Toss-up

A Toss-up rating means neither party has a measurable advantage at the time of writing. The race is genuinely competitive — within roughly three points in available polling, or close enough that polling error swamps any signal.

Forecasters use Toss-up as a category, not a probability claim. Calling a race Toss-up does not mean each party has a 50% chance — it means whatever advantage exists is too small to call confidently. A race rated Toss-up by Cook, Sabato, and Thin Gold can still go 60–40 in the polls; the rating reflects what is known, not what is likely.

Races graduate out of Toss-up when one side establishes a durable lead — typically a sustained polling advantage outside the margin of error, or a fundraising gap large enough to telegraph the campaign’s confidence about the closing weeks.