Updates | Thin Gold

Jul 19

Senate races, Iran war, and Maine Senate refreshed 18 data refreshes since July 1, 2026

Data

Jun 24

Senate races, Iran war, and Maine Senate refreshed 10 data refreshes since June 15, 2026

Data

Apr 20

Apr 20: Cook shifts four Senate seats toward Democrats

Cook moved NC and GA to Lean D, OH to Toss-up, NE to Likely R on Apr 13; NJ-11 special Apr 16 went Mejia +20, twelve past the district's 2024 Harris+8 lean.

Overview
Senate races
House races
Iran war

Approval-16.6 (Silver Bulletin, Apr 18)

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Apr 19

Apr 19: Iran Closes Hormuz Again

Three polls available from RealClearPolling. MPRC (April 16, 2026): Platner 48, Collins 39, Platner +9. Emerson (date unspecified, within recent cycle): Platner 48, Collins 41, Platner +7. These two polls show the Democratic challenger Platner ahead in a general matchup. A separate MPRC poll (April 16, 2026) tests Mills vs. Collins: Collins 45, Mills 42, Collins +3, suggesting Collins performs better against a different potential Democratic opponent. Track B fetch for RCP Maine average failed (page_content_empty).

Overview
Senate races
State of play
Iran war

ApprovalNet -14.9Unemployment4.3%S&P 5007,022.95

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Apr 14

Apr 14: Gas Hits $4.12 as Hormuz Blockade Holds

Two pollsters active in April 2026. MPRC (April 7, 2026): Platner 48, Collins 39 (Platner +9); Collins 45, Mills 42 (Collins +3). Emerson College (March 30, 2026): Platner 48, Collins 41 (Platner +7); Mills 46, Collins 43 (Mills +3). Across both pollsters, Platner leads Collins by 7-9 points in head-to-head matchups. The Mills vs. Collins matchup is split: Collins +3 in MPRC, Mills +3 in Emerson. Track B RCP fetch failed (page_content_empty).

Overview
Senate races
Iran war

Generic ballotD+5.4ApprovalNet -15.2Unemployment4.3%S&P 5006,886.24

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Apr 13

Apr 13: U.S. Blockade of Iran Begins

MPRC poll (April 7, 2026): Platner (D) 48, Collins (R) 39, Platner +9. Separate MPRC matchup (April 7, 2026): Collins (R) 45, Mills (D) 42, Collins +3. Track B RCP fetch failed (page_content_empty); Track A is sole source.

Overview
Iran war

Generic ballotD+5.4ApprovalNet -15.1Unemployment4.3%S&P 5006,816.89

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Apr 12

Apr 12: Iran Talks Collapse on Day 45

Three polls from MPRC and Quantus Insights via RealClearPolling show a split picture depending on the Democratic challenger. Collins leads Janet Mills 45-42 (Collins +3, MPRC, April 7, 2026) and 45-43 (Collins +2, Quantus Insights, March 30, 2026). Against Chloe Platner, Collins trails 48-39 (Platner +9, MPRC, April 7, 2026). Track B fetch for ME_senate.general returned page_content_empty.

Overview
Iran war

Generic ballotD+5.4ApprovalNet -15.1Unemployment4.3%S&P 5006,816.89

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Apr 10

Apr 10: U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Holds

Two polls from MPRC via RealClearPolling dated April 7-10, 2026. General election: Collins 45, Mills 42 (Collins +3). Separate primary/general matchup: Platner 48, Collins 39 (Platner +9). Track B fetch for ME_senate.general returned page_content_empty; Track A values used.

Overview
Senate races
State of play
Iran war

Generic ballotD+5.4ApprovalNet -14.6Unemployment4.3%S&P 5006,824.66

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Apr 9

Apr 9: Platner Leads Collins by 9

April 7, 2026 polling (source not identified beyond RealClearPolling aggregation): Democratic primary shows Platner at 61%, Mills at 28% (Platner +33). General election matchup Collins vs. Platner: Platner 48%, Collins 39% (Platner +9). Collins vs. Mills general: Collins 45%, Mills 42% (Collins +3). Platner holds the largest advantage of any Democratic challenger tested against Collins.

Overview

Generic ballotD+5.4ApprovalNet -15.1Unemployment4.3%S&P 5006,782.81

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Apr 8

Apr 8: Platner Leads Collins by 9 in Maine

MPRC poll released April 7, 2026: Democratic primary — Platner 61%, Mills 28%, Platner +33. General matchups: Collins vs. Platner — Platner 48%, Collins 39%, Platner +9; Collins vs. Mills — Collins 45%, Mills 42%, Collins +3. Platner leads both the primary and the general head-to-head against Collins. Inside Elections rates the seat Toss-up (last updated July 24, 2025).

Overview
Senate races

Generic ballotD+5.8ApprovalNet -15.1Unemployment4.3%S&P 5006,616.85

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Apr 7

Apr 7: Gas Hits $4.14 Nationally

Three Emerson College polls conducted April 2, 2026, tested Florida Senate special election matchups. Moody (R) leads Vindman (D) 46-38 (Moody +8); leads Mujica (D) 45-38 (Moody +7); leads Nixon (D) 47-36 (Moody +11). Sample sizes not reported in source. These are the most recent available polls for this race.

Overview

Generic ballotD+5.7ApprovalNet -14.7Unemployment4.3%S&P 5006,611.83

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Apr 6

Apr 6: Maine polls show Platner leading Collins by 4 to 11 points across four surveys

Multiple polls from April 2, 2026, show Sara Gideon challenger Chloe Platner leading incumbent Susan Collins by margins of +4 to +11 depending on pollster: Emerson +7, Quantus Insights +7, Pan Atlantic +4, UNH +11. In a Collins vs. Mills general matchup, results are mixed, ranging from Collins +2 to Mills +3 with one tie (Pan Atlantic). In the Democratic primary, Platner leads Mills by wide margins: Emerson +27, Quantus Insights +5, Pan Atlantic +7, UNH +38.

Overview

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Apr 5

Apr 5: 23 state AGs sue to block executive order restricting mail voting

Two polls released April 2, 2026. Emerson: Platner (D) 48%, Collins (R) 41% (Platner +7); Mills (D) 46%, Collins (R) 43% (Mills +3). Quantus Insights: Platner (D) 49%, Collins (R) 42% (Platner +7); Mills (D) 43%, Collins (R) 45% (Collins +2). Sample sizes not reported for either poll. Both polls date April 2, 2026.