Thin Gold

Apr 7: Platner Leads Collins by 4-11 in ME

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Multiple polls released April 2, 2026 show Democratic challengers leading incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. In a Collins vs. Platner matchup: Emerson College shows Platner +7 (48-41), Quantus Insights shows Platner +7 (49-42), Pan Atlantic shows Platner +4 (44-40), and UNH shows Platner +11 (49-38). In a Collins vs. Mills matchup: Emerson shows Mills +3 (46-43), Quantus Insights shows Collins +2 (45-43), Pan Atlantic shows a tie (44-44), and UNH shows Mills +1 (41-40).
A Quantus Insights poll released April 2, 2026 shows former Gov. Roy Cooper leading Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley by 5 points (Cooper 49%, Whatley 44%) in the 2026 NC Senate race.
An Emerson College poll released April 2, 2026 shows Florida AG Ashley Moody leading all tested Democratic opponents in the special election: Moody vs. Vindman: Moody +8 (46-38); Moody vs. Mujica: Moody +7 (45-38); Moody vs. Nixon: Moody +11 (47-36).

senate_maine: Multiple polls released April 2, 2026 show Democratic challengers leading incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. In a Collins vs. Platner matchup: Emerson College shows Platner +7 (48-41), Quantus Insights shows Platner +7 (49-42), Pan Atlantic shows Platner +4 (44-40), and UNH shows Platner +11 (49-38). In a Collins vs. Mills matchup: Emerson shows Mills +3 (46-43), Quantus Insights shows Collins +2 (45-43), Pan Atlantic shows a tie (44-44), and UNH shows Mills +1 (41-40).
senate_north_carolina: A Quantus Insights poll released April 2, 2026 shows former Gov. Roy Cooper leading Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley by 5 points (Cooper 49%, Whatley 44%) in the 2026 NC Senate race.
senate_florida_special: An Emerson College poll released April 2, 2026 shows Florida AG Ashley Moody leading all tested Democratic opponents in the special election: Moody vs. Vindman: Moody +8 (46-38); Moody vs. Mujica: Moody +7 (45-38); Moody vs. Nixon: Moody +11 (47-36).

Sections updated: 01_front_matter, 04_senate_races

Apr 6: Maine polls show Platner leading Collins by 4 to 11 points across four surveys

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Multiple polls from April 2, 2026, show Sara Gideon challenger Chloe Platner leading incumbent Susan Collins by margins of +4 to +11 depending on pollster: Emerson +7, Quantus Insights +7, Pan Atlantic +4, UNH +11. In a Collins vs. Mills general matchup, results are mixed, ranging from Collins +2 to Mills +3 with one tie (Pan Atlantic). In the Democratic primary, Platner leads Mills by wide margins: Emerson +27, Quantus Insights +5, Pan Atlantic +7, UNH +38.
Cooper leads Whatley 49% to 44% (Cooper +5) in a general election matchup.
DOGE.gov reports agencies terminated 312 wasteful contracts over the most recent 7-day reporting window, with a $2.8 billion ceiling value and $470 million in stated savings. Examples cited include a $286,000 DoD contract for a Harvard entrepreneurship course and a $485,000 HHS contract. Cumulative figures referenced include $30 billion total savings as of June 18, 2025, and $215 billion in estimated savings equivalent to $1,335 per taxpayer as of early 2026. No new major DOGE announcements or controversies were identified in the March 30 to April 5, 2026 window.

senate_maine: Multiple polls from April 2, 2026, show Sara Gideon challenger Chloe Platner leading incumbent Susan Collins by margins of +4 to +11 depending on pollster: Emerson +7, Quantus Insights +7, Pan Atlantic +4, UNH +11. In a Collins vs. Mills general matchup, results are mixed, ranging from Collins +2 to Mills +3 with one tie (Pan Atlantic). In the Democratic primary, Platner leads Mills by wide margins: Emerson +27, Quantus Insights +5, Pan Atlantic +7, UNH +38.
senate_north_carolina: Cooper leads Whatley 49% to 44% (Cooper +5) in a general election matchup.
doge: DOGE.gov reports agencies terminated 312 wasteful contracts over the most recent 7-day reporting window, with a $2.8 billion ceiling value and $470 million in stated savings. Examples cited include a $286,000 DoD contract for a Harvard entrepreneurship course and a $485,000 HHS contract. Cumulative figures referenced include $30 billion total savings as of June 18, 2025, and $215 billion in estimated savings equivalent to $1,335 per taxpayer as of early 2026. No new major DOGE announcements or controversies were identified in the March 30 to April 5, 2026 window.

Sections updated: 01_front_matter

Apr 5: 23 state AGs sue to block executive order restricting mail voting

Sun, 05 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Two polls released April 2, 2026. Emerson: Platner (D) 48%, Collins (R) 41% (Platner +7); Mills (D) 46%, Collins (R) 43% (Mills +3). Quantus Insights: Platner (D) 49%, Collins (R) 42% (Platner +7); Mills (D) 43%, Collins (R) 45% (Collins +2). Sample sizes not reported for either poll. Both polls date April 2, 2026.
Emerson poll released April 2, 2026: Ossoff (D) 49%, Dooley (R) 41% (Ossoff +8). Sample size not reported. Inside Elections rates the seat Toss-up as of July 24, 2025, with no change noted since.
No major new DOGE announcements in the past seven days (March 30 to April 5, 2026). The most recently cited activity involves two separate contract termination batches: 312 contracts terminated in a prior seven-day window (ceiling value $2.8 billion, savings $470 million, spanning DoD and other agencies); and 141 contracts terminated in a separate batch (valued at $5.1 billion, savings $498 million). Both batches cited from doge.gov accessed 2026-04-05 but described as prior-period activity. A Fortune article dated April 5, 2026 reports that DOGE's 2025 elimination of 80 personnel from the State Department Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR) has impaired U.S. energy diplomacy analysis capacity amid the ongoing Iran conflict; former officials quoted as warning of inadequate preparation. State Department claims reorganized teams are performing well and are coordinating reserve releases and production increases.
Ongoing U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran as of the run date. Energy disruptions attributed to Iranian responses are ongoing. No escalation or de-escalation events specified in the past seven days. The State Department Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR) lost approximately 80 personnel in 2025 DOGE reductions; former officials warn this has degraded U.S. energy intelligence and diplomacy capacity relevant to the conflict. State Department disputes this assessment. No new casualty figures or engagement details returned in Track A for the current period.
On April 3, 2026, California Attorney General Rob Bonta co-led a coalition of 23 state attorneys general and Pennsylvania's governor in filing suit in U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts challenging Executive Order No. 14399. The order restricts mail voting and voter eligibility to federally pre-authorized lists, threatens state election officials with prosecution, and coerces states through funding cuts. The lawsuit argues the order unconstitutionally usurps states' constitutional authority over elections. No other legislation, court rulings, or DOJ actions in the past 14 days. Background: DOJ has demanded sensitive voter data (driver's license and SSN numbers) from 44 or more states since May 2025; dismissals of related DOJ suits have occurred in California (January 2026), Oregon, and Michigan, but no new actions were reported in the current window.

senate_maine: Two polls released April 2, 2026. Emerson: Platner (D) 48%, Collins (R) 41% (Platner +7); Mills (D) 46%, Collins (R) 43% (Mills +3). Quantus Insights: Platner (D) 49%, Collins (R) 42% (Platner +7); Mills (D) 43%, Collins (R) 45% (Collins +2). Sample sizes not reported for either poll. Both polls date April 2, 2026.
senate_georgia: Emerson poll released April 2, 2026: Ossoff (D) 49%, Dooley (R) 41% (Ossoff +8). Sample size not reported. Inside Elections rates the seat Toss-up as of July 24, 2025, with no change noted since.
doge: No major new DOGE announcements in the past seven days (March 30 to April 5, 2026). The most recently cited activity involves two separate contract termination batches: 312 contracts terminated in a prior seven-day window (ceiling value $2.8 billion, savings $470 million, spanning DoD and other agencies); and 141 contracts terminated in a separate batch (valued at $5.1 billion, savings $498 million). Both batches cited from doge.gov accessed 2026-04-05 but described as prior-period activity. A Fortune article dated April 5, 2026 reports that DOGE's 2025 elimination of 80 personnel from the State Department Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR) has impaired U.S. energy diplomacy analysis capacity amid the ongoing Iran conflict; former officials quoted as warning of inadequate preparation. State Department claims reorganized teams are performing well and are coordinating reserve releases and production increases.
iran_war_status: Ongoing U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran as of the run date. Energy disruptions attributed to Iranian responses are ongoing. No escalation or de-escalation events specified in the past seven days. The State Department Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR) lost approximately 80 personnel in 2025 DOGE reductions; former officials warn this has degraded U.S. energy intelligence and diplomacy capacity relevant to the conflict. State Department disputes this assessment. No new casualty figures or engagement details returned in Track A for the current period.
voting_rights: On April 3, 2026, California Attorney General Rob Bonta co-led a coalition of 23 state attorneys general and Pennsylvania's governor in filing suit in U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts challenging Executive Order No. 14399. The order restricts mail voting and voter eligibility to federally pre-authorized lists, threatens state election officials with prosecution, and coerces states through funding cuts. The lawsuit argues the order unconstitutionally usurps states' constitutional authority over elections. No other legislation, court rulings, or DOJ actions in the past 14 days. Background: DOJ has demanded sensitive voter data (driver's license and SSN numbers) from 44 or more states since May 2025; dismissals of related DOJ suits have occurred in California (January 2026), Oregon, and Michigan, but no new actions were reported in the current window.

Sections updated: 01_front_matter, 04_senate_races, 06_structural_action_state

Apr 2: Iran war

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Trump tells the nation war is "nearing completion," threatens to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages." In his first primetime address on the war, Trump said military objectives would be achieved in two to three weeks but offered no specific exit strategy or endgame. Oil surged; Asian markets fell sharply. Iran denied any ceasefire request.
Hegseth fires Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, midwar. The ouster, effective immediately, brings total senior officers fired to 15+. Hegseth installed his former military aide as acting chief. The same day, Hegseth used his personal X account to end an investigation into an Army crew that flew helicopters by Kid Rock's Nashville home.
Gas officially above $4 for first time since 2022. AAA confirmed the national average reached $4.081 on April 2, up $1.08 in one month. Physical oil (Dated Brent) hit $141.37, the highest since 2008. EIA forecasts Brent above $95 near-term.
DHS shutdown nearing end after 48 days. Senate re-passed bipartisan bill minus ICE/CBP. Johnson and Thune announced a two-track plan. House could pass by voice vote at April 6 pro forma session. Far-right opposition from Perry and others may force delay.
Israeli airstrike hits home of Iran's diplomatic back-channel envoy. Former FM Kharazi, overseeing Pakistan-mediated talks for a Vance meeting, was seriously injured; his wife was killed. Iran called it deliberate sabotage.
US casualties revised upward. Fifteen confirmed deaths. The Intercept reports 520+ wounded, citing Pentagon undercounting. Saudi air base attack wounded at least 15 more troops.
CENTCOM: 12,300+ targets struck, 155+ vessels destroyed. The most comprehensive operational tally yet, released alongside Trump's address.

Iran war

Sections updated: The Forces Shaping 2026, Dashboard, Changelog, Can Economic Populism End the Second Gilded Age?

Apr 1: Iran war

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Trump to address the nation tonight on Iran. In his first primetime address since the war began 33 days ago, Trump will reaffirm his intention to end the war within "two to three weeks." Earlier today, he claimed Iran's president has asked for a ceasefire - Iran denied the claim. Pezeshkian is preparing a letter to the American people. Trump told Reuters he is "absolutely" considering withdrawing the US from NATO after allies declined to join the war. Oil dropped below $100 intraday for the first time since March 23 on exit expectations.
CNN/SSRS poll: Trump's economy approval hits career low of 31%. Two-thirds of Americans say his policies have worsened the economy - the highest of his presidency and higher than any Biden-era reading. Inflation approval dropped to 27% (from 44% a year ago). Three-quarters say the economy is in poor shape. Overall approval holds at 35%, one point off his all-time low. Republican strong approval dropped to 43% from 52% in January.
Gas prices continue climbing past $4. AAA national average hit $4.064/gal on April 1, up from $4.018 yesterday. The $1.08 monthly increase is the largest on record. Seven in 10 Americans say the president lacks a clear gas price plan (CNN/SSRS). Eight states and DC automatically send mail ballots - all would be affected by Trump's new election executive order.
Trump signs executive order to create national voter eligibility lists. The order directs DHS and SSA to build state-by-state lists of verified citizens and instructs USPS to send mail ballots only to approved voters. Eight states that vote entirely by mail would be directly affected. Election law experts called it unconstitutional. Maine's Secretary of State said the state would not "obey in advance." Oregon's Secretary of State called it an "illegal power grab." Trump's first election EO (2025) was largely blocked by courts.
SAVE Act cloture fails, DOJ sues 29 states for voter rolls. The SAVE Act cloture vote failed 53-47 on Mar 26. Senate is in recess until April 13. Trump said he will not sign other legislation until the SAVE Act passes. Separately, DOJ has sued 29 states and DC demanding unredacted voter roll data, with suits in CA, OR, MI, and GA dismissed so far. DOJ confirmed sharing voter data with DHS. The Brennan Center estimated 21 million Americans lack the documents the SAVE Act would require.
DHS shutdown is now the longest in US history. Day 47. Congress left for Easter recess with competing House and Senate bills and no resolution path. Rep. Suozzi is leading a bipartisan push to reopen DHS. Senate returns April 13; House April 14.
Iran war: Escalation continues despite exit talk. Iranian missiles struck an oil tanker off Qatar. Drones hit Kuwait airport fuel depots. An American journalist was kidnapped in Iraq by suspected Iranian-backed militants. Israel struck and killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. IRGC says Hormuz is "fully" under its control. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge vessels for Hormuz passage.

Iran war

Mar 31: Dashboard

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Trump approval falls below 40% for first time in second term. Silver Bulletin average hit 39.7% approve, net -17.4, the steepest decline in weeks. UMass Amherst recorded 33% approve. Nate Silver described "profound problems" including base erosion among men (-20 pts since April 2025) and independents (-13 pts). 36 House Republicans have now announced retirement, a record at this stage.
WSJ: Trump willing to end Iran war without Hormuz reopening. The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday that Trump told aides he would consider ending operations even if the Strait remains closed, as forcing Tehran to reopen it could extend the conflict. Oil fell on the report: Brent dropped from Monday's $112.78 close to the $108-111 range Tuesday. The administration has also weighed ground forces to seize Kharg Island.
Generic ballot jumps to D+5.5. Silver Bulletin average rose from D+5.1 on a wave of polls showing D+8 to D+11 (Quinnipiac, Survey 160, Global Strategy Group, Emerson), though polls from Ipsos, YouGov, and Morning Consult remain in the D+2 to D+4 range.
Cook shifts two more House races toward Democrats. CA-48 (Issa) and CA-13 (Gray) both moved from Toss Up to Lean D on March 27. TX-23 moved from Solid R to Likely R. Two California seats moved from Likely D to Solid D.
DHS shutdown is now the longest in US history. Day 46. TSA back pay has begun arriving under Trump's emergency memorandum, but 510 officers have quit and Congress remains at an impasse with both chambers in Easter recess.

Dashboard: Silver Bulletin generic ballot rose to D+5.5. Trump approval fell to net -17.4 (39.7%), first time below 40%. UMass poll: 33% approve. Cook moved CA-48 and CA-13 to Lean D. US casualties 15 KIA. DHS Day 46. 8 new citations (172-179).
Iran war: Day 32: WSJ reports Trump willing to end war without Hormuz reopening. Oil fell on the report. 36 House GOP retirements, record at this stage.

Sections updated: Can Economic Populism End the Second Gilded Age?, The Forces Shaping 2026, Dashboard, Primary Calendar, PART I, Changelog

Mar 30: Iran war

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Trump threatens to obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure. On Truth Social Monday, Trump warned that if a deal is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the US "will conclude our lovely 'stay' in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)." In a Financial Times interview, he said he wants to "take the oil in Iran" and that US forces may need to remain at Kharg Island for an extended period. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will "retake control" of Hormuz through escorts or a multinational force. The White House described troops arriving in theater as providing "maximum optionality."
Brent crude posts largest monthly gain in contract history. Oil closed at $112.78 per barrel Monday, capping a 55% surge in March that surpassed the previous record of 46% set during the 1990 Gulf War. WTI settled at $102.88 (+3.25%). The national gas average reached $3.990, with AAA and GasBuddy projecting $4 within days. Americans have spent roughly $8 billion more on gasoline in the past month. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at Harvard, said interest rates are "in a good place" and that raising rates would not help with gas prices but could cause economic damage.
DHS shutdown Day 45. TSA officers began receiving back pay Monday under Trump's emergency executive order from Friday, but 2,800+ agents (10.27% nationwide) called out Saturday, with five airports reporting callout rates above 30%. ICE agents remain deployed at airports per border czar Homan. The White House called on Congress to return from Easter recess to pass permanent funding. The shutdown does not cover CISA, FEMA, or Coast Guard employees.
Iran war Day 31. US-Israeli overnight strikes caused a blackout in Tehran targeting power infrastructure (since restored). Israeli strikes continued across Iran including Karaj, Shiraz, Qom, Abadan, and Tabriz. Iran targeted Israel's Haifa military aerospace complex and Ben Gurion airport fuel storage. Lebanon death toll reached 1,247 (up from 1,189 on Day 29), including three Indonesian UN peacekeepers killed since the weekend. Iranian general Zakariaei died from wounds sustained March 28. Kuwait reported 10 soldiers wounded in a missile attack on a military base.

Iran war: Day 31: Trump threatened to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure if Hormuz not reopened. Tehran blackout from overnight strikes. Lebanon 1,247 dead. Kuwait base attack wounded 10 soldiers.
Dashboard: Gas $3.990 AAA (was $3.981). Oil Brent closed $112.78, 55% monthly gain (record). DHS Day 45. Powell: rates 'good place.' Markets: S&P 6,343.72, Dow 45,216.

Sections updated: Changelog, Dashboard

Mar 28: Iran war

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Houthis enter the war. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched ballistic missiles at southern Israel on Saturday, their first attack since the conflict began one month ago. The IDF intercepted both the initial ballistic missile and a follow-up cruise missile, with sirens sounding around Beersheba near Israel's Dimona nuclear research center. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said strikes "will continue until the declared objectives are achieved." The Houthis had stayed on the sidelines despite the first four weeks of fighting, constrained by their uneasy ceasefire with Saudi Arabia. Their entry raises the threat of a second maritime chokepoint: if the Houthis resume attacks on Red Sea shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb strait alongside the existing Hormuz closure, two of the world's critical trade corridors would be shut simultaneously. Analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warned this "could roil energy markets even more."
Iran struck a US air base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 12-15 troops. Iran fired 6 ballistic missiles and 29 drones at Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh on Friday. At least 12-15 US service members were wounded (reports vary), with at least 5 in serious condition. A KC-135 refueling aircraft was hit and caught fire; Iran released Chinese satellite imagery showing burning planes. This is the most significant direct attack on US forces since the war began. More than two dozen US troops have been wounded at the base in attacks over the past week alone. Total US wounded now exceeds 315.
3,500 Marines arrived in the Middle East. US Central Command confirmed the USS Tripoli, carrying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, has arrived in the CENTCOM area of responsibility. MEUs are traditionally used for amphibious operations including raids and ship-to-shore assaults. Speculation is mounting about potential operations at Iran's Kharg Island oil-export facility. The 82nd Airborne is also deploying.
Markets closed at seven-month lows. The Dow fell 793 points (-1.73%) to 45,167 and entered correction territory. The S&P 500 lost 1.67% to 6,369, its fifth straight weekly loss and lowest close in seven months. The Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 20,948, now 13% below its October high. The VIX topped 31. All three indices are below their 200-day moving averages. March is on pace to be the worst month for equities since December 2022.
DHS shutdown Day 43, heading into recess with no resolution. The House passed a 60-day full-DHS continuing resolution 213-203 Friday night, with 3 Democrats crossing over. Speaker Johnson called the Senate's overnight DHS-minus-ICE bill "a joke." Senate Democrats call the House version "dead on arrival." Both chambers are now in two-week recess with no path to resolution visible. Trump signed an executive order directing DHS Secretary Mullin to pay TSA officers; paychecks could arrive as early as Monday. 510 TSA officers have quit since February 14. TSA workers have missed more than $1 billion in pay.
Rubio says war will end "in weeks." Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the US expects to complete its Iran war objectives "in the next couple weeks." This contradicts the continuing escalation, including the Houthi entry, the Prince Sultan base attack, and Israel's announcement that it would "escalate and expand" strikes. The US military says about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal has been destroyed.
Iran agreed to humanitarian corridor through Hormuz. Iran's UN ambassador in Geneva said Tehran accepted a UN request to facilitate humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through the Strait, the first modest diplomatic opening at the chokepoint. Separately, Iran has begun operating a yuan-based "toll booth" system at Hormuz, allowing Chinese, Russian, and allied vessels to transit while collecting fees in yuan.

Iran war: Day 29 (one month): Houthis enter war with ballistic missile strikes on Israel, threatening second maritime chokepoint. Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base (12-15 US wounded, KC-135 destroyed). USS Tripoli with 3,500 Marines arrived.
Dashboard: Markets closed sharply lower: S&P 6,369 (-1.67%), Dow 45,167 in correction, Nasdaq 20,948. Oil closed $112.57 Brent. DHS Day 43: House passed 60-day CR, Senate calls it dead on arrival, both chambers in recess.

Mar 27: Dashboard

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

UMich consumer sentiment collapsed in the final March reading: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was revised sharply downward to 53.3, from the preliminary 55.5 and below the consensus estimate of 54.0. The final reading incorporated survey responses collected through March 24 — capturing two additional weeks of war, gas price increases, and market volatility not fully reflected in the preliminary data. At 53.3, sentiment sits in the 2nd percentile historically, below the level recorded at the start of every recession since the survey began. CNBC's Rick Santelli described it as "close to estimate" but the 2.2-point downward revision from the preliminary is the most significant revision in over a year.
Markets are extending losses into correction territory. The Dow Jones fell approximately 510 points (-1.1%) and entered correction territory — down 10% from its recent high — joining the Nasdaq, which entered correction Thursday. The S&P 500 lost approximately 1% and is on pace for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak since 2022. The S&P is down approximately 6.8% in March, on track for its worst month since December 2022. In a milestone for the stagflation thesis: futures markets now price a greater than 52% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026, the first time that threshold has been breached. Pre-war, markets expected multiple rate cuts.
Iran war Day 28: Israel struck Iran's Arak heavy water nuclear reactor after issuing an evacuation warning. Iranian media said no casualties resulted due to "prior safety measures." This is the second nuclear facility targeted. Iran's counter-proposal to the US 15-point peace plan is expected today via intermediaries. The IRGC turned away three ships from the Strait of Hormuz this morning. Iran's Red Crescent reported approximately 1,900 killed in Iran with 20,000+ injured; Lebanon's death toll reached 1,116. Total regional deaths exceed 3,000. US wounded total updated to 303 (273 returned to duty). Vance reportedly chided Netanyahu in a tense call for overselling regime change.
G7 foreign ministers at Vaux-de-Cernay Abbey called for "the absolute necessity to permanently restore safe and toll-free freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz" and urged "an immediate cessation of attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure." Secretary Rubio criticized NATO for not helping. European allies maintain de-escalation must come first.
DHS shutdown Day 42: The Senate voted by voice vote at 2:20 AM to fund all of DHS except ICE and parts of CBP, after Trump announced he'd sign an executive order directing new DHS Secretary Mullin to pay TSA agents. 510 TSA officers have now quit. TSA workers are missing their second full paycheck. The House fate is uncertain — Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-MI) called the Senate bill "garbage." House Republicans are meeting this afternoon. Democrats got no policy concessions on ICE reform. Republicans plan to fund ICE via reconciliation.
Marquette Law School Poll (T1, Mar 11-18, 850 WI RV): Trump approval at 42%/56% — net -14, the worst in either of his terms in Marquette's polling. Independent approval fell to 26%. ICE disapproval at 56%; 61% say the Pretti shooting was not justified. 59% favor the Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariff authority. In the April 7 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, liberal Chris Taylor leads conservative Maria Lazar 30-22 among likely voters, with 46% undecided. The Wisconsin race is a significant test of enthusiasm and turnout heading into the midterms.

Dashboard: UMich final March revised to 53.3 (from 55.5 prelim). Dow enters correction. Futures >52% rate hike probability. Marquette T1 WI: Trump net -14 (worst either term).
Iran war: Day 28: Arak reactor struck. G7 demands Hormuz. Iran counter-proposal expected. 1,900+ dead in Iran. 303 US wounded. Senate passed DHS minus ICE overnight.

Mar 26: Iran war

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

After markets closed: Trump extended the power plant strike pause by 10 days — to Monday, April 6, 8 PM Eastern — "as per Iranian Government request," claiming "talks are ongoing" and "going very well, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media." This replaces the March 28 deadline. Earlier today, Trump told reporters he doesn't "care about making a deal" and has additional targets "to hit before we leave." The contradiction between his bellicose daytime rhetoric and his evening extension is consistent with a pattern the Silver Bulletin's Nate Silver has described as "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out).
Markets closed sharply lower: S&P 500 fell 1.7% to its lowest level since September, Dow dropped 469 points to 45,960, Nasdaq tumbled 2.3%. Bloomberg described the selloff as driven by hardening geopolitical tensions and energy prices. Brent settled around $108. Energy stocks were the sole gainers. Meta fell 7.9% on child safety rulings and layoffs.
Silver Bulletin net approval moved to -16.7 — down 1.4 points from -15.3, a new second-term low. Newsweek: the war has "unfolded without the domestic political lift presidents often receive at the start of military conflicts." Silver Bulletin launched a dedicated Iran War polling average showing support at ~40% and opposition rising from ~48% at the start to ~52% by late March.
Pew Research Center (Mar 16-22, 3,524 adults, MOE 1.8) found 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran, 59% say striking was the wrong decision, and 45% say the war is not going well. By nearly two-to-one, more say the action will make the US less safe (40%) than safer (22%). Republican-leaning independents are split: 52% approve, 45% disapprove. Fox News (T2, Mar 20-23) recorded 59% disapproval — the highest in either Trump term. Quinnipiac (T2, Mar 19-23) found Iran handling approval fell to 34% (from 38% on Mar 9), with 42% saying the war makes the world less safe.
Emerson College (T1, Mar 21-23, 1,075 LV): Graham Platner leads Janet Mills 55% to 28% in the Maine Democratic Senate primary. In general election matchups, Platner leads Collins 48-41 (+7), while Mills leads Collins 46-43 (+3). Collins is 30 points underwater with independents; Platner is 6 points above water. The electability gap — the populist candidate outperforming the establishment candidate against the same Republican by 4 points — is now confirmed across four independent polls.
The IAEA's Director General Grossi expressed "deep concern" over strikes near Bushehr nuclear power plant, warning of potential "major radiological accident affecting a large area in Iran and beyond." This is the first formal international warning of nuclear safety risk from the conflict.
Gas prices hit $3.981 AAA nationally, up exactly $1.00 in one month. The USPS announced its first-ever 8% fuel surcharge on packages — a consumer cost indicator that reaches every household. Oil rebounded to ~$108 Brent (settlement) after Iran rejected direct talks.
DHS shutdown Day 41: The House passed full-year DHS funding 218-206 (4 Democrats crossed). The Senate procedural vote remained open with no deal. GOP senators are pushing Trump to declare a national emergency to pay TSA. The Easter recess begins Friday; Thune has not ruled out delaying it. Former VP Harris re-emerged: NBC reported she is making planned appearances and has been in touch with Talarico, Stratton, and Colom.

Iran war: Day 27: Trump extended power plant strike pause 10 days to Apr 6 (after markets). IAEA warns Bushehr strikes risk radiological accident. IRGC navy chief killed. Extensive strikes on Isfahan. Gulf states joint condemnation.
Dashboard: Silver Bulletin net approval fell to -16.7 (new second-term low, was -15.3). S&P 500 -1.7% to lowest since Sep. Brent settled ~$108. Gas $3.981 ($1.00 in one month). USPS first-ever 8% fuel surcharge.
Dashboard: Pew (3,524 adults): 61% disapprove Iran handling, 59% say wrong decision. Fox News 59% disapproval (highest both terms). Quinnipiac Iran approval fell to 34%.
Electoral: Emerson T1 ME: Platner 55-28 primary, +7 vs Collins. Electability gap confirmed across 4 pollsters. House passed DHS 218-206. Harris re-emerging with candidate outreach.
Sources: 3 new citations (169-171): Emerson ME, Pew Research Iran, Fox News/Beacon.

Sections updated: Changelog, Dashboard, The Forces Shaping 2026

Mar 25: Document update

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

AP-NORC poll (Mar 19-23, 1,150 adults): 59% of Americans say U.S. military action in Iran has been excessive. Forty-five percent are extremely or very concerned about affording gas in the next few months, up from 30% shortly after Trump won reelection. About 60% oppose deploying ground troops, including roughly half of Republicans. About 4 in 10 adults approve of Trump overall, unchanged from last month. Two-thirds say preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon should be a top priority — but two-thirds also say keeping gas prices down should be a top priority, a juxtaposition AP calls "difficult for the White House to manage."
Iran war Day 26: Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire plan and issued its own 5-point counter-proposal, including a demand for Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's UN ambassador said Israel is not part of US-Iran talks and military operations will continue until Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities are eliminated. Combat continued: a missile struck a Tel Aviv street, Hezbollah fired 60 attack waves in 24 hours, Lebanon's death toll hit 1,072 with ground invasion fears growing, and a drone hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport. Pakistan may host in-person talks; China and France urged dialogue. The 82nd Airborne deployment is underway.
CPAC opened in Grapevine, Texas, with what the AP described as "open division on the right" over the Iran war. Steve Bannon warned the war could cost the GOP conservative voters in the midterms. Matt Gaetz said the US has been "too cozy with Israel." Neither Trump nor Vance was announced as a speaker. NC Senate candidate Michael Whatley is scheduled to speak.
DHS shutdown Day 40: TSA acting administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told the House Homeland Security Committee that the agency has lost more than 480 officers, with wait times exceeding 4.5 hours at some airports — "the highest wait times in TSA history." TSA employees have worked 87 unpaid days in FY2026; nearly $1 billion in payroll has not been paid. Callout rates exceed 40-50% at some airports. A funding deal has stalled: Senate Democrats sent a counterproposal with ICE reforms, but the Senate is expected to fail another cloture vote Thursday.
Oil fell 2.2% to around $102 on talks hopes. Markets rallied: Dow +305 to 46,429, S&P +0.54% to 6,591.90. Gas remained at $3.977 AAA, approaching $4 nationally for the first time since 2022. The EIA weekly figure hit $4.096 for the week of March 23.

Mar 24: Document update

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 25: Iran denied any negotiations with the United States and the IRGC called Trump a "deceitful American president." An Iranian source acknowledged "outreach" through intermediaries. Pakistan offered to host talks, and an Israeli official told NPR planning is underway for Pakistan talks later this week, though separately an Israeli official said a deal "does not appear tangible right now." Fighting continued across the region: Iran fired at least 8 missile barrages at Israel on Tuesday, with impacts in a Tel Aviv residential neighborhood (6 injured). Saudi Arabia intercepted ~20 drones targeting its Eastern Province.
Israel declared it will establish a "security zone" up to the Litani River in southern Lebanon — the first time Israel has formally spelled out its intent to occupy nearly a tenth of Lebanon. Defense Minister Katz said displaced residents "will not return" until Israeli security is guaranteed. Finance Minister Smotrich called for outright annexation. Hezbollah vowed to fight. Lebanon expelled the Iranian ambassador.
Oil rebounded 4% to settle at $104.49 Brent (WTI $92.35) after Monday's 11% crash, as markets concluded Iran's denial of negotiations undermined Trump's de-escalation narrative. Gas hit $3.977 AAA nationally. Michigan became the first battleground state above $4/gallon ($4.01). Iran began charging informal "transit fees" of up to $2M per vessel through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets gave back Monday's rally: S&P 500 -0.37% to 6,556.37, Dow -0.18% to 46,124.06, Nasdaq -0.84%. AI and software stocks hit hardest.
Two major new polls confirm deepening erosion on economic issues. Strength In Numbers/Verasight (Mar 16-18, 1,530 adults): Trump 37%/60%, D+6 generic ballot. Approval on prices/inflation hit net -39, the worst single-issue rating in their poll history. Border security went underwater for the first time. 58% called the Iran war a bad use of taxpayer dollars. Only 10% say things are going well in America. The Argument (Mar 12-17, 1,519 RV): Trump 40%/58% (net -18, their worst-ever result), D+9 generic ballot.
DHS shutdown Day 39: Senate Republicans emerged from a White House meeting with a plan to fund DHS except for ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations branch. Collins said she's "optimistic." Democrats are cautiously positive. This could end the 39-day shutdown before Easter recess. CBS Houston found TSA staffing shortage at 36%, 3-story security lines with no food, water, or AC. Delta suspended its congressional assistance desk. An NTSB crash investigator was stuck in a TSA line for hours.
Florida legislative special elections today: FL SD-14 (Tampa swing seat) is the most competitive. Results pending tonight.

Mar 23: Document update

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "productive conversations" and identifying Witkoff and Kushner as envoys. Iran denied any negotiations. Despite the postponement, Israel launched "unprecedented" strikes on Tehran while Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Iran's Defence Council threatened to mine the entire Gulf.
Oil posted its biggest single-day drop since March 10: Brent settled at $99.94 (-10.92%), the first close below $100 since March 11, after opening above $114. WTI settled at $88.13. Gas hit $3.956 AAA, the 23rd straight daily increase, up $1.02 in one month - a bigger gain than after Katrina or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Markets rallied but pared gains into the close: Dow +1.38% to 46,208, S&P 500 +1.15% to 6,581, Nasdaq +1.38%. All three remain below their 200-day moving averages. Gold fell more than 6%.
Three national polls confirm approval erosion broadening: Emerson T1 LV (42%/51%, D+7 generic, 47% oppose Iran war, "America First" reversed to net -11 from net +7 a year ago), Echelon A-rated (41%/57%, D+5 generic, foreign policy approval collapsed from -13 to -21), JL Partners (42%, series low, 54% would blame Trump for higher gas prices).
Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary 54-45 (Fetterman and Heinrich crossed party lines; Rand Paul the sole Republican no). Creates Oklahoma Senate vacancy; Gov. Stitt appointing energy executive Alan Armstrong. Kevin Hern running for the full term.
DHS shutdown Day 37: 400+ TSA officers have quit. Trump rejected a proposal to fund all DHS except ICE, instead demanding passage of the SAVE America Act. Thune called the demand "not realistic." Polymarket: 65% probability shutdown extends past March 31.
Iran death toll revised upward: Iran Health Ministry now reports 1,500+ killed (up from 1,200 Red Crescent figure). Lebanon 1,039 killed. Iraq 60 killed. West Bank settler violence averaging 10 attacks per day.

Sections updated: SOURCES, PART I, Changelog, Dashboard

Mar 22: Document update

Sun, 22 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran about ending the war. Iran's parliament speaker and foreign ministry denied any negotiations, calling Trump's move an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time.
Oil whipsawed: Brent surged above $114 Monday morning on continued war fears, then crashed more than 7% to ~$104 after Trump's announcement. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $110 for March-April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 record ($147) if Hormuz remains shut.
Markets surged on de-escalation hopes: S&P 500 up ~2.2%, Dow up ~2.3%, Russell 2000 up ~3%. Asian markets had their worst day in nearly a year overnight before the rally.
Gas hit $3.96 AAA (Mar 23), the 23rd straight daily increase, highest since August 2022. Up 36% from pre-war $2.92.
IEA head Fatih Birol: the crisis is "worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined" and represents a "major, major threat" to the global economy. More than 40 Middle East energy assets "severely damaged."
Despite the talks claim, "unprecedented" Israeli strikes on Tehran continued. Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Dimona casualty toll rose to 180+. Iran's 337th attack wave on Israel. UAE: 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,789 UAVs intercepted since war began.
DHS shutdown Day 37: ICE agents deployed to 14 airports Monday. Record 11.5% single-day callout rate Saturday. 366 TSA officers quit. Hours-long lines at JFK, O'Hare, Atlanta, Philadelphia.

Mar 21: Full candidate research sweep

Sat, 21 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran about ending the war. Iran's parliament speaker and foreign ministry denied any negotiations, calling Trump's move an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time.
Oil whipsawed: Brent surged above $114 Monday morning on continued war fears, then crashed more than 7% to ~$104 after Trump's announcement. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $110 for March-April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 record ($147) if Hormuz remains shut.
Markets surged on de-escalation hopes: S&P 500 up ~2.2%, Dow up ~2.3%, Russell 2000 up ~3%. Asian markets had their worst day in nearly a year overnight before the rally.
Gas hit $3.96 AAA (Mar 23), the 23rd straight daily increase, highest since August 2022. Up 36% from pre-war $2.92.
IEA head Fatih Birol: the crisis is "worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined" and represents a "major, major threat" to the global economy. More than 40 Middle East energy assets "severely damaged."
Despite the talks claim, "unprecedented" Israeli strikes on Tehran continued. Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Dimona casualty toll rose to 180+. Iran's 337th attack wave on Israel. UAE: 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,789 UAVs intercepted since war began.
DHS shutdown Day 37: ICE agents deployed to 14 airports Monday. Record 11.5% single-day callout rate Saturday. 366 TSA officers quit. Hours-long lines at JFK, O'Hare, Atlanta, Philadelphia.

Mar 20: Structural audit and evening update

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran about ending the war. Iran's parliament speaker and foreign ministry denied any negotiations, calling Trump's move an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time.
Oil whipsawed: Brent surged above $114 Monday morning on continued war fears, then crashed more than 7% to ~$104 after Trump's announcement. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $110 for March-April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 record ($147) if Hormuz remains shut.
Markets surged on de-escalation hopes: S&P 500 up ~2.2%, Dow up ~2.3%, Russell 2000 up ~3%. Asian markets had their worst day in nearly a year overnight before the rally.
Gas hit $3.96 AAA (Mar 23), the 23rd straight daily increase, highest since August 2022. Up 36% from pre-war $2.92.
IEA head Fatih Birol: the crisis is "worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined" and represents a "major, major threat" to the global economy. More than 40 Middle East energy assets "severely damaged."
Despite the talks claim, "unprecedented" Israeli strikes on Tehran continued. Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Dimona casualty toll rose to 180+. Iran's 337th attack wave on Israel. UAE: 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,789 UAVs intercepted since war began.
DHS shutdown Day 37: ICE agents deployed to 14 airports Monday. Record 11.5% single-day callout rate Saturday. 366 TSA officers quit. Hours-long lines at JFK, O'Hare, Atlanta, Philadelphia.

Mar 19: Spot update

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 20: Israel struck South Pars gas field (shared with Qatar), Iran retaliated against Ras Laffan LNG terminal, Saudi refineries, and UAE. Brent hit $119 intraday, highest of the conflict. Qatar expelled Iranian military diplomats. Saudi Arabia warned of "military actions." Trump threatened to destroy South Pars if Iran hits Qatar again.
Pentagon requests $200B in supplemental war funding. Hegseth: "It takes money to kill bad guys." Hegseth announced "largest strike package yet" against Iran.
Silver Bulletin Trump approval hits new model low: net -15.3 (was -13.9 on Mar 16, -13.5 at start of month). First meaningful erosion since war began.
Joe Kent (former counterterrorism chief) resignation triggers FBI leak investigation. Kent told Carlson: "no intelligence" of imminent Iran threat, "the Israelis drove the decision." Gabbard accused of altering Senate testimony on Iran.
Gas hits $3.884/gal AAA (Mar 19), up 28 cents in one week. Pre-war: $2.92. Markets: Dow -768 on Fed day (Mar 18); S&P 500 below 200-day MA; Russell 2000 nearing correction territory.
Maine primary intensifies: Mills launches first negative ad targeting Platner's Reddit posts. EMILY's List signals imminent intervention. CBS: race growing "increasingly bitter" with 12 weeks to June 9.
Ohio Senate poll: OnMessage (GOP firm, Mar 3-8, 600 LV): Brown 47%, Husted 45% — first 2026 poll with Brown ahead (within MOE). Healthcare costs top voter concern.
ECB holds rates citing Iran war uncertainty, joining Fed in flagging energy shock as a monetary policy constraint.

Sections updated: SOURCES, PART I, Dashboard, Changelog, The Forces Shaping 2026

Mar 18: Document update

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran about ending the war. Iran's parliament speaker and foreign ministry denied any negotiations, calling Trump's move an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time.
Oil whipsawed: Brent surged above $114 Monday morning on continued war fears, then crashed more than 7% to ~$104 after Trump's announcement. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $110 for March-April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 record ($147) if Hormuz remains shut.
Markets surged on de-escalation hopes: S&P 500 up ~2.2%, Dow up ~2.3%, Russell 2000 up ~3%. Asian markets had their worst day in nearly a year overnight before the rally.
Gas hit $3.96 AAA (Mar 23), the 23rd straight daily increase, highest since August 2022. Up 36% from pre-war $2.92.
IEA head Fatih Birol: the crisis is "worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined" and represents a "major, major threat" to the global economy. More than 40 Middle East energy assets "severely damaged."
Despite the talks claim, "unprecedented" Israeli strikes on Tehran continued. Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Dimona casualty toll rose to 180+. Iran's 337th attack wave on Israel. UAE: 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,789 UAVs intercepted since war began.
DHS shutdown Day 37: ICE agents deployed to 14 airports Monday. Record 11.5% single-day callout rate Saturday. 366 TSA officers quit. Hours-long lines at JFK, O'Hare, Atlanta, Philadelphia.

Mar 17: Iran war Day 17: IEA calls this largest supply disruption in oil market history,

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran about ending the war. Iran's parliament speaker and foreign ministry denied any negotiations, calling Trump's move an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time.
Oil whipsawed: Brent surged above $114 Monday morning on continued war fears, then crashed more than 7% to ~$104 after Trump's announcement. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $110 for March-April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 record ($147) if Hormuz remains shut.
Markets surged on de-escalation hopes: S&P 500 up ~2.2%, Dow up ~2.3%, Russell 2000 up ~3%. Asian markets had their worst day in nearly a year overnight before the rally.
Gas hit $3.96 AAA (Mar 23), the 23rd straight daily increase, highest since August 2022. Up 36% from pre-war $2.92.
IEA head Fatih Birol: the crisis is "worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined" and represents a "major, major threat" to the global economy. More than 40 Middle East energy assets "severely damaged."
Despite the talks claim, "unprecedented" Israeli strikes on Tehran continued. Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Dimona casualty toll rose to 180+. Iran's 337th attack wave on Israel. UAE: 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,789 UAVs intercepted since war began.
DHS shutdown Day 37: ICE agents deployed to 14 airports Monday. Record 11.5% single-day callout rate Saturday. 366 TSA officers quit. Hours-long lines at JFK, O'Hare, Atlanta, Philadelphia.

Mar 16: Wealth inequality section expanded with sourced First Gilded Age comparison, bil

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran about ending the war. Iran's parliament speaker and foreign ministry denied any negotiations, calling Trump's move an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time.
Oil whipsawed: Brent surged above $114 Monday morning on continued war fears, then crashed more than 7% to ~$104 after Trump's announcement. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $110 for March-April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 record ($147) if Hormuz remains shut.
Markets surged on de-escalation hopes: S&P 500 up ~2.2%, Dow up ~2.3%, Russell 2000 up ~3%. Asian markets had their worst day in nearly a year overnight before the rally.
Gas hit $3.96 AAA (Mar 23), the 23rd straight daily increase, highest since August 2022. Up 36% from pre-war $2.92.
IEA head Fatih Birol: the crisis is "worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined" and represents a "major, major threat" to the global economy. More than 40 Middle East energy assets "severely damaged."
Despite the talks claim, "unprecedented" Israeli strikes on Tehran continued. Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Dimona casualty toll rose to 180+. Iran's 337th attack wave on Israel. UAE: 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,789 UAVs intercepted since war began.
DHS shutdown Day 37: ICE agents deployed to 14 airports Monday. Record 11.5% single-day callout rate Saturday. 366 TSA officers quit. Hours-long lines at JFK, O'Hare, Atlanta, Philadelphia.