Senate 2026

The 2026 Senate map runs through Ohio, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and a handful of other states where the populism thesis is being tested in real time. Republicans are defending more competitive seats than Democrats, but the cycle's terrain is also distinctive in another way: the most competitive races are the ones where economic-concentration politics most clearly cuts across the standard partisan axis.

Thin Gold tracks every Senate race that any major forecaster considers competitive, plus a few that aren't competitive yet but could become so. Per-race ratings update when the underlying evidence does — fundraising, ad reservations, polling movement, candidate exits. The race-tracker pages link to the relevant analysis sections and source data behind every rating.