A new AP-NORC poll found 59% of Americans say U.S. military action in Iran has been excessive, while 45% express concern about affording gas in coming months — up from 30% after Trump's reelection.

Dashboard moves:

• Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin): D+5.1 (up Narrowed to point estimate D+5.1 from D+5.0 to D+5.6)
• Iran War Approval: 59% say excessive (AP-NORC) (up New AP-NORC framing: excessive action, gas affordability from 35% approve strikes (Reuters/Ipsos))
• Oil (Brent): ~$102/barrel (down Down ~$2.50 on talks from ~$104.49/barrel)
• US Deaths (Iran war): Day 26 (up Casualties unchanged from Day 25)
• DHS Shutdown: Day 40; 480+ TSA quits; 4.5-hr record waits (up 22+ more TSA quits; TSA testimony to Congress from Day 39; 458+ TSA quits)
• Trump Approval (range): AP-NORC ~40% (unchanged from last month) (up AP-NORC adds ~40% data point from Reuters/Ipsos 36% (new second-term low))

Headlines

The AP-NORC poll (Mar 19-23, 1,150 adults) revealed 60% opposition to ground troop deployment, including roughly half of Republicans. Two-thirds prioritize both preventing Iranian nuclear weapons and keeping gas prices down — what AP called a "difficult juxtaposition for the White House to manage."

On Day 26 of the Iran war, Iran rejected the U.S. 15-point ceasefire plan and issued its own 5-point counter-proposal demanding Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's UN ambassador said Israel is not part of U.S.-Iran talks and operations will continue until Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities are eliminated. Combat continued with a missile strike on a Tel Aviv street, 60 Hezbollah attack waves in 24 hours, Lebanon's death toll reaching 1,072, and a drone hitting a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport.

CPAC opened in Grapevine, Texas, with what AP described as "open division on the right" over the Iran war. Steve Bannon warned the conflict could cost the GOP conservative voters in the midterms, while Matt Gaetz said the U.S. has been "too cozy with Israel." Neither Trump nor Vance was announced as speakers.

The DHS shutdown reached Day 40 with TSA losing more than 480 officers. Acting administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told Congress wait times exceeded 4.5 hours at some airports — "the highest wait times in TSA history." TSA employees have worked 87 unpaid days in fiscal 2026 with nearly $1 billion in unpaid payroll. Oil fell 2.2% to around $102 on talks hopes while markets rallied. Gas remained at $3.977 nationally, approaching $4 for the first time since 2022.

Read the full analysis at 2026gildedage.com