The Iran War, by the Numbers
A standing dispatch on the 2026 Iran war: what we can source about the conflict, and how it reaches home
Unverified. Past its own check-in window. No newer publication is on record for this dispatch since then; we do not know whether the story moved.
The expected update window passed at Sunday, October 18 at 4:38 PM Eastern. No newer publication is on record since then. If no newer publication is on record when this check-in window elapses again, this dispatch moves to Frozen and says so at the top of the page.
| Last published | |
|---|---|
| Last verified | |
| Current status, as of | No section stamp |
| The Human Cost, as of | No section stamp |
| What It Costs the 2026 Voter, as of | No section stamp |
| The War So Far, generated |
What changed
Since the last edition
Where things stand
The war, in figures we can source
-
War day
233
Oct 18, 2026
-
$4.35/gal
Oct 5, 2026
-
Brent crude
$120.03/bbl
Oct 2, 2026
-
Inflation
3.7%
Sep 1, 2026
The war
- The war is in day 233 as of Oct 18, 2026 (Wikipedia, counted from the war’s start date).
Shipping, oil and prices
- Regular gasoline averaged $4.35/gal nationally for the week of Oct 5, 2026 (EIA weekly retail average, via FRED).
- Brent crude oil was $120.03 a barrel as of Oct 2, 2026 (EIA weekly Brent spot price).
- Consumer prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier in the reading dated Sep 1, 2026 (BLS CPI-U, via FRED).
Prices and approval since the war began
The war began Feb 28, 2026, per the first row of the Defense casualty timeline. Each panel has its own scale and date.
First $4.35, Oct 5, 2026. 2 in all.
Start $78.00, Feb 28, 2026. 19 since.
Start 2.4%, Feb 2026. 1 since.
Start -14.9, Feb 25, 2026. 18 since.
Each panel is scaled on its own readings and stamps its own date. Compare direction across panels, not height.
How to read this figure, and the Lab figures behind it
Each panel starts from the last reading on or before the war began (the first reading since, where none came before). Every reading drawn is in the table.
The marks are spaced by reading, not by calendar day, so a wide gap between readings does not show as a wide gap on the line.
The panels sit side by side in time. This figure does not claim that one moved another.
Net approval is the spliced polling average the Evidence Lab draws; the publisher of each reading is in the table when the row names one.
In the Evidence Lab: Gasoline price history (Fig. 10) · Consumer prices (Fig. 8) · Approval and the generic ballot (Fig. 16)
Show the 43 readings behind the four panels
| Measure | Date | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasoline, dollars a gallon | Oct 5, 2026 | $4.35 | |
| Gasoline, dollars a gallon | Oct 12, 2026 | $4.33 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Feb 28, 2026 | $78.00 | On or before the war began |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 5, 2026 | $120.00 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 8, 2026 | $95.00 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 10, 2026 | $88.00 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 13, 2026 | $100.00 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 15, 2026 | $103.50 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 16, 2026 | $102.14 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 18, 2026 | $108.78 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 19, 2026 | $113.71 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 20, 2026 | $107.40 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 21, 2026 | $110.00 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 23, 2026 | $114.00 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 24, 2026 | $102.47 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 25, 2026 | $99.75 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 26, 2026 | $105.85 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 28, 2026 | $112.57 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Mar 31, 2026 | $107.96 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Apr 1, 2026 | $104.86 | |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Oct 6, 2026 | $125.44 | EIA (Brent - Europe spot price) via FRED |
| Brent crude, dollars a barrel | Oct 14, 2026 | $126.55 | EIA (Brent - Europe spot price) via FRED |
| Consumer prices, change on a year earlier | Feb 2026 | 2.4% | On or before the war began |
| Consumer prices, change on a year earlier | Sep 2026 | 3.7% | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Feb 25, 2026 | -14.9 | On or before the war began |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 1, 2026 | -13.5 | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 4, 2026 | -13.5 | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 10, 2026 | -13 | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 14, 2026 | -13.9 | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 16, 2026 | -13.9 | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 19, 2026 | -15.3 | Silver Bulletin |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 25, 2026 | -15.3 | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 26, 2026 | -16.7 | |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 30, 2026 | -17.4 | Silver Bulletin |
| Presidential net approval, points | Mar 31, 2026 | -15.9 | RealClearPolitics |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 4, 2026 | -17.6 | Silver Bulletin |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 7, 2026 | -16.3 | Silver Bulletin |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 8, 2026 | -14.9 | RealClearPolitics |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 10, 2026 | -15.1 | RealClearPolitics |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 13, 2026 | -15.1 | RealClearPolitics |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 14, 2026 | -15.2 | RealClearPolitics |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 17, 2026 | -16.6 | Silver Bulletin |
| Presidential net approval, points | Apr 19, 2026 | -16.6 | Silver Bulletin |
No sourced figure held
- US service members killed and wounded: no sourced figure held. We do not yet fetch and check the Department of Defense’s count, so we show none.
- People forced from their homes: no sourced figure held. We do not yet fetch and check a UNHCR displacement count, so we show none.
- Deaths and injuries in Iran and the region: no sourced figure held. We do not yet fetch and check a count from a UN monitor or a named human-rights monitor, so we show none.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz: no sourced figure held. We do not yet fetch and check a transit or tanker count, so we show none.
Politics at home
- President Trump’s net approval (approve minus disapprove) was -23.9 points as of Oct 16, 2026 (Wikipedia’s compiled poll average).
- The generic congressional ballot stood at D+8.3 as of Oct 18, 2026 (Wikipedia’s compiled poll average).
- Across 6 House special elections this Congress with official results, Democrats ran an average of 18.2 points ahead of their districts' 2024 presidential margins. Source: State election offices, official results, through Apr 16, 2026.
These figures moved over the same months. This page does not claim that one caused another.
"Since the last edition" above means the last time our automated update ran, not necessarily when each section below was itself verified. A section's own verification date can be older than the edition it renders in; each section states its own date.
Dispatch section
Current Status
The war between the United States and Iran, which began in February 2026, has entered a period of intensified maritime conflict alongside a diplomatic stalemate. We don't have to.
Dispatch section
The Human Cost
Killed
Awaiting a verified source
We publish this figure only when a named public source reports it.
Wounded
Awaiting a verified source
We publish this figure only when a named public source reports it.
Displaced
Awaiting a verified source
We publish this figure only when a named public source reports it.
Dispatch section
What It Costs the 2026 Voter
The U.S. consumer price index rose 3.7 percent in September on an annual basis, up from 3.4 percent in August, with rising gasoline and energy costs tied to the Iran war cited as the primary driver, per CNBC on October 14. Over the same weeks of rising fuel costs, AP News reported that congressional votes on the Iran war have become a focal point for campaign advertisements ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, and the Financial Times reported that a poll found Democrats' lead among independent voters has grown.
Gas, U.S. avg
$4.33/gal
EIA weekly · 2026-10-12
CPI inflation
3.7%
BLS · 2026-09-01
Trump approval (net)
-23.9
Wikipedia poll average · 2026-10-16
Generic ballot
D+8.3
Wikipedia poll average · 2026-10-18
Dispatch section
The War So Far
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC's Squawk Box that WTI crude was trading around $92.50 and that he believed prices could rally another $20 to $25 per barrel, adding: "If something to ameliorate the situation was going to happen, it would have happened already before the midterms." Trump said on October 8 that he would not resume U.S. strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, per CNBC.