Generic Ballot

The generic ballot is the polling industry's national-mood indicator: a single survey question asking which party respondents would support for Congress, without naming specific candidates. It tends to compress as the cycle progresses — a four-point spring lead may be one or two points by November when actual candidates and local issues take over.

For Thin Gold's purposes, the generic ballot is more useful for detecting *shifts* in environment than for predicting any single race. Congressional races are decided by candidate quality, money, and district lean far more than by the national mood. But when the generic ballot moves several points in a quarter, it usually anticipates a wave of race-rating changes a few weeks later.