note":"BEA final. Tariff uncertainty beginning.","date":"Q2 2025"},{"value":3.2,"note":"BEA final. Rebound.","date":"Q3 2022"},{"value":4.9,"note":"BEA final. Surge quarter.","date":"Q3 2023"},{"value":3.1,"note":"BEA final.","date":"Q3 2024"},{"release_date":"2025-10-30","value":2.4,"note":"BEA final; pre-slowdown.","date":"Q3 2025"},{"value":2.6,"note":"BEA final.","date":"Q4 2022"},{"value":3.4,"note":"BEA final.","date":"Q4 2023"},{"value":2.4,"note":"BEA final. Pre-inauguration.","date":"Q4 2024"},{"release_date":"2026-03-13","value":0.7,"note":"Revised down sharply; govt shutdown subtracted ~1.0pp","date":"Q4 2025 (2nd est.)"},{"release_date":"2026-04-09","value":null,"note":"[FORWARD] Will 0.7% hold?","date":"Q4 2025 (3rd est.)"},{"release_date":"2026-01-30","value":1.4,"date":"Q4 2025 (advance)"}],"jobs_nonfarm_payrolls":[{"value":216000,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2023"},{"release_date":"2025-01-10","value":256000,"note":"Strong close to 2024. Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2024"},{"release_date":"2026-01-10","value":150000,"note":"DOGE/federal layoffs beginning to appear. Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2025"},{"release_date":"2026-03-07","value":-92000,"note":"Corrected from initial +151K misreport. Annual benchmark revision: -862K to -911K from 2025 total.","date":"Feb 2026"},{"release_date":"2026-02-07","value":null,"note":"Not yet tracked","date":"Jan 2026"},{"value":206000,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jun 2024"},{"release_date":"2025-07-03","value":206000,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jun 2025"},{"value":315000,"note":"Strong spring. Source: BLS.","date":"Mar 2024"},{"release_date":"2025-04-04","value":228000,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Mar 2025"},{"value":254000,"note":"Pre-election strength. Source: BLS.","date":"Sep 2024"},{"release_date":"2025-10-03","value":180000,"note":"Slowing trend. Source: BLS.","date":"Sep 2025"}],"pce_inflation":[{"value":2.6,"note":"Year-end 2024. Source: BEA.","date":"Dec 2024"},{"value":2.9,"note":"Goldman raised forecast +0.8pp","date":"Goldman forecast Dec 2026"},{"value":2.5,"note":"Source: BEA.","date":"Q1 2025"},{"value":2.6,"note":"Source: BEA.","date":"Q2 2025"},{"value":2.7,"note":"Tariff pass-through appearing. Source: BEA.","date":"Q3 2025"},{"value":2.9,"note":"From BEA GDP 2nd estimate","date":"Q4 2025"}],"recession_probability_goldman":[{"date":"2025-01-01","value":15,"note":"Standard Goldman baseline entering 2025. Source: Goldman Sachs."},{"date":"2025-04-05","value":35,"note":"Post-Liberation Day tariff spike. Source: Goldman Sachs."},{"date":"2025-04-09","value":45,"note":"Peak tariff-panic reading. Source: Goldman Sachs."},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":25,"note":"Partial tariff rollback; eased. Source: Goldman Sachs."},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":20,"note":"Stabilized. Source: Goldman Sachs."},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":15,"note":"Approximate pre-cycle baseline (Goldman standard)"},{"date":"2026-03-04","value":20,"note":"Pre-war baseline referenced in document"},{"date":"2026-03-12","value":20},{"date":"2026-03-15","value":25,"note":"Raised; PCE forecast +0.8pp to 2.9%, rate cuts pushed to Sept/Dec, tariffs added 70+ bps to core inflation"},{"date":"2026-03-25","value":30,"note":"Raised from 25% (Mar 12). Cites dual-track headwinds of oil supply shock and tariff escalation with China. Predicts unemployment climbing to 4.6% by year-end."}],"unemployment":[{"value":3.9,"note":"Source: BLS. Beginning uptick.","date":"Apr 2024"},{"value":4.1,"note":"Year-end 2024. Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2024"},{"release_date":"2026-01-10","value":4.2,"note":"Edging up; DOGE layoffs beginning. Source: BLS.","date":"Dec 2025"},{"release_date":"2026-03-07","value":4.4,"date":"Feb 2026"},{"value":4,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jan 2022"},{"value":3.4,"note":"Source: BLS. Near 50-year low.","date":"Jan 2023"},{"value":3.7,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jan 2024"},{"release_date":"2026-02-07","value":null,"note":"Not yet tracked","date":"Jan 2026"},{"value":3.5,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jul 2022"},{"value":3.5,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jul 2023"},{"value":4.3,"note":"Source: BLS. Sahm Rule briefly triggered.","date":"Jul 2024"},{"value":4,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Jun 2025"},{"value":4,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Mar 2025"},{"value":4.1,"note":"Source: BLS. Pre-election.","date":"Oct 2024"},{"value":4.1,"note":"Source: BLS.","date":"Sep 2025"}]},"energy_prices":{"diesel_aaa_weekly":[{"value":3.753,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-11-03"},{"value":3.837,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-11-10"},{"value":3.868,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-11-17"},{"value":3.831,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-11-24"},{"value":3.758,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":3.665,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-12-08"},{"value":3.607,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-12-15"},{"value":3.544,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-12-22"},{"value":3.5,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2025-12-29"},{"value":3.477,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-01-05"},{"value":3.459,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-01-12"},{"value":3.53,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-01-19"},{"value":3.624,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-01-26"},{"value":3.681,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-02-02"},{"value":3.688,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-02-09"},{"value":3.711,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-02-16"},{"value":3.809,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-02-23"},{"value":3.897,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-03-02"},{"value":4.859,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-03-09"},{"value":5.071,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-03-16"},{"value":5.375,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-03-23"},{"value":5.401,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-03-30"},{"value":5.643,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-04-06"},{"value":5.608,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US on-highway diesel fuel price per gallon","date":"2026-04-13"}],"events":[{"date":"2020-01-03","event":"US kills Soleimani; oil spikes briefly to $69"},{"date":"2020-03-09","event":"Saudi-Russia price war; oil crashes","oil_impact":"Brent fell from $50 to $22 in weeks"},{"date":"2020-04-20","event":"WTI goes negative (-$37.63); COVID demand collapse"},{"date":"2022-02-24","event":"Russia invades Ukraine; oil surges past $100","oil_impact":"Brent $99 -> $128 in 2 weeks"},{"date":"2022-03-08","event":"US bans Russian oil imports; Brent $128","oil_impact":"Near all-time high"},{"date":"2022-03-31","event":"Biden authorizes 180M barrel SPR release (largest ever)"},{"date":"2023-10-07","event":"Hamas attack on Israel; brief oil spike","oil_impact":"Brent +4% initially, faded within weeks"},{"date":"2024-04-13","event":"Iran drone/missile attack on Israel; oil briefly $92","oil_impact":"Spike reversed within days on containment"},{"date":"2025-02-01","event":"Trump 10% China tariffs + 25% Canada/Mexico tariffs announced"},{"date":"2025-04-02","event":"Trump Liberation Day tariffs (reciprocal tariffs announced)"},{"date":"2026-02-04","event":"SOTU (gas $2.92)"},{"date":"2026-02-28","event":"Iran war begins"},{"date":"2026-03-05","event":"Hormuz effectively shut; oil spikes to ~$120"},{"date":"2026-03-08","event":"Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader"},{"date":"2026-03-10","event":"Trump signals faster end; oil pullback to ~$88"},{"date":"2026-03-13","event":"Kharg Island struck (90+ targets)"},{"date":"2026-03-14","event":"IEA SPR release (400M bbl)"},{"date":"2026-03-16","event":"UK, Germany, EU decline Hormuz naval coalition; IEA: largest supply disruption in oil market history"},{"date":"2026-03-18","event":"Israel strikes South Pars gas field (world largest, shared with Qatar). Iran retaliates against Ras Laffan LNG, Saudi refineries, UAE.","oil_impact":"Brent surged from $108 to $119 intraday"},{"date":"2026-03-19","event":"Israel strikes Caspian Sea naval targets (first time); Netanyahu claims helping reopen Hormuz; oil reverses from $119 to $108.65"},{"date":"2026-03-20","event":"Iraq force majeure on all foreign oilfields; Iran struck Ras Laffan (17% LNG cut) and Kuwait refinery; GA suspends gas tax; IRGC spokesman killed; F-35 hit by Iranian fire","oil_impact":"Brent closed $112.19 (+3.26%), new closing high"},{"date":"2026-03-22","event":"Trump 48-hour ultimatum: obliterate Iran power plants if Hormuz not reopened. Iran vows indefinite Hormuz closure and destruction of all regional energy/water infrastructure.","oil_impact":"Analysts warn $200+ if executed. Monday open expected volatile."},{"date":"2026-03-23","event":"Trump postpones power plant strikes 5 days, claims Iran talks; oil crashes 7%+ intraday","oil_impact":"Brent from $114 to ~$104"},{"date":"2026-03-24","event":"Oil rebounds +4.5% to ~$104 after Monday's 11% crash; Iran charging Hormuz transit fees up to $2M/vessel (Bloomberg); Philippines declares energy emergency; 82nd Airborne deploying","oil_impact":"Brent back above $100 as markets absorb continued combat despite Trump talks claims"},{"date":"2026-03-25","event":"Oil falls 2.2% to ~$102 on talks. Iran rejects US 15-point plan, issues 5-point counter including Hormuz control. Kuwait airport drone attack. GCC demands seat at negotiations."},{"date":"2026-03-28","event":"Houthis enter war with ballistic missile strikes on Israel. Prince Sultan Air Base attacked (12-15 US wounded). USS Tripoli arrives with 3,500 Marines.","oil_impact":"Brent closed $112.57; threat of second chokepoint (Bab al-Mandeb) alongside Hormuz."},{"date":"2026-03-30","event":"Trump threatens to obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure. Brent 55% monthly gain (record). Powell: rates 'good place.'"},{"date":"2026-03-31","event":"Pentagon: B-52s over Iran, 'negotiate with bombs.' Pakistan-China 5-pt peace plan. Pezeshkian may accept deal. May Brent expired ~$119 (60%+ record monthly surge).","oil_impact":"Brent fell to ~$106.56 from $112.78 on de-escalation reports"}],"gas_aaa_weekly":[{"date":"2019-01-01","price":2.25,"note":"2019 annual avg. Source: AAA/EIA."},{"date":"2020-01-01","price":2.17,"note":"2020 annual avg. COVID suppressed demand. Source: AAA/EIA."},{"date":"2021-01-01","price":2.33,"note":"2021 start. Rose to $3.41 annual avg. Source: AAA/EIA."},{"date":"2021-06-01","price":3.07,"note":"2021 mid-year; recovery demand surge. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2021-12-01","price":3.28,"note":"2021 year-end. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2022-01-01","price":3.32,"note":"Pre-Ukraine-invasion baseline. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2022-03-07","price":4.17,"note":"Russia invades Ukraine (Feb 24); gas surging. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2022-06-13","price":5.02,"note":"All-time record national average. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2022-09-01","price":3.76,"note":"SPR release + demand pullback. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2022-12-01","price":3.21,"note":"Year-end decline. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2023-01-01","price":3.27,"note":"2023 start. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2023-04-01","price":3.6,"note":"Spring seasonal rise. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2023-09-18","price":3.88,"note":"2023 peak; highest since Oct 2022. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2023-12-01","price":3.15,"note":"Year-end decline. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2024-01-01","price":3.07,"note":"2024 start. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2024-04-15","price":3.63,"note":"Spring 2024 seasonal high. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2024-07-01","price":3.5,"note":"Mid-2024. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2024-09-01","price":3.33,"note":"Pre-election decline. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2024-12-01","price":3.01,"note":"Year-end 2024; falling toward $2.80s. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2025-01-01","price":2.98,"note":"2025 start; continued decline. Source: AAA."},{"date":"2025-04-01","price":3.15,"note":"Spring 2025 seasonal. Source: AAA estimate."},{"date":"2025-07-01","price":3.25,"note":"Mid-2025. Source: AAA estimate."},{"date":"2025-10-01","price":3.05,"note":"Fall 2025 decline. Source: AAA estimate."},{"value":3.019,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-11-03"},{"value":3.056,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-11-10"},{"value":3.062,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-11-17"},{"value":3.061,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-11-24"},{"value":2.985,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":2.94,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-12-08"},{"value":2.895,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-12-15"},{"value":2.841,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-12-22"},{"value":2.811,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2025-12-29"},{"date":"2026-01-01","source":"AAA/BOB 94.9","price":2.83},{"value":2.796,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-01-05"},{"date":"2026-01-08","source":"AAA newsroom","price":2.81},{"value":2.779,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-01-12"},{"date":"2026-01-15","source":"AAA newsroom","price":2.84},{"value":2.806,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-01-19"},{"date":"2026-01-22","note":"Estimated; stable per AAA","price":2.84},{"value":2.853,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-01-26"},{"date":"2026-01-29","note":"Estimated; stable per AAA","price":2.85},{"value":2.867,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-02-02"},{"date":"2026-02-05","note":"Estimated; beginning seasonal rise","price":2.87},{"value":2.902,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-02-09"},{"date":"2026-02-12","note":"Estimated","price":2.89},{"value":2.924,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-02-16"},{"date":"2026-02-19","source":"AAA newsroom","note":"SOTU reference price","price":2.92},{"value":2.937,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-02-23"},{"date":"2026-02-26","source":"AAA newsroom","note":"Seasonal rise underway; summer-blend transition","price":2.98},{"value":3.015,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-03-02"},{"date":"2026-03-05","source":"AAA newsroom","note":"Jumped ~27 cents in one week; Iran war impact","price":3.25},{"value":3.502,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-03-09"},{"date":"2026-03-12","source":"AAA newsroom","note":"Jumped ~35 cents; spring break + war","price":3.6},{"date":"2026-03-15","source":"AAA","note":"Up ~27% from pre-war $2.92","price":3.699},{"value":3.72,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-03-16"},{"date":"2026-03-18","price":3.842,"note":"Highest since Sep 2023. Up ~32% from pre-war $2.92. Diesel nearing $5.07 (highest since 2022). CA $5.56."},{"date":"2026-03-19","price":3.884,"note":"Up 28c in one week per AAA; highest since Sep 2023; up 33% from pre-war $2.92"},{"date":"2026-03-20","price":3.912,"note":"Highest since Sep 2023. GA first state to suspend gas tax (60-day)."},{"date":"2026-03-22","price":3.942,"note":"Up 35% from pre-war $2.92. United Airlines first major carrier to cut 5% capacity."},{"value":3.961,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-03-23"},{"date":"2026-03-24","price":3.977,"note":"24th consecutive daily increase; MI crossed $4.01; up $1.06 in one month"},{"date":"2026-03-25","price":3.977,"note":"Unchanged from Mar 24. Highest since 2022. EIA weekly $4.096 for wk of Mar 23."},{"date":"2026-03-26","price":3.981,"note":"Up $1.00 in one month (AAA press release: from $2.98 Feb 26 to $3.98 Mar 26). Could hit $4 'in coming days' — first time since Aug 2022."},{"date":"2026-03-28","price":3.98,"note":"AAA Mar 28. Conflicting reads $3.977-$3.981. Effectively flat from prior day. Up $1.06 from pre-war $2.92."},{"value":3.99,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-03-30"},{"date":"2026-03-31","price":4.02,"note":"Crossed $4 for first time since Aug 2022; diesel $5.45"},{"date":"2026-04-01","price":4.064,"note":"AAA daily; up from $4.018 Mar 31; $1.08 monthly increase (record)"},{"value":4.06,"note":"AAA data is 1 day behind","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":4.104,"note":"AAA April 4 2026. First time national average exceeded $4 since August 2022. Track B fetch failed; Track A authoritative.","date":"2026-04-04"},{"value":4.11,"note":"AAA national average. First time exceeded $4/gal in four years.","date":"2026-04-05"},{"value":4.12,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-04-06"},{"value":4.14,"note":"AAA national average. Track B gas_aaa_weekly fetch failed; Track A value used as authoritative. First time national average exceeded $4/gal in four years.","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":4.164,"note":"AAA Gas Prices. First time in four years national average exceeded $4/gal (threshold crossed April 2, 2026). Track B fetch failed; Track A value used.","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":4.166,"note":"AAA national average; first time exceeded $4 since August 2022","date":"2026-04-09"},{"value":4.153,"note":"Track B gas_aaa_weekly fetch failed (page_content_empty); Track A AAA value of $4.153/gal used as authoritative.","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":4.123,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","source_publisher":"EIA / AAA via FRED","note":"Weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline price per gallon","date":"2026-04-13"}],"oil_brent":[{"date":"2019-01-01","price_am":53.8,"note":"2019 start. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2019-04-25","price_am":74.6,"note":"2019 high; Iran sanctions. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2019-12-01","price_am":64.3,"note":"2019 year-end. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2020-01-08","price_am":68.9,"note":"Soleimani strike spike. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2020-04-01","price_am":22.7,"note":"COVID crash + Saudi price war. WTI briefly negative Apr 20. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2020-06-01","price_am":38.3,"note":"Recovery beginning. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2020-12-01","price_am":49.3,"note":"Year-end recovery. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2021-01-01","price_am":51.8,"note":"2021 start. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2021-06-01","price_am":71.4,"note":"Demand recovery; OPEC+ restraint. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2021-10-01","price_am":83.5,"note":"Pre-Ukraine run-up. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2022-01-01","price_am":78,"note":"2022 start. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2022-02-24","price_am":99.1,"note":"Russia invades Ukraine. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2022-03-08","price_am":127.98,"note":"2022 peak; near all-time Brent high. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2022-06-14","price_am":123.6,"note":"Second 2022 peak. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2022-09-01","price_am":93.9,"note":"SPR release + recession fears. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2022-12-01","price_am":82.8,"note":"Year-end 2022. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2023-01-01","price_am":78.1,"note":"2023 start. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2023-04-01","price_am":79.8,"note":"Stable; OPEC+ cuts announced. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2023-09-27","price_am":96.6,"note":"2023 peak; Saudi voluntary cuts. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2023-12-01","price_am":78.9,"note":"Year-end 2023; demand fears. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2024-01-01","price_am":77,"note":"2024 start. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2024-04-12","price_am":90.5,"note":"2024 high; Iran-Israel tensions. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2024-07-01","price_am":85,"note":"Mid-2024. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2024-09-10","price_am":69.2,"note":"2024 low; demand fears + Libya supply return. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2024-12-01","price_am":72,"note":"Year-end 2024. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2025-01-01","price_am":74.6,"note":"2025 start. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2025-04-01","price_am":73,"note":"Stable early 2025. Source: EIA estimate."},{"date":"2025-07-01","price_am":75,"note":"Mid-2025. Source: EIA estimate."},{"date":"2025-10-01","price_am":72,"note":"Fall 2025; tariff-demand concerns. Source: EIA estimate."},{"date":"2025-12-01","price_am":73,"note":"Year-end 2025; pre-Iran baseline. Source: EIA."},{"date":"2026-01-01","note":"Approx pre-war; crude relatively unchanged from end of 2025 per AAA","price_am":72},{"date":"2026-01-15","note":"Stable","price_am":72},{"date":"2026-02-01","note":"Stable","price_am":73},{"date":"2026-02-19","note":"AAA noted Iran tensions could drive up crude","price_am":74},{"date":"2026-02-28","note":"War begins","price_am":78},{"date":"2026-03-05","note":"Hormuz panic spike (intraday high); AAA said mid-$70s range in weekly report — likely reporting lag vs. intraday","price_am":120},{"date":"2026-03-08","note":"Post-spike; Hormuz shut confirmed","price_am":95},{"date":"2026-03-10","note":"Pullback on de-escalation signals from Trump","price_am":88},{"date":"2026-03-13","note":"Kharg Island struck; reversal began","price_am":100},{"date":"2026-03-15","note":"Resumed climb; IEA SPR release (400M bbl) insufficient to offset","price_am":103.5},{"date":"2026-03-16","note":"Morning price; opened at $105.26. WTI $98.71 (EIA weekly close Mar 14). IEA: largest supply disruption in oil market history. Gulf production cut at least 10 mb/d.","price_am":102.14},{"date":"2026-03-18","price_am":108.78,"price_range_low":100.35,"price_range_high":108.78,"note":"Surge on Iran South Pars attack + Israel killed Iran top security official. WTI $94-$97."},{"date":"2026-03-19","price_am":113.71,"price_range_low":108.65,"price_range_high":119,"note":"Hit $119 intraday; closed $108.65 after Netanyahu Hormuz claim. Kpler warns $150 by end of March."},{"date":"2026-03-20","price_am":107.4,"price_range_low":105.06,"price_range_high":112.19,"note":"Closed $112.19 (new closing high). Iraq declared force majeure. Kuwait refineries attacked. Saudi warns $180 if disruption lasts through April."},{"date":"2026-03-21","price_am":110,"note":"Fri close ~$110. $112.19 remains closing high (Mar 20). Trump 48-hr Hormuz ultimatum on Mar 22."},{"date":"2026-03-23","price_am":114,"price_range_low":96,"price_range_high":114.43,"note":"Opened $114+, crashed 10.92% to settle $99.94 (first close below $100 since Mar 11) after Trump claimed productive talks; WTI settled $88.13"},{"date":"2026-03-24","price_am":102.47,"price_range_low":100,"price_range_high":104.49,"note":"AM $102.47 (Fortune); settled ~$104.49 (+4.5% from Monday's $99.94 crash); rebounded above $100"},{"date":"2026-03-25","price_am":99.75,"price_range_low":99,"price_range_high":102.5,"note":"Volatile on ceasefire signals. CNBC mid-day $102.22 (-2.2%). Goldman: trading on geopolitical risk premium."},{"date":"2026-03-26","price_am":105.85,"price_range_low":103,"price_range_high":108,"note":"AM $105.85 (Fortune); settled ~$108 (Bloomberg). S&P 500 -1.7% to lowest since Sep. Trump said he doesn't care about deal. Market in backwardation."},{"date":"2026-03-28","price_am":112.57,"note":"Brent closed $112.57 Fri (+4.22%). WTI $99.64 (+5.46%), briefly touched $100.04 intraday. Sat midday ~$104. Dubai physical up 76% vs Brent futures 36%."},{"value":121.88,"note":"EIA via Track B. Lag flag set.","date":"2026-03-30"},{"date":"2026-03-31","price_am":107.96,"price_range_low":106.35,"price_range_high":109.44,"note":"Down from $112.78 Mon on WSJ de-escalation report; range $106-111","close":108},{"date":"2026-04-01","price_am":104.86,"price_range_low":98.52,"price_range_high":105.93,"note":"Fortune AM; sharp pullback from $118.35 settle Mar 31 on Trump exit signals/NATO threat; Investing.com close ~$102"},{"value":127.61,"note":"EIA Brent crude spot price. Elevated price consistent with U.S. naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz beginning April 13, 2026.","date":"2026-04-02"}],"oil_brent_spot":[{"value":77.24,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-02"},{"value":83.28,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-03"},{"value":81.56,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-04"},{"value":88.59,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-05"},{"value":95.74,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-06"},{"value":94.35,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-09"},{"value":89.84,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-10"},{"value":90.98,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-11"},{"value":102.38,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-12"},{"value":103.23,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-13"},{"value":101.04,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-16"},{"value":108.39,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-17"},{"value":118.09,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-18"},{"value":111.05,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-19"},{"value":118.42,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-20"},{"value":103.79,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-23"},{"value":108.42,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-24"},{"value":109.14,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-25"},{"value":113.39,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-26"},{"value":121.47,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-27"},{"value":121.88,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-30"},{"value":126.69,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-03-31"},{"value":119.56,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-04-01"},{"value":127.61,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":138.21,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":122.11,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":119.03,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-04-09"},{"value":119.07,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":123.28,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","source_publisher":"EIA via FRED","note":"Europe Brent spot price FOB, US dollars per barrel","date":"2026-04-13"}]},"farm_input_costs":{"farm_diesel":[{"date":"2026-03-06","price_avg":4.15,"price_range_low":3.45,"price_range_high":5.1,"note":"Pre-war baseline range"},{"date":"2026-03-13","price_avg":4.53,"price_range_low":3.6,"price_range_high":5.6,"note":"War week 2"},{"date":"2026-03-20","price_avg":5.29,"price_range_low":3.97,"price_range_high":6.35,"note":"USDA AMS Farm Production Cost Report. Up $0.76 week-over-week. Farm diesel >$5 is a threshold number. Massive regional disparity."}],"fertilizer_urea":[{"date":"2026-01-15","price_per_ton":389,"note":"Early 2025 baseline (New Orleans)"},{"date":"2026-03-20","price_per_ton":450,"note":"New Orleans. Three of top 10 global urea exporters ship through Hormuz."},{"date":"2026-03-25","price_per_ton":460,"note":"DTN/Progressive Farmer. 6 of 8 major fertilizers higher in third week of March. UAN28 up 15% MoM. DAP $851/ton (+11% YoY)."}],"prices_paid_vs_received":[{"prices_paid_index":115,"prices_received_index":95,"gap":20,"note":"Gap at 10-year high. Farm income projected to decline for 4th consecutive year.","date":"2025-12"}]},"foreign_policy":{"iran_conflict_status":[{"value":1,"source_url":"https://time.com/article/2026/03/10/us-service-members-killed-iran-war-casualties/","source_publisher":"TIME","note":"Drone strike on Port Shuaiba, Kuwait killed 6 US soldiers from 103rd Expeditionary Sustainment Command","date":"2026-03-01"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/03/13/g-s1-113563/us-iran-war","source_publisher":"NPR","note":"US bombed Iran's main oil export hub; Pentagon said roughly 140 US personnel wounded to date","date":"2026-03-13"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://theintercept.com/2026/04/08/us-military-casualties-wounded-iran-war/","source_publisher":"The Intercept / Military Times","note":"Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base destroyed an E-3 Sentry and damaged refueling aircraft; at least 15 US wounded","date":"2026-03-27"},{"value":null,"note":"U.S.-Israeli military attacks on Iran occurred approximately six months before April 2026 (circa October 2025). No current-status update, de-escalation reporting, or approval polling available as of April 5, 2026. Fortune (April 5) references conflict in context of DOGE ENR cuts, noting lost energy-diplomacy expertise during period of oil and energy disruptions. Source: Fortune, April 5, 2026.","date":"2026-04-05"},{"value":null,"note":"Track A reports zero mentions of Iran, war status, or escalations as of April 6, 2026. Track B maintains Silver Bulletin Iran war approval tracker (net -17.0). Conflict status unclear; monitor for consistency.","date":"2026-04-06"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next","source_publisher":"Al Jazeera","note":"Trump announced the two-week ceasefire from Washington the evening prior","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next","source_publisher":"Al Jazeera","note":"Two-week Pakistan-brokered US-Iran-Israel ceasefire took effect in Middle East","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":null,"note":"Two-week regional ceasefire active as of April 10, 2026. High-level U.S.-Iran talks scheduled in Islamabad with VP Vance, Witkoff, Kushner. Iranian FM Araghchi states no surrender, vows retaliation. Ceasefire stressed by Israeli operations in Lebanon. Netanyahu agrees to direct talks with Lebanese government. Trump threatens Iran over Strait of Hormuz shipping fees; no blockade reported. Net approval of Iran military operation: -15.1 (Silver Bulletin, April 10).","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","source_publisher":"Wikipedia 2026 Iran war","note":"Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports; 23 ships later turned back","date":"2026-04-13"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","source_publisher":"Wikipedia 2026 Iran war","note":"Trump announced a 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah","date":"2026-04-16"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","source_publisher":"Wikipedia 2026 Iran war","note":"Iran announced re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US naval blockade","date":"2026-04-18"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war","source_publisher":"Al Jazeera / Wikipedia","note":"Day 51: Iran refused to reopen Hormuz; Israeli soldier killed in south Lebanon; ceasefire expiration looms","date":"2026-04-19"}]},"fundraising":{"data":[{"date":"2026-03-04","entity":"Fairshake PAC","metric":"war_chest","value":191000000,"note":"$191M; spent $40M+ against Brown in 2024"}],"upcoming":[{"date":"2026-04-15","event":"Q1 FEC filing deadline","watch":"Platner vs Mills cash; Talarico vs Cornyn/Paxton burn rates; Osborn small-dollar total"}]},"generic_ballot":{"polls":[{"date":"2026-01-04","pollster":"Morning Consult","value":5,"tier":2,"screen":"RV","note":"Pre-cycle baseline"},{"date":"2026-02-20","pollster":"Morning Consult","value":3,"tier":2,"screen":"RV"},{"date":"2026-02-22","pollster":"Harvard-Harris","value":0,"tier":3,"screen":"LV","note":"FLAG: T3 outlier; prior month D+4"},{"date":"2026-03-05","pollster":"Morning Consult","value":2,"tier":2,"screen":"RV","note":"Independents D+11, moderates D+20"},{"date":"2026-03-08","pollster":"Cygnal","value":4,"tier":null,"screen":null},{"date":"2026-03-10","pollster":"Ballotpedia avg","value":4,"tier":null,"screen":null,"note":"Aggregator average"},{"date":"2026-03-15","pollster":"Morning Consult","value":3,"tier":2,"screen":"RV","note":"Mar 9-15, 26,634 RV. D 45%, R 42%. Independents D+11, moderates D+21."},{"date":"2026-03-16","pollster":"Echelon Insights","value":5,"tier":2,"screen":"RV","note":"A-rated, Mar 12-16. D 49%, R 44%. 1-pt dip for D, 2-pt decline for R from prior month."},{"date":"2026-03-17","pollster":"Emerson College","value":7,"tier":1,"screen":"LV","note":"T1 LV, Mar 16-17. D 49%, R 42%. Independents D+18 (49-31). Hispanics D+21 (53-32)."},{"date":"2026-03-22","pollster":"Survey 160","value":10,"tier":3,"screen":"RV","note":"Methodological research poll. D+10."},{"date":"2026-03-23","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","value":8,"tier":3,"screen":"LV","note":"D+8 per Semafor. Commissioned poll - flag Tier 3."},{"date":"2026-03-24","pollster":"SIN/Verasight","value":6,"tier":"A-rated","screen":"RV","note":"Mar 16-18; D+6 (49-43 RV); Morris: out-party gains avg 5 pts Feb-Nov in midterms"},{"value":5,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/midterm-polls-have-good-news-great","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Late-March Silver Bulletin commentary value cited for generic ballot","date":"2026-03-25"},{"value":6,"note":"RealClearPolling average as of run date. Sign convention assumed Republican advantage per site convention.","date":"2026-04-06"},{"value":5.8,"note":"RealClearPolitics Generic Ballot Average as of April 8, 2026. Sign convention: positive value indicates Democratic advantage (D+5.8).","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":5.3,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Weighted Silver Bulletin average in mid-April before recent movement","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":5.4,"note":"RealClearPolitics generic ballot average. Democratic advantage of +5.4 points.","date":"2026-04-14"}],"silver_bulletin_avg":[{"date":"2025-06-01","value":3,"note":"Mid-2025 baseline; Dems leading. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-08-01","value":3.5,"note":"Summer 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":4,"note":"Fall 2025; widening. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-11-15","value":4.5,"note":"Post-VA/NJ governors; environment solidifying. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-12-01","value":5,"note":"Dec 2025; approaching D+5 threshold. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2026-01-08","value":5.3,"note":"Tracker launch; D+5.3 (Silver Bulletin, Jan 8)"},{"date":"2026-01-22","value":5.3,"note":"Stable at D+5.3 per Silver Bulletin Model Talk post"},{"date":"2026-02-01","value":5.3,"note":"Fluctuating D+5.3 to D+5.6 since beginning of Feb (Silver Bulletin)"},{"date":"2026-02-09","value":5.4},{"date":"2026-03-04","value":5.4},{"date":"2026-03-09","value":5.4},{"date":"2026-03-12","value":5.5,"note":"No Iran war movement noted by Nate Silver"},{"date":"2026-03-14","value":5.5},{"date":"2026-03-16","value":5.5,"note":"Flat; no Iran war movement confirmed through Day 17"},{"date":"2026-03-25","value":5.1,"note":"D+5.1 (Mar 19 update). Down from D+5.4 prior week. Range D+5.0 to D+5.6 since start of year."},{"date":"2026-03-29","value":5.5,"note":"D+5.5 (Mar 29 update). Up from D+5.1. Driven by Quinnipiac D+11, Survey 160 D+10, GSG D+8, Emerson D+8; counterbalanced by Ipsos, YouGov, MC at D+2 to D+4."},{"date":"2026-03-31","dem_lead":5.5,"note":"Up from D+5.1"},{"value":5.7,"note":"RealClearPolitics generic ballot average. Democratic advantage.","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":5.8,"note":"RealClearPolling Generic Ballot Average, April 8, 2026. D+5.8.","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":5.4,"note":"Silver Bulletin generic ballot average; D+5.4","date":"2026-04-09"},{"value":5.4,"note":"RealClearPolling generic ballot average. Updated from 2026-04-09.","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":5.4,"note":"RealClearPolling Generic Ballot Average. Democratic advantage.","date":"2026-04-12"},{"value":5.6,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Dems 52.8 vs GOP 47.2 in Silver Bulletin two-way share","date":"2026-04-19"}]},"governance":{"doge_spending_cuts":[{"value":0.47,"note":"DOGE.gov reported that over the seven days ending approximately April 4, 2026, federal agencies terminated 312 contracts with a combined ceiling value of 2.8 billion, achieving 470 million in savings.","date":"2026-04-04"},{"value":22.4,"note":"DOGE reported additional 1.9% reduction in annual non-defense federal obligations (~$25B below 2024 levels per doge.gov and X post). Concurrent: HHS rehiring 450+ CDC employees; IRS, FDA, State, HUD rehiring. U.S. District Judge Denise Cote restricted DOGE database access (Social Security data). CBS News reported discrepancies in DOGE 'wall of receipts.' [Note: publication date 2026-06-08 is anomalous relative to run date 2026-04-04; treat as search artifact or erroneous future dating.]","date":"2026-06-08"}],"executive_actions":[{"value":null,"note":"Executive order 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections' signed March 31, 2026. Alleged to direct federal agency to block election mail from eligible registered voters; instructs DOJ to prosecute state/local election officials allowing mail-in voting by individuals not on DHS-approved list. Litigation filed April 3, 2026 (D.D.C. 26-cv-01151) by Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law.","date":"2026-03-31"},{"value":null,"note":"Three executive actions in April 2-8, 2026 window: (1) Proclamation on aluminum, steel, copper imports (April 2); (2) Executive Order on pharmaceutical imports (April 3); (3) Memorandum on college sports NIL schemes and pay-for-play (April 8). Also DHS back pay memorandum for 35,000 employees (April 3).","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":29,"source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026","source_publisher":"Federal Register","note":"YTD count of 2026 executive orders signed by Trump as of mid-April per Federal Register listing (EO 14372 to 14400)","date":"2026-04-30"}],"voting_rights_litigation":[{"value":1,"note":"Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law filed complaint in D.D.C. Case 1:26-cv-01151 challenging President's EO of March 31, 2026 ('Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections'). Allegations: VRA violations via DHS voter eligibility list, USPS mail blocking, DOJ prosecution threats. Concurrent: DOJ demanding voter data from 25+ states; Judge David Carter ruled (Jan 2026) California demand violates federal/state privacy law; DOJ privacy officer resigned amid DHS data-sharing preparations (OPB, April 3, 2026).","date":"2026-04-03"}]},"housing":{"median_sale_price":[{"value":414500,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS","source_publisher":"Census Bureau via FRED","note":"Quarterly median sales price of houses sold in the United States, dollars","date":"2024-04-01"},{"value":415300,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS","source_publisher":"Census Bureau via FRED","note":"Quarterly median sales price of houses sold in the United States, dollars","date":"2024-07-01"},{"value":419300,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS","source_publisher":"Census Bureau via FRED","note":"Quarterly median sales price of houses sold in the United States, dollars","date":"2024-10-01"},{"value":423100,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS","source_publisher":"Census Bureau via FRED","note":"Quarterly median sales price of houses sold in the United States, dollars","date":"2025-01-01"},{"value":416100,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS","source_publisher":"Census Bureau via FRED","note":"Quarterly median sales price of houses sold in the United States, dollars","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":410100,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS","source_publisher":"Census Bureau via FRED","note":"Quarterly median sales price of houses sold in the United States, dollars","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":405300,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS","source_publisher":"Census Bureau via FRED","note":"Quarterly median sales price of houses sold in the United States, dollars","date":"2025-10-01"}]},"inflation":{"cpi_core_yoy":[{"value":2.78,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":2.77,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-05-01"},{"value":2.91,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-06-01"},{"value":3.05,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":3.11,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-08-01"},{"value":3.02,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-09-01"},{"value":2.6,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-11-01"},{"value":2.65,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":2.51,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2026-01-01"},{"value":2.47,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":2.6,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U less food and energy, SA) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI less food and energy SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599","date":"2026-03-01"}],"cpi_headline_yoy":[{"value":2.33,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":2.38,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-05-01"},{"value":2.68,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-06-01"},{"value":2.74,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":2.94,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-08-01"},{"value":3.02,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-09-01"},{"value":2.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-11-01"},{"value":2.65,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":2.39,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2026-01-01"},{"value":2.43,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":3.29,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","source_publisher":"BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted) via FRED","note":"12-month change computed from CPI-U SA level; BLS release USDL-26-0599 covers March 2026","date":"2026-03-01"}]},"inflation_expectations":{"five_year":[{"value":3.1,"note":"","date":"2025-09"},{"value":3,"note":"","date":"2025-10"},{"value":3.2,"note":"","date":"2025-11"},{"value":3,"note":"","date":"2025-12"},{"value":3.2,"note":"","date":"2026-01"},{"value":3.3,"note":"","date":"2026-02"},{"value":3.2,"note":"Final March. Slightly down from Feb, suggesting consumers still view some inflation as temporary.","date":"2026-03"}],"one_year":[{"value":2.7,"note":"Pre-tariff baseline","date":"2025-09"},{"value":2.7,"note":"Stable","date":"2025-10"},{"value":2.6,"note":"Post-election dip","date":"2025-11"},{"value":2.8,"note":"Tariff announcement effect","date":"2025-12"},{"value":3.3,"note":"Sharp jump on tariff implementation","date":"2026-01"},{"value":3.4,"note":"Continued rise; 6 months of increases stalled here","date":"2026-02"},{"value":3.8,"note":"Final March. Largest monthly increase since Apr 2025. Year-ahead gas price expectations surged ~fivefold from prior month, highest since Jun 2022.","date":"2026-03"}]},"iran_war":{"us_killed":[{"value":6,"source_url":"https://time.com/article/2026/03/10/us-service-members-killed-iran-war-casualties/","source_publisher":"TIME","note":"Initial drone strike on Port Shuaiba killed 6 US soldiers","date":"2026-03-01"},{"value":7,"source_url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/03/13/g-s1-113563/us-iran-war","source_publisher":"NPR","note":"Cumulative killed after March 1 Port Shuaiba strike plus March 4 Marine non-hostile, March 6 National Guard soldier, March 9 Sgt. Pennington","date":"2026-03-13"},{"value":15,"source_url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_2026_Iran_war","source_publisher":"Wikipedia casualties article","note":"Final reported total per Wikipedia casualties article: 15 killed including 6 at Port Shuaiba, 6 in KC-135 crash, 2 non-combat, 1 succumbed to earlier wounds","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":13,"source_url":"https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/08/pentagon-data-13-us-troops-killed-346-wounded-in-operation-epic-fury/","source_publisher":"Military Times / DCAS","note":"DCAS count of 13 killed 40 days after Operation Epic Fury began; Pentagon lower figure","date":"2026-04-08"}],"us_wounded":[{"value":30,"source_url":"https://time.com/article/2026/03/10/us-service-members-killed-iran-war-casualties/","source_publisher":"TIME","note":"Over 30 wounded in Port Shuaiba drone attack on Day 1","date":"2026-03-01"},{"value":140,"source_url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/03/13/g-s1-113563/us-iran-war","source_publisher":"NPR","note":"Roughly 140 US personnel wounded as of mid-March bombing of Iran oil hub","date":"2026-03-13"},{"value":155,"source_url":"https://theintercept.com/2026/04/08/us-military-casualties-wounded-iran-war/","source_publisher":"The Intercept","note":"Running total after Prince Sultan Air Base strike added at least 15 wounded","date":"2026-03-27"},{"value":538,"source_url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_2026_Iran_war","source_publisher":"Wikipedia casualties article","note":"Total reported military wounded per Wikipedia casualties article; Pentagon DCAS figures lower at 357 to 372","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":381,"source_url":"https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/08/pentagon-data-13-us-troops-killed-346-wounded-in-operation-epic-fury/","source_publisher":"Military Times / DCAS","note":"CENTCOM wounded count 40 days into Operation Epic Fury","date":"2026-04-08"}]},"iran_war_approval":{"polls":[{"date":"2026-02-28","pollster":"YouGov snap","approve":34,"disapprove":44,"tier":2,"type":"iran_strikes"},{"date":"2026-03-01","pollster":"WaPo flash","stop":47,"continue":25,"unsure":28,"tier":null,"type":"continue_war"},{"date":"2026-03-03","pollster":"NPR/Marist","support_action":44,"oppose_action":56,"tier":1},{"date":"2026-03-07","pollster":"Quinnipiac","approve_handling":38,"disapprove_handling":57,"tier":2,"note":"74% oppose ground troops"},{"date":"2026-03-14","pollster":"Quincy Institute/TAC/Ipsos","approve":76,"disapprove":23,"tier":2,"type":"Trump voters only (804 2024 Trump voters)","note":"79% want quick end. Young MAGA 18-29: +8 support margin vs +53 overall. 55% concerned about gas prices."},{"date":"2026-03-17","pollster":"Emerson College","approve":40,"disapprove":47,"tier":1,"type":"support/oppose military action (LV)","note":"T1 LV Mar 16-17. 47% oppose, 40% support, 13% unsure. 63% think world war likely (up from 55% Mar 2025)."},{"date":"2026-03-19","pollster":"Reuters/Ipsos","approve":40,"disapprove":null,"tier":2,"type":"ground_troops","note":"Mar 17-19, 1,545 adults. 65% expect ground troops, 7% support. Overall Trump approval 40%, unchanged from Feb 28."},{"date":"2026-03-20","pollster":"Daily Mail/JL Partners","approve":null,"disapprove":null,"tier":3,"type":"blame attribution","note":"Mar 18-20. Independents oppose war 50-24. 54% would blame Trump for further gas price increases vs 20% blaming Iran."},{"date":"2026-03-22","pollster":"Pew Research","approve":37,"disapprove":61,"tier":1,"type":"handling","note":"Mar 16-22, 3,524 adults. 59% say wrong decision. 45% not going well. 40% say US less safe. R-leaning independents split 52/45."},{"date":"2026-03-23","pollster":"Fox News/Beacon","approve":36,"disapprove":64,"tier":2,"type":"handling","note":"Mar 20-23, 1,001 RV. 58% oppose war overall. R: 77% support (MAGA 90%, non-MAGA 52%)."},{"date":"2026-03-24","pollster":"Reuters/Ipsos","approve":null,"disapprove":61,"tier":2,"type":"strikes_disapprove","note":"61% disapprove of strikes. 75% R approve, 93% D disapprove."},{"date":"2026-03-31","pollster":"Silver Bulletin avg","approve":null,"disapprove":null,"net":-14.3,"tier":1,"type":"sb_average","note":"SB Iran war polling average net -14.3, lowest since war began"}]},"iran_war_casualties":{"timeline":[{"date":"2026-02-28","kia_hostile":0,"kia_non_hostile":0,"wounded":0,"note":"War begins"},{"date":"2026-03-09","kia_hostile":0,"kia_non_hostile":0,"wounded":null,"note":"No KIA reported as of Day 9"},{"date":"2026-03-12","kia_hostile":7,"kia_non_hostile":0,"wounded":140,"wounded_severe":8,"note":"5 from 103rd Sustainment Command, Des Moines IA"},{"date":"2026-03-14","kia_hostile":13,"kia_non_hostile":6,"wounded":140,"wounded_severe":8,"note":"Nearly doubled in 2 days; non-hostile = KC-135 crash, western Iraq"},{"date":"2026-03-17","kia_hostile":13,"kia_non_hostile":6,"wounded":140,"wounded_severe":8,"regional_dead_total":2200,"regional_dead_breakdown":"Iran 1,444; Lebanon 850; Israel 15; Iraq 29; Gulf states 20+","note":"Day 17. US KIA unchanged. Tehran strikes continuing; thick black smoke over capital. Iran claims ~700 missiles and 3,600 drones launched since war began. Israel: thousands of targets remaining, not working to a timetable. Mojtaba Khamenei ceasefire terms (reparations + guarantees) not engaged. Allied Hormuz coalition: UK, Germany, EU all declined. Dubai airport briefly shut (drone fuel tank fire). Trump-China summit (Mar 31) may be delayed."},{"date":"2026-03-18","day":19,"regional_dead_total":2200,"note":"Day 19. Iran strikes South Pars. Israel kills top security official. Oil $108+.","kia_hostile":13,"kia_non_hostile":6,"wounded":140},{"date":"2026-03-19","kia_hostile":13,"kia_non_hostile":6,"wounded":200,"note":"Day 20. ~200 wounded (180 RTD). Lebanon deaths nearing 1,000. Iran deaths: HRANA documented 3,114 by Mar 17 including 1,354 civilians. Gulf state deaths 21+."},{"date":"2026-03-20","kia_hostile":7,"kia_non_hostile":6,"wounded":200,"note":"Day 21. Cumulative. Israel strikes Caspian Sea and northern Iran (firsts). 2,500 Marines deploying. Lebanon >1,000 dead. Iran Red Crescent: 18,000+ injured. 2,200+ dead across region."},{"date":"2026-03-25","kia_hostile":13,"kia_non_hostile":2,"wounded":200,"note":"Day 26. Unchanged. Lebanon 1,072 killed, 2,966 wounded. Iran 1,500+ dead (Health Ministry). 82nd Airborne deploying."},{"date":"2026-03-27","kia_hostile":13,"kia_non_hostile":8,"wounded":303,"note":"Day 28. Arak reactor struck. Iran Red Crescent: ~1,900 dead, 20K injured. Lebanon 1,116. Regional total >3,000. 273 US wounded RTD."},{"date":"2026-03-28","kia_hostile":13,"kia_non_hostile":2,"wounded":315,"note":"Day 29. 12-15 additional wounded in Prince Sultan Air Base attack (6 BMs + 29 drones). KC-135 destroyed. Total wounded now 315+. Iran: ~1,900 killed, 20K+ injured. Lebanon: 1,189 killed, 3,315 wounded. Iraq: 99. Israel: 19 civilians + 4 IDF. Regional deaths exceed 3,000."},{"date":"2026-03-31","kia_hostile":7,"kia_non_hostile":6,"wounded":300,"note":"Pentagon briefing revised total to 13 KIA (6 Kuwait drone strike, 1 Saudi Arabia, 6 KC-135 crash Iraq), 300+ wounded."},{"date":"2026-04-02","kia_hostile":15,"wounded":520,"note":"Intercept reports 520+ wounded vs Pentagon 300+; 15 KIA confirmed (Wikipedia)"}]},"labor":{"avg_hourly_earnings":[{"value":36.12,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":36.28,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-05-01"},{"value":36.36,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-06-01"},{"value":36.47,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":36.62,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-08-01"},{"value":36.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-09-01"},{"value":36.85,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-10-01"},{"value":37,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-11-01"},{"value":37.02,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":37.15,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2026-01-01"},{"value":37.29,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":37.38,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003","source_publisher":"BLS CES via FRED","note":"Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, total private, dollars per hour","date":"2026-03-01"}],"unemployment_rate":[{"value":4.3,"note":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary, March 2026","date":"2026-03-01"}]},"market_sector_divergence":{"snapshots":[{"date":"2026-02-28","xle_ytd_pct":3.5,"spy_ytd_pct":2.1,"spread_pct":1.4,"note":"Pre-war baseline"},{"date":"2026-03-07","xle_ytd_pct":12,"spy_ytd_pct":-1.5,"spread_pct":13.5,"note":"First week of war; energy surges"},{"date":"2026-03-14","xle_ytd_pct":18,"spy_ytd_pct":-3,"spread_pct":21,"note":"Hormuz closure sustained"},{"date":"2026-03-21","xle_ytd_pct":25,"spy_ytd_pct":-4,"spread_pct":29,"note":"Oil above $108; talk-driven volatility"},{"date":"2026-03-28","xle_ytd_pct":32,"spy_ytd_pct":-5,"spread_pct":37,"note":"Brent closed $112.57. Energy only major sector in the green for Q1 2026. CFRA's Sam Stovall: energy stocks up 25%."},{"date":"2026-03-31","xle_ytd_pct":41,"spy_ytd_pct":-5,"spread_pct":46,"note":"Spread widened to ~46 pts. XLE +41% YTD per multiple sources. Oil down Tuesday on WSJ de-escalation report."}]},"markets":{"sp500":[{"value":6881.62,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-02"},{"value":6816.63,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-03"},{"value":6869.5,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-04"},{"value":6830.71,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-05"},{"value":6740.02,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-06"},{"value":6795.99,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-09"},{"value":6781.48,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-10"},{"value":6775.8,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-11"},{"value":6672.62,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-12"},{"value":6632.19,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-13"},{"value":6699.38,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-16"},{"value":6716.09,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-17"},{"value":6624.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-18"},{"value":6606.49,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-19"},{"value":6506.48,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-20"},{"value":6581,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-23"},{"value":6556.37,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-24"},{"value":6591.9,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-25"},{"value":6477.16,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-03-26"},{"value":6368.85,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 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index","date":"2026-04-06"},{"value":6616.85,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":6782.81,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":6824.66,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-04-09"},{"value":6816.89,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":6886.24,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-04-13"},{"value":6967.38,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-04-14"},{"value":7022.95,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","source_publisher":"FRED (S&P Dow Jones Indices)","note":"Daily closing value of the S&P 500 index","date":"2026-04-15"}]},"politics":{"generic_ballot":[{"date":"2026-04-25","value":44,"as_of":"2026-04-25","source_hash":"bh_inline_rcp_generic_ballot_2026_04_25_llm-fetch-v1"},{"date":"2026-04-26","value":47,"as_of":"2026-04-26","source_hash":"bh_inline_rcp_generic_ballot_2026_04_26_llm-fetch-v1"}]},"prices":{"cpi_food_at_home":[{"value":311.44,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":312.296,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-05-01"},{"value":312.982,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-06-01"},{"value":313.035,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":314.647,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-08-01"},{"value":315.54,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-09-01"},{"value":315,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-11-01"},{"value":316.982,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":317.589,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2026-01-01"},{"value":318.985,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":318.462,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11","source_publisher":"BLS CPI-U food at home SA via FRED","note":"CPI for food at home, seasonally adjusted index level (1982-84 = 100)","date":"2026-03-01"}]},"primary_results":{"results":[{"date":"2026-03-03","state":"NC","party":"R","race":"Senate","result":"Whatley (Trump-endorsed)"}],"upcoming":[{"date":"2026-05-26","state":"TX","party":"R","race":"Senate runoff","candidates":"Cornyn vs Paxton"},{"date":"2026-06-02","state":"MT","party":"R","race":"Senate primary","candidates":"Alme vs Calhoun vs WalkingChild"},{"date":"2026-06-09","state":"ME","party":"D","race":"Senate primary","candidates":"Platner vs Mills"},{"date":"2026-08-04","state":"MN","party":"D","race":"Senate primary","candidates":"Flanagan vs Craig"}]},"race_polling":{"GA_senate":[{"value":49,"source_url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/georgia-2026-poll-senator-ossoff-starts-re-election-near-50-and-outpaces-gop-field/","source_publisher":"Emerson College Polling","note":"Ossoff 49 vs Dooley 41; widest Emerson Republican matchup","date":"2026-03-01"},{"value":3,"note":"Emerson poll (March 30, 2026): Ossoff (D) 47, Carter (R) 44. Ossoff +3 in general election matchup.","date":"2026-03-30"},{"value":null,"note":"Emerson: Ossoff (D) 49%, Dooley (R) 41%, Ossoff +8. Inside Elections rates seat Toss-up.","date":"2026-04-02"}],"ME_senate":{"general":[{"date":"2026-02-20","pollster":"Pan Atlantic","matchup":"Mills vs Collins","dem":44,"gop":44,"margin":0},{"date":"2026-03-05","pollster":"Quantus Insights","matchup":"Platner vs Collins","dem":48.6,"gop":41.8,"margin":6.8,"tier":"T3","screen":"LV","note":"800 LV. Also: Mills vs Collins: Collins 44.6, Mills 43.0."},{"value":48,"source_url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/930/","source_publisher":"Maine People's Resource Center","note":"Platner 48 vs Collins 39 general matchup; late-March fieldwork, 12 pct undecided","date":"2026-03-22"},{"date":"2026-03-23","pollster":"Emerson","matchup":"Mills vs Collins","dem":46,"gop":43,"margin":3,"tier":"T1","screen":"LV","note":"1,075 LV, MOE 2.9. 4-pt electability gap vs Platner matchup."},{"value":52,"note":"Emerson College (n=750 LV). Collins (R) 43.","date":"2026-04-01"},{"value":7,"note":"Four polls: Emerson Platner +7, Quantus Platner +7, Pan Atlantic Platner +4, UNH Platner +11. Average lead 7.25; Platner leads across all four pollsters in general election matchups.","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":46,"source_url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/maine-2026-poll-platner-leads-gov-mills-democrats-lead-sen-collins-in-maine/","source_publisher":"Emerson College Polling","note":"Mills 46 vs Collins 43 head-to-head alternate matchup from same April Emerson survey","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":null,"note":"MPRC poll, April 7-10, 2026: Collins 45, Mills 42 (Collins +3). Tier 1. Track B returned page_content_empty; Track A values used.","date":"2026-04-10"}],"primary":[{"date":"2025-12-01","pollster":"Unknown","result":"Mills +10 (approx)","note":"Referenced in document; exact source unclear"},{"date":"2026-02-20","pollster":"Pan Atlantic","result":"Platner 46%, Mills 39%","note":"n=810; probably closer to real state"},{"date":"2026-03-05","pollster":"Quantus Insights","matchup":"Platner vs Mills","dem_platner":43.3,"dem_mills":38,"note":"800 LV. 18.7% undecided."},{"date":"2026-03-23","pollster":"Emerson","matchup":"Platner vs Mills","dem":55,"gop":28,"margin":27,"tier":"T1","screen":"LV","note":"530 likely D primary voters, MOE 4.2. Men: Platner +41 (63-22). Women: Platner +18 (50-32). Conducted after Mills' negative ad."},{"value":52,"note":"Emerson College poll n=750 LV","date":"2026-04-01"},{"value":55,"note":"Emerson College Polling/PIX11/Emerson (via RealClearPolling). Democratic primary: Platner 55%, Mills 28%, LaFlamme 2%, Costello 1%. Platner +27. Sample size not specified.","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":33,"note":"MPRC poll released April 7, 2026. Democratic primary: Platner 61%, Mills 28%, Platner +33.","date":"2026-04-07"}]},"MI_senate":[{"date":"2026-01-15","pollster":"Emerson (T1)","matchup":"El-Sayed vs Rogers","margin":0},{"value":43,"source_url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mallory-mcmorrow-tied-for-lead-in-democratic-senate-primary/","source_publisher":"Emerson College Polling / WOOD-TV","note":"El-Sayed and Rogers tied at 43; same Emerson survey","date":"2026-04-10"}],"NC_senate":[{"date":"2025-07-01","pollster":"Emerson (T1)","matchup":"Cooper vs Whatley","dem":47,"gop":41,"margin":6},{"date":"2026-02-01","pollster":"Change Research","matchup":"Cooper vs Whatley","dem":50,"gop":40,"margin":10},{"value":47,"source_url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/north-carolina-2026-poll-cooper-starts-us-senate-race-with-six-point-lead-and-clear-name-recognition-advantage-over-whatley/","source_publisher":"Emerson College Polling","note":"Cooper 47 vs Whatley 41 initial Emerson survey of the cycle","date":"2026-02-15"},{"date":"2026-03-04","pollster":"RCP avg","matchup":"Cooper vs Whatley","margin":9.6,"note":"Aggregator"},{"value":47,"source_url":"https://carolinaforward.org/blog/april-2025-poll/","source_publisher":"Public Policy Polling","note":"Cooper 47 vs Whatley 44 within the margin; fieldwork March 13 to 14","date":"2026-03-14"},{"value":49,"source_url":"https://www.carolinajournal.com/poll-cooper-holds-wide-early-lead-over-whatley-in-nc-senate-race/","source_publisher":"Carolina Journal","note":"Cooper 49 vs Whatley 41 likely voters; fieldwork March 22 to 23","date":"2026-03-23"},{"value":48,"source_url":"https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_ba1a5c16-4184-4a7a-8f7a-9f6a1012bad5.html","source_publisher":"Catawba College / YouGov","note":"Cooper 48 vs Whatley 34 among likely voters; released late March 2026","date":"2026-03-31"},{"value":50,"source_url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/election-2026-cooper-leads-whatley-180300394.html","source_publisher":"High Point University Poll","note":"Cooper 50 vs Whatley 42 general election matchup; fieldwork Mar 26 to Apr 6","date":"2026-04-01"},{"value":null,"note":"Carolina Journal/Harper poll, April 2, 2026: Cooper 49, Whatley 41 (Cooper +8). Tier 1. Track B returned page_content_empty; Track A value used.","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":null,"note":"Cooper 49%, Whatley 44% (Cooper +5). Source: RealClearPolling.","date":"2026-04-07"}],"OH_senate":[{"value":45,"source_url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2026/","source_publisher":"Emerson College Polling","note":"Husted starts with a six-point edge over Brown; initial Emerson matchup","date":"2026-02-20"},{"value":47,"source_url":"https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/ohio","source_publisher":"On Message Inc","note":"Brown 47 vs Husted 45 among GOP pollster; fieldwork March 3 to 8","date":"2026-03-05"},{"value":46,"source_url":"https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/ohio","source_publisher":"Quantus Insights","note":"Husted up 1 over Brown; fieldwork March 13 to 14","date":"2026-03-13"}],"OH_special":[{"date":"2025-08-01","pollster":"Emerson (T1)","matchup":"Brown vs Husted","dem":44,"gop":50,"margin":-6},{"date":"2025-09-01","pollster":"Hart Research/OFT (T3)","matchup":"Brown vs Husted","dem":48,"gop":45,"margin":3,"note":"Commissioned by Ohio Federation of Teachers"},{"date":"2025-10-01","pollster":"BGSU/DPPRN","matchup":"Brown vs Husted","dem":49,"gop":48,"margin":1},{"date":"2025-12-01","pollster":"Emerson (T1)","matchup":"Brown vs Husted","dem":46,"gop":49,"margin":-3},{"date":"2026-03-04","pollster":"RCP avg","matchup":"Brown vs Husted","margin":-1,"note":"Trend moving toward Brown"},{"date":"2026-03-08","pollster":"OnMessage/Insurance Watchdog Coalition","matchup":"Brown vs Husted","dem":47,"gop":45,"margin":2,"tier":"T2/3 (GOP firm, partisan sponsor)","screen":"LV","note":"First 2026 poll with Brown ahead (within MOE +-4). 600 LV. Healthcare costs top concern (72%)."},{"value":8,"note":"Emerson College poll. Moody (R) leads Vindman (D) 46-38 (Moody +8). Three Emerson polls conducted April 2, 2026, tested Florida Senate special election matchups.","date":"2026-04-02"}],"TX_senate":[{"date":"2026-01-15","pollster":"UH Hobby School","matchup":"Talarico vs Cornyn","dem":45,"gop":46,"margin":-1}]},"race_ratings":{"house_notable":[{"date":"2026-03-04","race":"NC-11","old":"Safe R","new":"Likely R","forecaster":"Sabato"},{"date":"2026-03-06","race":"CO-05","old":"Solid R","new":"Likely R","forecaster":"Cook"},{"date":"2026-03-12","race":"TX-23","old":"Safe R","new":"Likely R","forecaster":"Cook"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings","source_publisher":"Cook Political Report","note":"Cook House shifts: OH-01 from Toss-up to Lean D; NJ-09 and OH-13 from Lean to Likely D; PA-08 from Lean R to Toss-up; CO-03 from Likely to Safe R; FL-27 from Safe to Likely R","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":null,"note":"No House ratings changes from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections in 14-day window ending 2026-04-10. Daily floor update.","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings","source_publisher":"Cook Political Report","note":"Cook Senate shifts: NC from Toss-up to Lean D; GA from Toss-up to Lean D; OH from Lean R to Toss-up; NE from Safe R to Likely R","date":"2026-04-13"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/senate-rating-change-maine-moves-from-leans-republican-to-toss-up/","source_publisher":"Sabato's Crystal Ball","note":"Sabato moved Maine Senate from Leans Republican to Toss-up ahead of Platner primary consolidation","date":"2026-04-15"}],"senate":{"AK":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Lean R"}],"GA":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Toss-Up","sabato":"Lean D"}],"IA":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Lean R to Likely R"}],"ME":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Toss-Up","sabato":"Toss-Up"}],"MI":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Toss-Up"}],"MN":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Lean D"}],"MT":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Safe R"},{"date":"2026-03-09","cook":"Likely R","note":"Moved after Daines retirement + Bodnar independent candidacy"}],"NC":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Toss-Up","sabato":"Toss-Up"}],"NE":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Lean R"}],"NH":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Lean D"}],"OH_special":[{"date":"2026-03-04","cook":"Lean R","sabato":"Lean R"}],"TX":[{"date":"2025-07-01","cook":"Likely R","note":"Moved from Solid R due to Paxton primary threat"}]}},"rates":{"fed_funds_target":[{"value":4.5,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU","source_publisher":"Federal Reserve via FRED","note":"Upper limit of the federal funds target rate on the effective date of each change","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":4.25,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU","source_publisher":"Federal Reserve via FRED","note":"Upper limit of the federal funds target rate on the effective date of each change","date":"2025-09-18"},{"value":4,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU","source_publisher":"Federal Reserve via FRED","note":"Upper limit of the federal funds target rate on the effective date of each change","date":"2025-10-30"},{"value":3.75,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU","source_publisher":"Federal Reserve via FRED","note":"Upper limit of the federal funds target rate on the effective date of each change","date":"2025-12-11"}]},"sentiment":{"umich_consumer":[{"value":52.2,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":52.2,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-05-01"},{"value":60.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-06-01"},{"value":61.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":58.2,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-08-01"},{"value":55.1,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-09-01"},{"value":53.6,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-10-01"},{"value":51,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-11-01"},{"value":52.9,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":56.4,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2026-01-01"},{"value":56.6,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED","note":"Final monthly consumer sentiment index (1966Q1 = 100)","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":53.3,"source_url":"https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers","note":"Final March 2026 index per UMich press release; FRED not yet updated","date":"2026-03-01"},{"value":47.6,"source_url":"https://fortune.com/2026/04/14/michigan-consumer-sentiment-record-low-trump-economy-unfavorable-iran-war/","source_publisher":"University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers","note":"Preliminary April 2026 reading per UMich release on Apr 11; lowest in 74-year survey history","date":"2026-04-01"}]},"special_elections":{"cumulative":[{"date":"2025-06-01","avg_overperformance":3,"n_races":25,"dem_flips":2,"gop_flips":0,"note":"Early 2025 specials. Source: Ballotpedia."},{"date":"2025-09-01","avg_overperformance":4,"n_races":50,"dem_flips":4,"gop_flips":0,"note":"Mid-2025. Source: Ballotpedia."},{"date":"2025-12-01","avg_overperformance":5,"n_races":72,"dem_flips":6,"gop_flips":0,"note":"Year-end 2025. Includes IA flips. Source: Ballotpedia."},{"date":"2026-01-15","avg_overperformance":5.2,"n_races":78,"dem_flips":7,"gop_flips":0,"note":"Includes IA SD-35 flip. Source: Ballotpedia."},{"date":"2026-03-01","avg_overperformance":5.4,"n_races":88,"dem_flips":8,"gop_flips":0,"note":"Pre-Mar 17 specials. Source: Ballotpedia."},{"date":"2026-03-15","avg_overperformance":5.6,"n_races":96,"dem_flips":9,"gop_flips":0,"source":"Ballotpedia"}],"notable_results":[{"date":"2025-04-01","state":"FL","district":"CD-06 (special)","dem_pct":46.3,"rep_pct":53.7,"trump_margin":19,"overperformance":11.5,"note":"R hold; significant swing from Trump +19"},{"date":"2025-11-04","state":"NJ","district":"Governor","dem_pct":57.2,"rep_pct":42.8,"trump_margin":-5.9,"overperformance":8.5,"note":"Sherrill (D) +14.4"},{"date":"2025-12-01","state":"IA","district":"SD-01 (special)","dem_pct":55.3,"rep_pct":44.7,"trump_margin":10,"overperformance":20.5,"note":"D flip in Trump +10 district"},{"date":"2026-01-15","state":"IA","district":"SD-35 (special)","dem_pct":52,"rep_pct":48,"trump_margin":21,"overperformance":25,"note":"D flip in Trump +21 district"},{"value":21,"source_url":"https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2026","source_publisher":"Ballotpedia","note":"Iowa Senate District 35 flipped from GOP to Dem (Zimmer), a district Trump carried by 21 points in 2024","date":"2026-01-28"},{"date":"2026-02-15","state":"TX","district":"SD (special)","dem_pct":null,"rep_pct":null,"trump_margin":13,"overperformance":null,"note":"D win; exact margin TBD"},{"date":"2026-02-25","state":"PA","district":"HD-22 + HD-42","dem_pct":null,"rep_pct":null,"trump_margin":null,"overperformance":null,"note":"Dems hold 102-98 PA House majority"},{"date":"2026-03-03","state":"AR","district":"HD-70","dem_pct":null,"rep_pct":null,"trump_margin":-2,"overperformance":10,"note":"Holladay (D) flips; wins by double digits"},{"date":"2026-03-17","state":"VA","district":"HD-98 (Virginia Beach)","dem_pct":38,"rep_pct":62,"trump_margin":14,"overperformance":9,"note":"R hold (Rice R, Smith D). Safe R seat; +9 vs Knight 2025 baseline."},{"date":"2026-03-24","state":"Florida","district":"HD-51 (Polk County)","trump_margin":"Trump +13 (2024)","result":"Holley (R) 54%, Perez (D) 46%","result_margin":"R+8","dem_overperformance":"+5 vs Trump margin","note":"R hold in deep-red district; Dem overperformance ~5 pts"},{"value":1,"source_url":"https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_state_legislative_special_elections,_2026","source_publisher":"Ballotpedia","note":"Pennsylvania Senate District 36 flipped from Republican to Democratic control (James Malone)","date":"2026-03-25"},{"value":20,"source_url":"https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/another-big-night-for-democrats-tuesdays-wisconsin-and-georgia-results/","source_publisher":"Sabato's Crystal Ball","note":"Wisconsin Supreme Court: Chris Taylor (D-aligned) beat Maria Lazar 60-40, expanding liberal majority to 5-2","date":"2026-04-01"},{"value":25,"source_url":"https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/democrats-overperformance-georgia-wisconsin-election-tuesday","source_publisher":"CNN","note":"Georgia-14 special runoff: Fuller (R) beat Harris (D) by 11.8 points in a Trump+37 district, Dem outperformed 2024 presidential by 25 points","date":"2026-04-07"}]},"treasury_yields":{"ten_year":[{"date":"2026-02-28","value":4.15,"note":"Pre-war; markets pricing rate cuts"},{"value":4.05,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-02"},{"value":4.06,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-03"},{"value":4.09,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-04"},{"value":4.13,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-05"},{"value":4.15,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-06"},{"date":"2026-03-07","value":4.22,"note":"First week of war"},{"value":4.12,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-09"},{"value":4.15,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-10"},{"value":4.21,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-11"},{"value":4.27,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-12"},{"value":4.28,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-13"},{"date":"2026-03-14","value":4.28,"note":"Oil back above $100"},{"value":4.23,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-16"},{"value":4.2,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-17"},{"value":4.26,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-18"},{"value":4.25,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-19"},{"value":4.39,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-20"},{"date":"2026-03-21","value":4.35,"note":"Rate cut expectations evaporating"},{"value":4.34,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-23"},{"value":4.39,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-24"},{"value":4.33,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-25"},{"value":4.42,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-26"},{"value":4.44,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-27"},{"date":"2026-03-28","value":4.44,"note":"8-month high. Intraday hit 4.48%. 30-year briefly touched 5%. Futures pricing >52% probability of rate hike."},{"value":4.35,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-30"},{"value":4.3,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-31"},{"value":4.33,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-01"},{"value":4.31,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":4.35,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-03"},{"value":4.34,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-06"},{"value":4.33,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":4.29,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":4.29,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-09"},{"value":4.31,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":4.3,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-13"},{"value":4.26,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-14"},{"value":4.29,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-15"},{"value":4.32,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-16"}],"two_ten_spread":[{"date":"2026-02-28","value":0.15,"note":"Positive; no inversion signal"},{"date":"2026-03-07","value":0.12,"note":"Narrowing"},{"date":"2026-03-14","value":0.08,"note":"Flattening"},{"date":"2026-03-21","value":0.05,"note":"Near-flat"},{"date":"2026-03-28","value":0.03,"note":"Approaching inversion. Short end rising on hike expectations, long end on inflation."}],"two_year":[{"value":3.47,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-02"},{"value":3.51,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-03"},{"value":3.54,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-04"},{"value":3.57,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-05"},{"value":3.56,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-06"},{"value":3.56,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-09"},{"value":3.57,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-10"},{"value":3.64,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-11"},{"value":3.76,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-12"},{"value":3.73,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-13"},{"value":3.68,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-16"},{"value":3.68,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-17"},{"value":3.76,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-18"},{"value":3.79,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-19"},{"value":3.88,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-20"},{"value":3.83,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-23"},{"value":3.9,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-24"},{"value":3.84,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-25"},{"value":3.96,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-26"},{"value":3.88,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-27"},{"value":3.82,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-30"},{"value":3.79,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-03-31"},{"value":3.81,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-01"},{"value":3.79,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-02"},{"value":3.84,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-03"},{"value":3.84,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-06"},{"value":3.81,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":3.79,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":3.78,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-09"},{"value":3.81,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":3.78,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-13"},{"value":3.76,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-14"},{"value":3.76,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-15"},{"value":3.78,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","source_publisher":"US Treasury via FRED","note":"2-year Treasury constant maturity yield, percent","date":"2026-04-16"}]},"trump_approval":{"individual_polls":[{"date":"2026-01-04","pollster":"Morning Consult","approve":null,"disapprove":null,"net":-5,"tier":2},{"date":"2026-01-05","pollster":"Reuters/Ipsos","approve":null,"disapprove":null,"net":-14,"tier":2},{"date":"2026-01-07","pollster":"Rasmussen","approve":null,"disapprove":null,"net":-8,"tier":3},{"date":"2026-01-30","pollster":"Pew Research","approve":37,"disapprove":null,"net":null,"tier":1,"note":"Down from ~40% in fall 2025"},{"date":"2026-02-08","pollster":"AP-NORC","approve":36,"disapprove":62,"net":-26,"tier":1,"note":"Matched Nov 2025 low with same pollster"},{"date":"2026-02-22","pollster":"Harvard-Harris","approve":50,"disapprove":47,"net":3,"tier":3,"screen":"LV","note":"FLAG: T3, documented R-lean"},{"date":"2026-02-25","pollster":"CNN/SSRS","approve":null,"disapprove":null,"net":null,"tier":2,"note":"Independents 26% approve (down from 41% in Feb 2025)"},{"date":"2026-03-01","pollster":"Economist/YouGov","approve":38,"disapprove":59,"net":-21,"tier":2},{"date":"2026-03-03","pollster":"NPR/Marist","approve":38,"disapprove":57,"net":-19,"tier":1},{"date":"2026-03-07","pollster":"Morning Consult","approve":null,"disapprove":null,"net":-9,"tier":2,"note":"9 pts more likely to disapprove than approve; near record low. National security only issue with net-positive marks. No rally effect from Iran."},{"date":"2026-03-08","pollster":"NBC/Hart","approve":44,"disapprove":54,"net":-10,"tier":2},{"date":"2026-03-11","pollster":"CNN Poll of Polls","approve":39,"disapprove":59,"net":-20,"tier":null,"note":"Aggregator (NPR/Marist, Marquette, Pew, Reuters/Ipsos)"},{"date":"2026-03-16","pollster":"Echelon Insights","approve":41,"disapprove":57,"net":-16,"tier":2,"note":"A-rated, Mar 12-16, n=1033 RV. Down 3 from prior. FP approval -21 (from -13). Economy -21. Immigration -12."},{"date":"2026-03-17","pollster":"Emerson College","approve":42,"disapprove":51,"net":-9,"tier":1,"note":"T1 LV, Mar 16-17, n=1000. Foreign policy 49% poor. America First reversed: 53% say no (net -11, was net +7 Mar 2025). Economy top issue 34%."},{"date":"2026-03-18","pollster":"Marquette Law School","approve":42,"disapprove":56,"net":-14,"tier":1,"note":"WI RV, 850 respondents. Worst net either term in Marquette polling. Independents 26% approve."},{"date":"2026-03-19","pollster":"Civiqs (cumulative)","approve":39,"disapprove":57,"net":-18,"tier":3,"note":"Cumulative Jan 20 2025-Mar 19 2026, 92,593 RV. Underwater in every swing state."},{"date":"2026-03-20","pollster":"Daily Mail/JL Partners","approve":42,"disapprove":null,"net":null,"tier":3,"note":"Mar 18-20, 1037 RV. Series low. Down from 48% late Jan. 44% cite inflation (up from 38%), 28% cite Iran (up from 20%). 54% blame Trump for gas."},{"date":"2026-03-22","pollster":"Pew Research","approve":37,"disapprove":61,"net":-24,"tier":1,"note":"Mar 16-22, 3,524 adults, MOE 1.8. 61% disapprove of Iran handling. Among R-leaning independents: 52%/45% split."},{"date":"2026-03-23","pollster":"Quinnipiac","approve":38,"disapprove":56,"net":-18,"tier":2,"note":"Mar 19-23, 1,191 RV. Economy 38%/58% (matches all-time worst). Foreign policy 36%/59%."},{"date":"2026-03-24","pollster":"Economist/YouGov","approve":38,"disapprove":56,"net":-18,"tier":2,"note":"Mar 20-23, 1,665 adults; GOP approval 82% (down from 84% last week, 88% Mar 6-9)"},{"date":"2026-03-25","pollster":"UMass Amherst","approve":33,"disapprove":62,"net":-29,"tier":2,"note":"1,000 respondents, MOE 3.5. Lowest single-poll approval this term. Strong disapproval 53%."},{"date":"2026-03-26","pollster":"HarrisX/Harris Poll","approve":43,"disapprove":53,"net":-10,"tier":2,"note":"2,009 RV, MOE 1.99. New second-term low for this pollster."},{"value":-16,"note":"RealClearPolling average as of run date. Track B authoritative.","date":"2026-04-06"}],"silver_bulletin_net":[{"date":"2017-01-20","value":0,"note":"1st term inauguration. Approx even. Source: Silver Bulletin/538."},{"date":"2017-06-01","value":-10,"note":"1st term 6-month mark. Source: 538 avg."},{"date":"2018-01-01","value":-13,"note":"1st term Year 1 end. Source: 538 avg."},{"date":"2018-11-06","value":-10,"note":"2018 midterms. Dems won House +40 seats, D+8.6 popular vote. Source: 538."},{"date":"2019-01-01","value":-12,"note":"1st term Year 2. Source: 538 avg."},{"date":"2020-01-01","value":-9,"note":"Pre-COVID. Source: 538 avg."},{"date":"2020-06-01","value":-12,"note":"COVID + George Floyd. Source: 538 avg."},{"date":"2020-11-03","value":-9,"note":"Election Day. Lost by 4.5 pts. Source: 538 avg."},{"date":"2021-01-06","value":-15,"note":"Capitol riot. 538 final reading. Source: 538."},{"date":"2025-01-20","value":-2,"note":"Inauguration Day (2nd term). Honeymoon high. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-02-01","value":-2.5,"note":"Early Feb 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-03-01","value":-5,"note":"Mar 2025; tariff announcements beginning. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":-8,"note":"Apr 2025; Liberation Day tariffs impact. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-05-01","value":-9,"note":"May 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-06-01","value":-9.5,"note":"Jun 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":-10,"note":"Jul 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-08-01","value":-10.5,"note":"Aug 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-09-01","value":-11,"note":"Sep 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":-11.5,"note":"Oct 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-11-01","value":-12,"note":"Nov 2025; steady erosion. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-12-01","value":-12.5,"note":"Dec 2025. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2025-12-15","value":-13,"note":"Mid-Dec; level that held through Jan. Source: Silver Bulletin."},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":-13,"note":"Hovering around -13 since mid-December per Silver Bulletin"},{"date":"2026-01-31","value":-13,"note":"Ballotpedia: 42% approve, 55% disapprove at end of Jan"},{"date":"2026-02-09","value":-13.7,"note":"Strong disapproval broke 46% for first time"},{"date":"2026-02-15","value":-15,"note":"Matched 2nd-term low"},{"date":"2026-02-25","value":-14.9,"note":"0.1 above 2nd-term low; strong approve dropped from 34% to 24%"},{"date":"2026-03-01","value":-13.5},{"date":"2026-03-04","value":-13.5},{"date":"2026-03-10","value":-13},{"date":"2026-03-14","value":-13.9,"note":"Stable; no rally effect from Iran war"},{"date":"2026-03-16","value":-13.9,"note":"Unchanged; no rally, no further erosion. DDHQ avg 43.1/54.4."},{"value":-15.3,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Mid-March trough reference cited across Silver Bulletin commentary","date":"2026-03-19"},{"date":"2026-03-25","value":-15.3,"note":"New second-term model low confirmed. SB: not a huge departure from -15.0 but about 3 pts worse than first term at this point."},{"date":"2026-03-26","value":-16.7,"note":"New second-term low per Newsweek/SB. Down 1.4 pts from -15.3. SB also launched dedicated Iran War polling avg (support ~40%, opposition ~52%)."},{"value":-17.4,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-rating-30s-popularity-decline","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Approve 39.7 minus disapprove 57.1; first sub-40 approve reading of second term","date":"2026-03-30"},{"value":-15.9,"note":"RealClearPolling Track B, dated 2026-04-07. Corrected from +39.7 to net -15.9.","date":"2026-03-31"},{"value":-17.6,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Approaching trough before the ceasefire; net approval recovered 1.3 points by April 7","date":"2026-04-04"},{"value":-16.3,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Value on day of two-week ceasefire announcement with Iran","date":"2026-04-07"},{"value":-14.9,"note":"RealClearPolitics Trump Net Approval as of April 8, 2026.","date":"2026-04-08"},{"value":-15.1,"note":"RealClearPolling Trump Approval Average","date":"2026-04-10"},{"value":-15.1,"note":"RealClearPolling Trump Approval Average. Net approval -15.1.","date":"2026-04-13"},{"value":-15.2,"note":"RealClearPolitics Trump approval average. Net approval -15.2.","date":"2026-04-14"},{"value":-16.6,"source_url":"https://www.iheart.com/content/2026-04-17-trumps-latest-approval-rating-revealed-by-polling-expert/","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Via iHeart reporting Silver Bulletin tracker value","date":"2026-04-17"},{"value":-16.6,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Second-term low holding; net approval -16.6 on Day 51 of the Iran war","date":"2026-04-19"}]},"trump_economy_approval":[{"value":-34,"source_url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin","source_publisher":"Silver Bulletin","note":"Net approval on inflation at -34 per the same Silver Bulletin April 19 commentary","date":"2026-04-19"}],"unemployment":{"u3":[{"value":4.2,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":4.3,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-05-01"},{"value":4.1,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-06-01"},{"value":4.3,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":4.3,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-08-01"},{"value":4.4,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-09-01"},{"value":4.5,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-11-01"},{"value":4.4,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":4.3,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2026-01-01"},{"value":4.4,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":4.3,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Official civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted; March 2026 value from Apr 3 release","date":"2026-03-01"}],"u6":[{"value":7.8,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-04-01"},{"value":7.8,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-05-01"},{"value":7.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-06-01"},{"value":7.9,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-07-01"},{"value":8.1,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-08-01"},{"value":8.1,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-09-01"},{"value":8.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-11-01"},{"value":8.4,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2025-12-01"},{"value":8.1,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2026-01-01"},{"value":7.9,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2026-02-01"},{"value":8,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE","source_publisher":"BLS Employment Situation via FRED","note":"Total unemployed plus marginally attached plus part-time for economic reasons, as share of civilian labor force plus marginally attached, SA","date":"2026-03-01"}]},"wealth_inequality":{"bottom50_wealth_share":{"data":[{"value":3.4,"note":"Fed DFA series start. Source: [136]","date":"1989 Q3"},{"value":3.2,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"1995"},{"value":3.1,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2000"},{"value":2.9,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2004"},{"value":2.8,"note":"Fed DFA. Housing bubble gave bottom 50% temporarily elevated real estate values.","date":"2006"},{"value":2.4,"note":"Fed DFA. Financial crisis; real estate collapse devastated bottom 50% (half their assets are real estate).","date":"2008 Q4"},{"value":1.8,"note":"Fed DFA. Post-crisis trough. Bottom 50% wealth: $360B (down from $2.44T in 2005). Source: [136]","date":"2010"},{"value":1.9,"note":"Fed DFA. Recovery still below pre-crisis level.","date":"2014"},{"value":2,"note":"Fed DFA. Returned to ~2005 levels in nominal terms by 2014-2015. Source: [136]","date":"2016"},{"value":2.2,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2019 Q4"},{"value":2.4,"note":"Fed DFA. COVID stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment temporarily boosted bottom 50%.","date":"2020 Q2"},{"value":2.7,"note":"Fed DFA. Stimulus-era high for bottom 50%.","date":"2021 Q4"},{"value":2.6,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2022 Q4"},{"value":2.6,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2023 Q4"},{"value":2.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Source: [2][136]","date":"2024 Q1"},{"value":2.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Source: [137]","date":"2024 Q4"}]},"top10_wealth_share":{"data":[{"value":72,"note":"Historical estimate. First Gilded Age early period.","date":"1870 (est.)"},{"value":75,"note":"Historical estimate. Source: [141]","date":"1890 (est.)"},{"value":85,"note":"Historical estimate; 'richest 10% controlled perhaps 90%.' Source: [141]","date":"1900 (est.)"},{"value":55,"note":"Postwar low. WID estimate.","date":"1955 (est.)"},{"value":52,"note":"Historical trough. WID estimate.","date":"1975 (est.)"},{"value":60.5,"note":"Fed DFA series start.","date":"1989 Q3"},{"value":62,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"1995"},{"value":65.1,"note":"Fed DFA. Dot-com peak.","date":"2000"},{"value":66.8,"note":"Fed DFA. Pre-crisis high.","date":"2007"},{"value":65,"note":"Fed DFA. Crisis compression.","date":"2010"},{"value":65.8,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2016"},{"value":66.2,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2019"},{"value":66.5,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2022"},{"value":67.2,"note":"Fed DFA. Source: [137]","date":"2024 Q4"}]},"top1_wealth_share":{"data":[{"value":27,"note":"Historical estimate; First Gilded Age early period. Census property records. Source: WID/historian consensus.","date":"1870 (est.)"},{"value":28.5,"note":"Historical estimate; First Gilded Age peak. Top 1% owned ~25-30% per multiple historians. Source: [141]","date":"1890 (est.)"},{"value":29,"note":"Historical estimate; top 10% controlled ~70-90% of wealth. Source: [141]","date":"1900 (est.)"},{"value":27,"note":"Pre-income-tax era; estimate from Saez-Zucman income capitalization method begins ~1913.","date":"1913 (est.)"},{"value":31,"note":"Pre-Depression peak. Saez-Zucman estimate. Income share of top 1% near modern highs.","date":"1928"},{"value":28,"note":"Depression/New Deal period; compression beginning.","date":"1935"},{"value":23,"note":"WWII compression; top marginal rate 94%. WID estimate.","date":"1945"},{"value":22,"note":"Postwar low-inequality era. Union density ~35%. Top marginal rate 91%.","date":"1955"},{"value":21,"note":"JFK era; near postwar trough.","date":"1962"},{"value":20.5,"note":"Near historical low. WID estimate.","date":"1970"},{"value":20,"note":"Historical low point; most equitable distribution of modern era. WID estimate.","date":"1975"},{"value":21.5,"note":"Reagan era begins; deregulation, top rate cut from 70% to 50% (1981). WID.","date":"1980"},{"value":23,"note":"Federal Reserve DFA series begins. Earliest quarterly data point.","date":"1989 Q3"},{"value":24.2,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"1992"},{"value":25.8,"note":"Fed DFA. Stock market expansion beginning.","date":"1995"},{"value":28,"note":"Fed DFA. Dot-com boom wealth gains concentrated at top.","date":"1998"},{"value":30.1,"note":"Fed DFA. Dot-com peak; top 1% share near modern high.","date":"2000"},{"value":28.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Post-dot-com correction.","date":"2002"},{"value":29.3,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2004"},{"value":30.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Housing bubble inflating.","date":"2006"},{"value":31,"note":"Fed DFA. Pre-financial crisis peak.","date":"2007 Q3"},{"value":27.8,"note":"Fed DFA. Financial crisis trough.","date":"2009 Q1"},{"value":28.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Recovery begins; stock market rebound benefits top holders disproportionately.","date":"2010"},{"value":29.4,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2012"},{"value":30.1,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2014"},{"value":29.8,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2016"},{"value":30.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017) effect beginning to show.","date":"2018"},{"value":30.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Pre-pandemic.","date":"2019 Q4"},{"value":29.8,"note":"Fed DFA. COVID shock briefly compressed; CARES Act transfers.","date":"2020 Q2"},{"value":30.8,"note":"Fed DFA. Stock market recovery. Billionaire share of wealth rose 70% during COVID per Wikipedia cite [2].","date":"2020 Q4"},{"value":31.2,"note":"Fed DFA. Post-stimulus stock surge.","date":"2021 Q2"},{"value":30.1,"note":"Fed DFA. Rate hike cycle; equities down.","date":"2022 Q2"},{"value":30.8,"note":"Fed DFA.","date":"2023 Q4"},{"value":30.5,"note":"Fed DFA. Source: [135][2]","date":"2024 Q1"},{"value":31,"note":"Fed DFA. Source: [2] Wikipedia citing DFA.","date":"2025 Q2"},{"value":31.7,"note":"Fed DFA. RECORD HIGH in series history (1989-present). Source: [135]","date":"2025 Q3"}]}},"wrong_direction":{"polls":[{"date":"2022-06-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":79,"tier":null,"note":"Near-record. Inflation peak. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2023-01-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":71,"tier":null,"note":"Source: RCP."},{"date":"2023-06-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":62,"tier":null,"note":"Improving. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2024-01-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":63,"tier":null,"note":"Source: RCP."},{"date":"2024-06-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":62,"tier":null,"note":"Source: RCP."},{"date":"2024-11-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":58,"tier":null,"note":"Pre-election. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2025-01-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":55,"tier":null,"note":"Pre-inauguration baseline. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2025-04-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":58,"tier":null,"note":"Post-tariffs. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2025-07-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":57,"tier":null,"note":"Mid-2025. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2025-10-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":59,"tier":null,"note":"Fall 2025. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2026-01-01","pollster":"RCP avg","wrong_direction":60,"tier":null,"note":"New year baseline. Source: RCP."},{"date":"2026-03-03","pollster":"NPR/Marist","wrong_direction":61,"tier":1},{"date":"2026-03-24","pollster":"NPR/PBS/Marist","wrong_direction":61,"tier":1}]},"scenario_probabilities":{"description":"Five scenario probability ranges, recorded at each document update where probabilities were assessed or changed. Scenarios defined in Part III of the main document.","dates":["2026-03-04","2026-03-05","2026-03-09","2026-03-12","2026-03-14","2026-03-31"],"scenarios":{"A":{"label":"Landslide (D+8 or higher)","senate_result":"54-55 D","color":"#2563eb","ranges":[[10,15],[12,17],[12,17],[15,20],[15,20],[18,23]],"notes":["Baseline at document creation","Raised: Feb jobs report (-92K), Trump approval trajectory","Held at 12-17","Raised: 4 of 6 accelerants active (Iran war + gas $3.58 + Trump 36% CNN/SSRS + DHS shutdown); Quinnipiac economy disapproval 58% record; all named accelerants now active","Held at 15-20; stagflation data (GDP 0.7%, Goldman recession 25%) reinforces but no new trigger","Mar 31: Goldman 30%, UMich 53.3, Dow correction, Houthis, oil +55% record. Generic ballot stable but structural conditions accumulating."]},"B":{"label":"Populist Wave (without landslide)","senate_result":"52-53 D","color":"#16a34a","ranges":[[15,20],[15,20],[15,20],[15,20],[15,20],[15,20]],"notes":["Baseline","No change","No change","No change","No change","Mar 31: Held. No primary results yet to differentiate A/B allocation."]},"C":{"label":"Mixed Result","senate_result":"51-49 D","color":"#eab308","ranges":[[25,30],[25,30],[25,30],[25,30],[25,30],[25,30]],"notes":["Baseline","No change","No change","No change","No change","Mar 31: Held. Remains most likely single outcome."]},"D":{"label":"Establishment Hold","senate_result":"51-49 D (est. dominated)","color":"#f97316","ranges":[[15,20],[15,20],[15,20],[12,17],[12,17],[10,15]],"notes":["Baseline","No change","No change","Lowered: hostile GOP environment makes D-wave more likely than D-hold; establishment argument weakened","Held at 12-17","Mar 31: Narrowed. Compound accelerant effect makes establishment path harder."]},"E":{"label":"Failed Flip","senate_result":"50-50 or worse","color":"#dc2626","ranges":[[20,25],[20,25],[20,25],[18,23],[18,23],[15,20]],"notes":["Baseline","No change","No change","Lowered: war + gas price shock make favorable D environment stickier","Held at 18-23","Mar 31: Narrowed. Recession probability 30-49%, sentiment 2nd pctile, gas near $4."]}},"sources":["Analyst estimates based on methodology described in document"]},"opposition_funding":{"description":"Super PAC and major outside spending group war chests for the 2026 cycle. Sources: FEC H2 2025 filings, NBC News, Axios, Sludge, American Prospect.","last_updated":"2026-03-18","filing_period":"End of 2025 (H2 2025 FEC filings, released Feb 2026)","groups":{"MAGA_Inc":{"type":"Republican/Trump super PAC","cash_on_hand_eoy2025":304000000},"Fairshake":{"type":"Crypto industry (bipartisan)","cash_on_hand_eoy2025":193000000,"new_2026_cycle":129000000,"carryover_2024":64000000,"affiliates":["Protect Progress (D)","Defend American Jobs (R)"],"2024_record":"Won 47 of 48 races. Spent $290M combined.","2026_il_primary":"Lost 2 of 3 IL races Mar 17. Spent ~$10M opposing Stratton (lost), ~$2.5M opposing Ford (lost)."},"Senate_Leadership_Fund":{"type":"Republican Senate (Thune)","cash_on_hand_eoy2025":100000000,"raised_2025":103000000,"spending":"Pledged $42M for Collins (ME). $8M+ in TX-R primary.","dark_money":"One Nation ($24M+ spent so far)"},"United_Democracy_Project":{"type":"Pro-Israel/AIPAC (plays in D primaries)","cash_on_hand_eoy2025":96000000,"raised_h2_2025":61000000,"2026_il_primary":"Went 2-for-4 in Chicago House races. $21M+ across 5 IL races.","top_donors":"AIPAC ($30M), Paul Singer (GOP megadonor)"},"Leading_the_Future":{"type":"Pro-AI industry (bipartisan)","commitments":125000000,"cash_on_hand":50000000,"dem_affiliate":"Think Big","backed_by":"Andreessen Horowitz, Brockman (OpenAI)","note":"New 2026 entrant. Strategy modeled on Fairshake 2024."},"Congressional_Leadership_Fund":{"type":"Republican House (Johnson)","cash_on_hand_eoy2025":54500000,"raised_h2_2025":38000000,"note":"Received $5M from Musk Dec 2025"},"Senate_Majority_PAC":{"type":"Democratic Senate (Schumer)","raised_2025":59000000,"note":"Significantly outraised by SLF ($59M vs $103M)"},"House_Majority_PAC":{"type":"Democratic House","cash_on_hand_eoy2025":46000000,"raised_2025":69000000},"American_Priorities":{"type":"Progressive counter-AIPAC (new 2026)","commitment":10000000,"note":"Launched Feb 2026. Led by ex-Sanders/Justice Democrats staff. Plans 10+ races."},"Pine_Tree_Results":{"type":"Anti-Collins (ME-specific)","raised":10000000},"America_PAC":{"type":"Musk personal PAC","contributed_2025":48000000,"note":"Spent $250M+ in 2024. Musk also gave $10M to KY Senate."}},"party_committees_2025":{"republican_total":378000000,"democratic_total":341000000,"rnc":172000000,"dnc":146000000,"dnc_debt":17500000,"dscc":80000000,"note":"GOP outraised Dems $378M to $341M. Bulk of gap at national committee level."},"as_of":"2025-12-31","illinois_primary_mar17":{"total_outside_spending":50000000,"fairshake":{"races":3,"wins":1,"losses":2,"spent":13300000},"aipac_udp":{"races":4,"wins":2,"losses":2,"spent":21000000},"leading_the_future":{"races":2,"wins":1,"losses":1,"spent":2400000},"takeaway":"Mixed results. Fairshake first 2026 losses after 47-for-48 in 2024. AIPAC 2-for-4."},"sources":["https://www.fec.gov/","https://www.opensecrets.org/"]},"retirements":{"description":"Open seats created by retirement or resignation, with party, date announced, and successor status.","sources":["https://ballotpedia.org/","Associated Press"],"data":[{"state":"Iowa","seat":"Senate","party":"R","incumbent":"Joni Ernst","date_announced":"2025-09-01","successor_status":"Hinson (R) frontrunner; Wahls vs. Turek (D primary Jun 2)","note":"Ernst 'we all are going to die' Medicare comment preceded decision"},{"state":"Montana","seat":"Senate","party":"R","incumbent":"Steve Daines","date_announced":"2026-03-04","successor_status":"Alme (R, Trump-endorsed); Bodnar (I, Tester-backed)","note":"Withdrew minutes before filing deadline; orchestrated succession to Alme"},{"state":"Minnesota","seat":"Senate","party":"D","incumbent":"Tina Smith","date_announced":"2025-01-01","successor_status":"Flanagan vs. Craig (D primary Aug 4)","note":""},{"state":"Michigan","seat":"Senate","party":"D","incumbent":"Gary Peters","date_announced":"2025-01-01","successor_status":"El-Sayed vs. McMorrow vs. Stevens (D primary Aug 4)","note":""},{"state":"New Hampshire","seat":"Senate","party":"D","incumbent":"Jeanne Shaheen","date_announced":"2025-01-01","successor_status":"Pappas (D); Sununu vs. Brown (R)","note":""},{"state":"Kentucky","seat":"Senate","party":"R","incumbent":"Mitch McConnell","date_announced":"2024-02-28","successor_status":"GOP primary field forming","note":"McConnell stepping down; open seat in deep-red state"}]},"coattail_tracking":{"description":"State-level House performance comparison by Senate nominee type. Tests the hypothesis that populist Senate candidates lift House candidates in the same state more than establishment Senate candidates do. Populated after primaries confirm matchups (Jun-Aug 2026).","sources":[],"methodology":"For each state with a competitive Senate race and competitive House races, compare House-level Democratic overperformance (vs. 2024 presidential margin) in states with populist Senate nominees vs. states with establishment Senate nominees. Control cases: states with competitive House races but no Senate race (e.g., WI).","states":{"populist_nominee_states":{"note":"Populated after primaries. Expected: ME (if Platner), OH (Brown), NE (Osborn)"},"establishment_nominee_states":{"note":"Populated after primaries. Expected: NC (Cooper), GA (Ossoff), NH (Pappas)"},"control_states":{"note":"Competitive House races, no Senate race. WI, PA (no competitive Senate 2026)"},"mixed_states":{"note":"Depends on primary outcome. MI, MN, IA"}},"data":[]},"media_coverage":{"description":"Google Trends search volume index for tracked Senate candidates. Weekly snapshots, scale 0-100 relative to peak. Used as proxy for earned media and campaign visibility.","sources":["https://trends.google.com/"],"methodology":"Search term: candidate full name (e.g., 'Graham Platner'). Geography: United States. Time range: Jan 1, 2026 - present. Updated monthly or after major campaign events.","candidates":{"Graham Platner":[],"Janet Mills":[],"Sherrod Brown":[],"Dan Osborn":[],"James Talarico":[],"Zach Wahls":[],"Peggy Flanagan":[],"Abdul El-Sayed":[]},"note":"Stub series. First data collection pending. Google Trends data is relative, not absolute — useful for comparing candidates' trajectory and event-driven spikes, not for absolute reach."}}