Generic ballot
Generic ballot now reads D+7.3.
The dashboard see all →
Generic ballot
D+7.3
↑
Latest special (vs 2024)
D+20.3
↑
Net approval
-19.1
↑
Real wages (production)
3.7%
↑
Headline inflation
3.8%
↑
Unemployment (U-3)
4.3%
flat
Gas (AAA/gal)
$4.5
flat
Diesel (AAA/gal)
$5.6
↓
Bars show D / R margin in latest poll average.
GA TU+0.0
ME TU+0.0
MI TU+0.0
NC TU+0.0
Household pressure points by week.
Core inflation
2.7% ↑ from 2.6%
Underemployment (U-6)
8.2% ↑ from 7.8%
Nominal wages
3.6% ↓ from 4.1%
Consumer sentiment
49.8 ↓ from 53.3
S&P 500
7,580.06 ↑ from 7,473.47
10-year Treasury
4.6% ↓ from 4.6%
Dated events on the path to November.
Jun 09 ME Senate D primary Platner vs. Mills in 5d
Aug 04 MI/MN Senate D primaries El-Sayed vs. McMorrow; Flanagan vs. Craig in 61d
What changed since you last visited.
- Apr 20 Apr 20: Cook shifts four Senate seats toward Democrats Front matter
- Apr 19 Apr 19: Iran Closes Hormuz Again Front matter
- Apr 14 Apr 14: Gas Hits $4.12 as Hormuz Blockade Holds Front matter
Part · Forces
The Forces Shaping 2026
War, tariffs, DOGE, healthcare, AI anxiety, wealth concentration, DHS dysfunction, and immigration enforcement - eight accelerants creating a compound political shock with no historical parallel in midterm cycles.
Part · Part I
U.S. Senate Races
ME, NC, GA, MI are the battlefield. Tier system tracks all 35 races by flip probability.
Part · Part II
U.S. House Races
435 total. 30+ competitive. Historical pattern: opposition gains 25+ seats in wave environments.