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2026 election guide

Races

Senate card tracker and House race table rated by competitiveness, with candidate matchups and populist alignment.

Fig. 1 · The House battlefield 435 seats · Ratings as of September 3, 2026 · Baselines as of August 16, 2026
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-Up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Settled · 2024 baseline
  • Unclassified
The House battlefield A tile-grid cartogram of 435 House races across 50 states. 435 are rated by an independent handicapper; 0 are settled seats shown by their presidential-baseline margin rather than left blank. The full race table accompanies this figure. AK ME VT NH WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC OK LA MS AL GA HI TX FL AK-AL — Likely R (rated) ME-01 — Solid D (rated) ME-02 — Likely R (rated) VT-AL — Solid D (rated) NH-01 — Likely D (rated) NH-02 — Solid D (rated) WA-01 — Solid D (rated) WA-02 — Solid D (rated) WA-03 — Toss-Up (rated) WA-04 — Solid R (rated) WA-05 — Solid R (rated) WA-06 — Solid D (rated) WA-07 — Solid D (rated) WA-08 — Solid D (rated) WA-09 — Solid D (rated) WA-10 — Solid D (rated) ID-01 — Solid R (rated) ID-02 — Solid R (rated) MT-01 — Likely R (rated) MT-02 — Solid R (rated) ND-AL — Solid R (rated) MN-01 — Likely R (rated) MN-02 — Likely D (rated) MN-03 — Solid D (rated) MN-04 — Solid D (rated) MN-05 — Solid D (rated) MN-06 — Solid R (rated) MN-07 — Solid R (rated) MN-08 — Solid R (rated) IL-01 — Solid D (rated) IL-02 — Solid D (rated) IL-03 — Solid D (rated) IL-04 — Solid D (rated) IL-05 — Solid D (rated) IL-06 — Solid D (rated) IL-07 — Solid D (rated) IL-08 — Solid D (rated) IL-09 — Solid D (rated) IL-10 — Solid D (rated) IL-11 — Solid D (rated) IL-12 — Solid R (rated) IL-13 — Solid D (rated) IL-14 — Solid D (rated) IL-15 — Solid R (rated) IL-16 — Solid R (rated) IL-17 — Solid D (rated) WI-01 — Likely R (rated) WI-02 — Solid D (rated) WI-03 — Toss-Up (rated) WI-04 — Solid D (rated) WI-05 — Solid R (rated) WI-06 — Solid R (rated) WI-07 — Solid R (rated) WI-08 — Solid R (rated) MI-01 — Solid R (rated) MI-02 — Solid R (rated) MI-03 — Solid D (rated) MI-04 — Lean R (rated) MI-05 — Solid R (rated) MI-06 — Solid D (rated) MI-07 — Toss-Up (rated) MI-08 — Likely D (rated) MI-09 — Solid R (rated) MI-10 — Toss-Up (rated) MI-11 — Solid D (rated) MI-12 — Solid D (rated) MI-13 — Solid D (rated) NY-01 — Solid R (rated) NY-02 — Solid R (rated) NY-03 — Lean D (rated) NY-04 — Lean D (rated) NY-05 — Solid D (rated) NY-06 — Solid D (rated) NY-07 — Solid D (rated) NY-08 — Solid D (rated) NY-09 — Solid D (rated) NY-10 — Solid D (rated) NY-11 — Solid R (rated) NY-12 — Solid D (rated) NY-13 — Solid D (rated) NY-14 — Solid D (rated) NY-15 — Solid D (rated) NY-16 — Solid D (rated) NY-17 — Toss-Up (rated) NY-18 — Solid D (rated) NY-19 — Likely D (rated) NY-20 — Solid D (rated) NY-21 — Solid R (rated) NY-22 — Solid D (rated) NY-23 — Solid R (rated) NY-24 — Solid R (rated) NY-25 — Solid D (rated) NY-26 — Solid D (rated) RI-01 — Solid D (rated) RI-02 — Solid D (rated) MA-01 — Solid D (rated) MA-02 — Solid D (rated) MA-03 — Solid D (rated) MA-04 — Solid D (rated) MA-05 — Solid D (rated) MA-06 — Solid D (rated) MA-07 — Solid D (rated) MA-08 — Solid D (rated) MA-09 — Solid D (rated) OR-01 — Solid D (rated) OR-02 — Solid R (rated) OR-03 — Solid D (rated) OR-04 — Solid D (rated) OR-05 — Solid D (rated) OR-06 — Solid D (rated) NV-01 — Likely D (rated) NV-02 — Solid R (rated) NV-03 — Lean D (rated) NV-04 — Likely D (rated) WY-AL — Solid R (rated) SD-AL — Solid R (rated) IA-01 — Toss-Up (rated) IA-02 — Lean R (rated) IA-03 — Toss-Up (rated) IA-04 — Solid R (rated) IN-01 — Likely D (rated) IN-02 — Solid R (rated) IN-03 — Solid R (rated) IN-04 — Solid R (rated) IN-05 — Solid R (rated) IN-06 — Solid R (rated) IN-07 — Solid D (rated) IN-08 — Solid R (rated) IN-09 — Solid R (rated) OH-01 — Lean D (rated) OH-02 — Solid R (rated) OH-03 — Solid D (rated) OH-04 — Solid R (rated) OH-05 — Solid R (rated) OH-06 — Solid R (rated) OH-07 — Toss-Up (rated) OH-08 — Solid R (rated) OH-09 — Toss-Up (rated) OH-10 — Likely R (rated) OH-11 — Solid D (rated) OH-12 — Solid R (rated) OH-13 — Likely D (rated) OH-14 — Solid R (rated) OH-15 — Likely R (rated) PA-01 — Likely R (rated) PA-02 — Solid D (rated) PA-03 — Solid D (rated) PA-04 — Solid D (rated) PA-05 — Solid D (rated) PA-06 — Solid D (rated) PA-07 — Toss-Up (rated) PA-08 — Toss-Up (rated) PA-09 — Solid R (rated) PA-10 — Toss-Up (rated) PA-11 — Solid R (rated) PA-12 — Solid D (rated) PA-13 — Solid R (rated) PA-14 — Solid R (rated) PA-15 — Solid R (rated) PA-16 — Solid R (rated) PA-17 — Solid D (rated) NJ-01 — Solid D (rated) NJ-02 — Solid R (rated) NJ-03 — Solid D (rated) NJ-04 — Solid R (rated) NJ-05 — Solid D (rated) NJ-06 — Solid D (rated) NJ-07 — Toss-Up (rated) NJ-08 — Solid D (rated) NJ-09 — Likely D (rated) NJ-10 — Solid D (rated) NJ-11 — Solid D (rated) NJ-12 — Solid D (rated) CT-01 — Solid D (rated) CT-02 — Solid D (rated) CT-03 — Solid D (rated) CT-04 — Solid D (rated) CT-05 — Solid D (rated) CA-01 — Solid D (rated) CA-02 — Solid D (rated) CA-03 — Solid D (rated) CA-04 — Solid D (rated) CA-05 — Solid R (rated) CA-06 — Solid D (rated) CA-07 — Solid D (rated) CA-08 — Solid D (rated) CA-09 — Solid D (rated) CA-10 — Solid D (rated) CA-11 — Solid D (rated) CA-12 — Solid D (rated) CA-13 — Lean D (rated) CA-14 — Solid D (rated) CA-15 — Solid D (rated) CA-16 — Solid D (rated) CA-17 — Solid D (rated) CA-18 — Solid D (rated) CA-19 — Solid D (rated) CA-20 — Solid R (rated) CA-21 — Likely D (rated) CA-22 — Toss-Up (rated) CA-23 — Solid R (rated) CA-24 — Solid D (rated) CA-25 — Solid D (rated) CA-26 — Solid D (rated) CA-27 — Solid D (rated) CA-28 — Solid D (rated) CA-29 — Solid D (rated) CA-30 — Solid D (rated) CA-31 — Solid D (rated) CA-32 — Solid D (rated) CA-33 — Solid D (rated) CA-34 — Solid D (rated) CA-35 — Solid D (rated) CA-36 — Solid D (rated) CA-37 — Solid D (rated) CA-38 — Solid D (rated) CA-39 — Solid D (rated) CA-40 — Solid R (rated) CA-41 — Solid D (rated) CA-42 — Solid D (rated) CA-43 — Solid D (rated) CA-44 — Solid D (rated) CA-45 — Likely D (rated) CA-46 — Solid D (rated) CA-47 — Solid D (rated) CA-48 — Lean D (rated) CA-49 — Solid D (rated) CA-50 — Solid D (rated) CA-51 — Solid D (rated) CA-52 — Solid D (rated) UT-01 — Solid D (rated) UT-02 — Solid R (rated) UT-03 — Solid R (rated) UT-04 — Solid R (rated) CO-01 — Solid D (rated) CO-02 — Solid D (rated) CO-03 — Likely R (rated) CO-04 — Solid R (rated) CO-05 — Likely R (rated) CO-06 — Solid D (rated) CO-07 — Solid D (rated) CO-08 — Toss-Up (rated) NE-01 — Solid R (rated) NE-02 — Lean D (rated) NE-03 — Solid R (rated) MO-01 — Solid D (rated) MO-02 — Solid R (rated) MO-03 — Solid R (rated) MO-04 — Solid R (rated) MO-05 — Solid R (rated) MO-06 — Solid R (rated) MO-07 — Solid R (rated) MO-08 — Solid R (rated) KY-01 — Solid R (rated) KY-02 — Solid R (rated) KY-03 — Solid D (rated) KY-04 — Solid R (rated) KY-05 — Solid R (rated) KY-06 — Likely R (rated) WV-01 — Solid R (rated) WV-02 — Solid R (rated) VA-01 — Lean R (rated) VA-02 — Toss-Up (rated) VA-03 — Solid D (rated) VA-04 — Solid D (rated) VA-05 — Solid R (rated) VA-06 — Solid R (rated) VA-07 — Likely D (rated) VA-08 — Solid D (rated) VA-09 — Solid R (rated) VA-10 — Solid D (rated) VA-11 — Solid D (rated) MD-01 — Solid R (rated) MD-02 — Solid D (rated) MD-03 — Solid D (rated) MD-04 — Solid D (rated) MD-05 — Solid D (rated) MD-06 — Solid D (rated) MD-07 — Solid D (rated) MD-08 — Solid D (rated) DE-AL — Solid D (rated) AZ-01 — Toss-Up (rated) AZ-02 — Likely R (rated) AZ-03 — Solid D (rated) AZ-04 — Solid D (rated) AZ-05 — Solid R (rated) AZ-06 — Toss-Up (rated) AZ-07 — Solid D (rated) AZ-08 — Solid R (rated) AZ-09 — Solid R (rated) NM-01 — Solid D (rated) NM-02 — Lean D (rated) NM-03 — Solid D (rated) KS-01 — Solid R (rated) KS-02 — Solid R (rated) KS-03 — Solid D (rated) KS-04 — Solid R (rated) AR-01 — Solid R (rated) AR-02 — Solid R (rated) AR-03 — Solid R (rated) AR-04 — Solid R (rated) TN-01 — Solid R (rated) TN-02 — Solid R (rated) TN-03 — Solid R (rated) TN-04 — Solid R (rated) TN-05 — Solid R (rated) TN-06 — Solid R (rated) TN-07 — Solid R (rated) TN-08 — Solid R (rated) TN-09 — Solid R (rated) NC-01 — Lean R (rated) NC-02 — Solid D (rated) NC-03 — Solid R (rated) NC-04 — Solid D (rated) NC-05 — Solid R (rated) NC-06 — Solid R (rated) NC-07 — Solid R (rated) NC-08 — Solid R (rated) NC-09 — Solid R (rated) NC-10 — Solid R (rated) NC-11 — Lean R (rated) NC-12 — Solid D (rated) NC-13 — Solid R (rated) NC-14 — Solid R (rated) SC-01 — Likely R (rated) SC-02 — Solid R (rated) SC-03 — Solid R (rated) SC-04 — Solid R (rated) SC-05 — Solid R (rated) SC-06 — Solid D (rated) SC-07 — Solid R (rated) OK-01 — Solid R (rated) OK-02 — Solid R (rated) OK-03 — Solid R (rated) OK-04 — Solid R (rated) OK-05 — Solid R (rated) LA-01 — Solid R (rated) LA-02 — Solid D (rated) LA-03 — Solid R (rated) LA-04 — Solid R (rated) LA-05 — Solid R (rated) LA-06 — Solid R (rated) MS-01 — Solid R (rated) MS-02 — Solid D (rated) MS-03 — Solid R (rated) MS-04 — Solid R (rated) AL-01 — Solid R (rated) AL-02 — Likely R (rated) AL-03 — Solid R (rated) AL-04 — Solid R (rated) AL-05 — Solid R (rated) AL-06 — Solid R (rated) AL-07 — Solid D (rated) GA-01 — Solid R (rated) GA-02 — Solid D (rated) GA-03 — Solid R (rated) GA-04 — Solid D (rated) GA-05 — Solid D (rated) GA-06 — Solid D (rated) GA-07 — Solid R (rated) GA-08 — Solid R (rated) GA-09 — Solid R (rated) GA-10 — Solid R (rated) GA-11 — Solid R (rated) GA-12 — Solid R (rated) GA-13 — Solid D (rated) GA-14 — Solid R (rated) HI-01 — Solid D (rated) HI-02 — Solid D (rated) TX-01 — Solid R (rated) TX-02 — Solid R (rated) TX-03 — Solid R (rated) TX-04 — Solid R (rated) TX-05 — Solid R (rated) TX-06 — Solid R (rated) TX-07 — Solid D (rated) TX-08 — Solid R (rated) TX-09 — Solid R (rated) TX-10 — Solid R (rated) TX-11 — Solid R (rated) TX-12 — Solid R (rated) TX-13 — Solid R (rated) TX-14 — Solid R (rated) TX-15 — Lean R (rated) TX-16 — Solid D (rated) TX-17 — Solid R (rated) TX-18 — Solid D (rated) TX-19 — Solid R (rated) TX-20 — Solid D (rated) TX-21 — Solid R (rated) TX-22 — Solid R (rated) TX-23 — Likely R (rated) TX-24 — Solid R (rated) TX-25 — Solid R (rated) TX-26 — Solid R (rated) TX-27 — Solid R (rated) TX-28 — Lean D (rated) TX-29 — Solid D (rated) TX-30 — Solid D (rated) TX-31 — Solid R (rated) TX-32 — Solid R (rated) TX-33 — Solid D (rated) TX-34 — Toss-Up (rated) TX-35 — Likely R (rated) TX-36 — Solid R (rated) TX-37 — Solid D (rated) TX-38 — Solid R (rated) FL-01 — Solid R (rated) FL-02 — Solid R (rated) FL-03 — Solid R (rated) FL-04 — Solid R (rated) FL-05 — Solid R (rated) FL-06 — Solid R (rated) FL-07 — Likely R (rated) FL-08 — Solid R (rated) FL-09 — Likely R (rated) FL-10 — Solid D (rated) FL-11 — Solid R (rated) FL-12 — Solid R (rated) FL-13 — Likely R (rated) FL-14 — Toss-Up (rated) FL-15 — Solid R (rated) FL-16 — Solid R (rated) FL-17 — Solid R (rated) FL-18 — Solid R (rated) FL-19 — Solid R (rated) FL-20 — Solid D (rated) FL-21 — Solid R (rated) FL-22 — Lean R (rated) FL-23 — Solid D (rated) FL-24 — Solid D (rated) FL-25 — Toss-Up (rated) FL-26 — Solid R (rated) FL-27 — Likely R (rated) FL-28 — Solid R (rated)

Northeast

CT-01
CT-02
CT-03
CT-04
CT-05
MA-01
MA-02
MA-03
MA-04
MA-05
MA-06
MA-07
MA-08
MA-09
ME-01
ME-02
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-01
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-04
NJ-05
NJ-06
NJ-07
NJ-08
NJ-09
NJ-10
NJ-11
NJ-12
NY-01
NY-02
NY-03
NY-04
NY-05
NY-06
NY-07
NY-08
NY-09
NY-10
NY-11
NY-12
NY-13
NY-14
NY-15
NY-16
NY-17
NY-18
NY-19
NY-20
NY-21
NY-22
NY-23
NY-24
NY-25
NY-26
PA-01
PA-02
PA-03
PA-04
PA-05
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-09
PA-10
PA-11
PA-12
PA-13
PA-14
PA-15
PA-16
PA-17
RI-01
RI-02
VT-AL

Midwest

IA-01
IA-02
IA-03
IA-04
IL-01
IL-02
IL-03
IL-04
IL-05
IL-06
IL-07
IL-08
IL-09
IL-10
IL-11
IL-12
IL-13
IL-14
IL-15
IL-16
IL-17
IN-01
IN-02
IN-03
IN-04
IN-05
IN-06
IN-07
IN-08
IN-09
KS-01
KS-02
KS-03
KS-04
MI-01
MI-02
MI-03
MI-04
MI-05
MI-06
MI-07
MI-08
MI-09
MI-10
MI-11
MI-12
MI-13
MN-01
MN-02
MN-03
MN-04
MN-05
MN-06
MN-07
MN-08
MO-01
MO-02
MO-03
MO-04
MO-05
MO-06
MO-07
MO-08
ND-AL
NE-01
NE-02
NE-03
OH-01
OH-02
OH-03
OH-04
OH-05
OH-06
OH-07
OH-08
OH-09
OH-10
OH-11
OH-12
OH-13
OH-14
OH-15
SD-AL
WI-01
WI-02
WI-03
WI-04
WI-05
WI-06
WI-07
WI-08

South

AL-01
AL-02
AL-03
AL-04
AL-05
AL-06
AL-07
AR-01
AR-02
AR-03
AR-04
DE-AL
FL-01
FL-02
FL-03
FL-04
FL-05
FL-06
FL-07
FL-08
FL-09
FL-10
FL-11
FL-12
FL-13
FL-14
FL-15
FL-16
FL-17
FL-18
FL-19
FL-20
FL-21
FL-22
FL-23
FL-24
FL-25
FL-26
FL-27
FL-28
GA-01
GA-02
GA-03
GA-04
GA-05
GA-06
GA-07
GA-08
GA-09
GA-10
GA-11
GA-12
GA-13
GA-14
KY-01
KY-02
KY-03
KY-04
KY-05
KY-06
LA-01
LA-02
LA-03
LA-04
LA-05
LA-06
MD-01
MD-02
MD-03
MD-04
MD-05
MD-06
MD-07
MD-08
MS-01
MS-02
MS-03
MS-04
NC-01
NC-02
NC-03
NC-04
NC-05
NC-06
NC-07
NC-08
NC-09
NC-10
NC-11
NC-12
NC-13
NC-14
OK-01
OK-02
OK-03
OK-04
OK-05
SC-01
SC-02
SC-03
SC-04
SC-05
SC-06
SC-07
TN-01
TN-02
TN-03
TN-04
TN-05
TN-06
TN-07
TN-08
TN-09
TX-01
TX-02
TX-03
TX-04
TX-05
TX-06
TX-07
TX-08
TX-09
TX-10
TX-11
TX-12
TX-13
TX-14
TX-15
TX-16
TX-17
TX-18
TX-19
TX-20
TX-21
TX-22
TX-23
TX-24
TX-25
TX-26
TX-27
TX-28
TX-29
TX-30
TX-31
TX-32
TX-33
TX-34
TX-35
TX-36
TX-37
TX-38
VA-01
VA-02
VA-03
VA-04
VA-05
VA-06
VA-07
VA-08
VA-09
VA-10
VA-11
WV-01
WV-02

West

AK-AL
AZ-01
AZ-02
AZ-03
AZ-04
AZ-05
AZ-06
AZ-07
AZ-08
AZ-09
CA-01
CA-02
CA-03
CA-04
CA-05
CA-06
CA-07
CA-08
CA-09
CA-10
CA-11
CA-12
CA-13
CA-14
CA-15
CA-16
CA-17
CA-18
CA-19
CA-20
CA-21
CA-22
CA-23
CA-24
CA-25
CA-26
CA-27
CA-28
CA-29
CA-30
CA-31
CA-32
CA-33
CA-34
CA-35
CA-36
CA-37
CA-38
CA-39
CA-40
CA-41
CA-42
CA-43
CA-44
CA-45
CA-46
CA-47
CA-48
CA-49
CA-50
CA-51
CA-52
CO-01
CO-02
CO-03
CO-04
CO-05
CO-06
CO-07
CO-08
HI-01
HI-02
ID-01
ID-02
MT-01
MT-02
NM-01
NM-02
NM-03
NV-01
NV-02
NV-03
NV-04
OR-01
OR-02
OR-03
OR-04
OR-05
OR-06
UT-01
UT-02
UT-03
UT-04
WA-01
WA-02
WA-03
WA-04
WA-05
WA-06
WA-07
WA-08
WA-09
WA-10
WY-AL
A tile-grid cartogram of 435 House races across 50 states. 435 are rated by an independent handicapper; 0 are settled seats shown by their presidential-baseline margin rather than left blank. The full race table accompanies this figure.
District Status Baseline
AK-AL Likely R (rated)
AL-01 Solid R (rated)
AL-02 Likely R (rated)
AL-03 Solid R (rated)
AL-04 Solid R (rated)
AL-05 Solid R (rated)
AL-06 Solid R (rated)
AL-07 Solid D (rated)
AR-01 Solid R (rated)
AR-02 Solid R (rated)
AR-03 Solid R (rated)
AR-04 Solid R (rated)
AZ-01 Toss-Up (rated)
AZ-02 Likely R (rated)
AZ-03 Solid D (rated)
AZ-04 Solid D (rated)
AZ-05 Solid R (rated)
AZ-06 Toss-Up (rated)
AZ-07 Solid D (rated)
AZ-08 Solid R (rated)
AZ-09 Solid R (rated)
CA-01 Solid D (rated)
CA-02 Solid D (rated)
CA-03 Solid D (rated)
CA-04 Solid D (rated)
CA-05 Solid R (rated)
CA-06 Solid D (rated)
CA-07 Solid D (rated)
CA-08 Solid D (rated)
CA-09 Solid D (rated)
CA-10 Solid D (rated)
CA-11 Solid D (rated)
CA-12 Solid D (rated)
CA-13 Lean D (rated)
CA-14 Solid D (rated)
CA-15 Solid D (rated)
CA-16 Solid D (rated)
CA-17 Solid D (rated)
CA-18 Solid D (rated)
CA-19 Solid D (rated)
CA-20 Solid R (rated)
CA-21 Likely D (rated)
CA-22 Toss-Up (rated)
CA-23 Solid R (rated)
CA-24 Solid D (rated)
CA-25 Solid D (rated)
CA-26 Solid D (rated)
CA-27 Solid D (rated)
CA-28 Solid D (rated)
CA-29 Solid D (rated)
CA-30 Solid D (rated)
CA-31 Solid D (rated)
CA-32 Solid D (rated)
CA-33 Solid D (rated)
CA-34 Solid D (rated)
CA-35 Solid D (rated)
CA-36 Solid D (rated)
CA-37 Solid D (rated)
CA-38 Solid D (rated)
CA-39 Solid D (rated)
CA-40 Solid R (rated)
CA-41 Solid D (rated)
CA-42 Solid D (rated)
CA-43 Solid D (rated)
CA-44 Solid D (rated)
CA-45 Likely D (rated)
CA-46 Solid D (rated)
CA-47 Solid D (rated)
CA-48 Lean D (rated)
CA-49 Solid D (rated)
CA-50 Solid D (rated)
CA-51 Solid D (rated)
CA-52 Solid D (rated)
CO-01 Solid D (rated)
CO-02 Solid D (rated)
CO-03 Likely R (rated)
CO-04 Solid R (rated)
CO-05 Likely R (rated)
CO-06 Solid D (rated)
CO-07 Solid D (rated)
CO-08 Toss-Up (rated)
CT-01 Solid D (rated)
CT-02 Solid D (rated)
CT-03 Solid D (rated)
CT-04 Solid D (rated)
CT-05 Solid D (rated)
DE-AL Solid D (rated)
FL-01 Solid R (rated)
FL-02 Solid R (rated)
FL-03 Solid R (rated)
FL-04 Solid R (rated)
FL-05 Solid R (rated)
FL-06 Solid R (rated)
FL-07 Likely R (rated)
FL-08 Solid R (rated)
FL-09 Likely R (rated)
FL-10 Solid D (rated)
FL-11 Solid R (rated)
FL-12 Solid R (rated)
FL-13 Likely R (rated)
FL-14 Toss-Up (rated)
FL-15 Solid R (rated)
FL-16 Solid R (rated)
FL-17 Solid R (rated)
FL-18 Solid R (rated)
FL-19 Solid R (rated)
FL-20 Solid D (rated)
FL-21 Solid R (rated)
FL-22 Lean R (rated)
FL-23 Solid D (rated)
FL-24 Solid D (rated)
FL-25 Toss-Up (rated)
FL-26 Solid R (rated)
FL-27 Likely R (rated)
FL-28 Solid R (rated)
GA-01 Solid R (rated)
GA-02 Solid D (rated)
GA-03 Solid R (rated)
GA-04 Solid D (rated)
GA-05 Solid D (rated)
GA-06 Solid D (rated)
GA-07 Solid R (rated)
GA-08 Solid R (rated)
GA-09 Solid R (rated)
GA-10 Solid R (rated)
GA-11 Solid R (rated)
GA-12 Solid R (rated)
GA-13 Solid D (rated)
GA-14 Solid R (rated)
HI-01 Solid D (rated)
HI-02 Solid D (rated)
IA-01 Toss-Up (rated)
IA-02 Lean R (rated)
IA-03 Toss-Up (rated)
IA-04 Solid R (rated)
ID-01 Solid R (rated)
ID-02 Solid R (rated)
IL-01 Solid D (rated)
IL-02 Solid D (rated)
IL-03 Solid D (rated)
IL-04 Solid D (rated)
IL-05 Solid D (rated)
IL-06 Solid D (rated)
IL-07 Solid D (rated)
IL-08 Solid D (rated)
IL-09 Solid D (rated)
IL-10 Solid D (rated)
IL-11 Solid D (rated)
IL-12 Solid R (rated)
IL-13 Solid D (rated)
IL-14 Solid D (rated)
IL-15 Solid R (rated)
IL-16 Solid R (rated)
IL-17 Solid D (rated)
IN-01 Likely D (rated)
IN-02 Solid R (rated)
IN-03 Solid R (rated)
IN-04 Solid R (rated)
IN-05 Solid R (rated)
IN-06 Solid R (rated)
IN-07 Solid D (rated)
IN-08 Solid R (rated)
IN-09 Solid R (rated)
KS-01 Solid R (rated)
KS-02 Solid R (rated)
KS-03 Solid D (rated)
KS-04 Solid R (rated)
KY-01 Solid R (rated)
KY-02 Solid R (rated)
KY-03 Solid D (rated)
KY-04 Solid R (rated)
KY-05 Solid R (rated)
KY-06 Likely R (rated)
LA-01 Solid R (rated)
LA-02 Solid D (rated)
LA-03 Solid R (rated)
LA-04 Solid R (rated)
LA-05 Solid R (rated)
LA-06 Solid R (rated)
MA-01 Solid D (rated)
MA-02 Solid D (rated)
MA-03 Solid D (rated)
MA-04 Solid D (rated)
MA-05 Solid D (rated)
MA-06 Solid D (rated)
MA-07 Solid D (rated)
MA-08 Solid D (rated)
MA-09 Solid D (rated)
MD-01 Solid R (rated)
MD-02 Solid D (rated)
MD-03 Solid D (rated)
MD-04 Solid D (rated)
MD-05 Solid D (rated)
MD-06 Solid D (rated)
MD-07 Solid D (rated)
MD-08 Solid D (rated)
ME-01 Solid D (rated)
ME-02 Likely R (rated)
MI-01 Solid R (rated)
MI-02 Solid R (rated)
MI-03 Solid D (rated)
MI-04 Lean R (rated)
MI-05 Solid R (rated)
MI-06 Solid D (rated)
MI-07 Toss-Up (rated)
MI-08 Likely D (rated)
MI-09 Solid R (rated)
MI-10 Toss-Up (rated)
MI-11 Solid D (rated)
MI-12 Solid D (rated)
MI-13 Solid D (rated)
MN-01 Likely R (rated)
MN-02 Likely D (rated)
MN-03 Solid D (rated)
MN-04 Solid D (rated)
MN-05 Solid D (rated)
MN-06 Solid R (rated)
MN-07 Solid R (rated)
MN-08 Solid R (rated)
MO-01 Solid D (rated)
MO-02 Solid R (rated)
MO-03 Solid R (rated)
MO-04 Solid R (rated)
MO-05 Solid R (rated)
MO-06 Solid R (rated)
MO-07 Solid R (rated)
MO-08 Solid R (rated)
MS-01 Solid R (rated)
MS-02 Solid D (rated)
MS-03 Solid R (rated)
MS-04 Solid R (rated)
MT-01 Likely R (rated)
MT-02 Solid R (rated)
NC-01 Lean R (rated)
NC-02 Solid D (rated)
NC-03 Solid R (rated)
NC-04 Solid D (rated)
NC-05 Solid R (rated)
NC-06 Solid R (rated)
NC-07 Solid R (rated)
NC-08 Solid R (rated)
NC-09 Solid R (rated)
NC-10 Solid R (rated)
NC-11 Lean R (rated)
NC-12 Solid D (rated)
NC-13 Solid R (rated)
NC-14 Solid R (rated)
ND-AL Solid R (rated)
NE-01 Solid R (rated)
NE-02 Lean D (rated)
NE-03 Solid R (rated)
NH-01 Likely D (rated)
NH-02 Solid D (rated)
NJ-01 Solid D (rated)
NJ-02 Solid R (rated)
NJ-03 Solid D (rated)
NJ-04 Solid R (rated)
NJ-05 Solid D (rated)
NJ-06 Solid D (rated)
NJ-07 Toss-Up (rated)
NJ-08 Solid D (rated)
NJ-09 Likely D (rated)
NJ-10 Solid D (rated)
NJ-11 Solid D (rated)
NJ-12 Solid D (rated)
NM-01 Solid D (rated)
NM-02 Lean D (rated)
NM-03 Solid D (rated)
NV-01 Likely D (rated)
NV-02 Solid R (rated)
NV-03 Lean D (rated)
NV-04 Likely D (rated)
NY-01 Solid R (rated)
NY-02 Solid R (rated)
NY-03 Lean D (rated)
NY-04 Lean D (rated)
NY-05 Solid D (rated)
NY-06 Solid D (rated)
NY-07 Solid D (rated)
NY-08 Solid D (rated)
NY-09 Solid D (rated)
NY-10 Solid D (rated)
NY-11 Solid R (rated)
NY-12 Solid D (rated)
NY-13 Solid D (rated)
NY-14 Solid D (rated)
NY-15 Solid D (rated)
NY-16 Solid D (rated)
NY-17 Toss-Up (rated)
NY-18 Solid D (rated)
NY-19 Likely D (rated)
NY-20 Solid D (rated)
NY-21 Solid R (rated)
NY-22 Solid D (rated)
NY-23 Solid R (rated)
NY-24 Solid R (rated)
NY-25 Solid D (rated)
NY-26 Solid D (rated)
OH-01 Lean D (rated)
OH-02 Solid R (rated)
OH-03 Solid D (rated)
OH-04 Solid R (rated)
OH-05 Solid R (rated)
OH-06 Solid R (rated)
OH-07 Toss-Up (rated)
OH-08 Solid R (rated)
OH-09 Toss-Up (rated)
OH-10 Likely R (rated)
OH-11 Solid D (rated)
OH-12 Solid R (rated)
OH-13 Likely D (rated)
OH-14 Solid R (rated)
OH-15 Likely R (rated)
OK-01 Solid R (rated)
OK-02 Solid R (rated)
OK-03 Solid R (rated)
OK-04 Solid R (rated)
OK-05 Solid R (rated)
OR-01 Solid D (rated)
OR-02 Solid R (rated)
OR-03 Solid D (rated)
OR-04 Solid D (rated)
OR-05 Solid D (rated)
OR-06 Solid D (rated)
PA-01 Likely R (rated)
PA-02 Solid D (rated)
PA-03 Solid D (rated)
PA-04 Solid D (rated)
PA-05 Solid D (rated)
PA-06 Solid D (rated)
PA-07 Toss-Up (rated)
PA-08 Toss-Up (rated)
PA-09 Solid R (rated)
PA-10 Toss-Up (rated)
PA-11 Solid R (rated)
PA-12 Solid D (rated)
PA-13 Solid R (rated)
PA-14 Solid R (rated)
PA-15 Solid R (rated)
PA-16 Solid R (rated)
PA-17 Solid D (rated)
RI-01 Solid D (rated)
RI-02 Solid D (rated)
SC-01 Likely R (rated)
SC-02 Solid R (rated)
SC-03 Solid R (rated)
SC-04 Solid R (rated)
SC-05 Solid R (rated)
SC-06 Solid D (rated)
SC-07 Solid R (rated)
SD-AL Solid R (rated)
TN-01 Solid R (rated)
TN-02 Solid R (rated)
TN-03 Solid R (rated)
TN-04 Solid R (rated)
TN-05 Solid R (rated)
TN-06 Solid R (rated)
TN-07 Solid R (rated)
TN-08 Solid R (rated)
TN-09 Solid R (rated)
TX-01 Solid R (rated)
TX-02 Solid R (rated)
TX-03 Solid R (rated)
TX-04 Solid R (rated)
TX-05 Solid R (rated)
TX-06 Solid R (rated)
TX-07 Solid D (rated)
TX-08 Solid R (rated)
TX-09 Solid R (rated)
TX-10 Solid R (rated)
TX-11 Solid R (rated)
TX-12 Solid R (rated)
TX-13 Solid R (rated)
TX-14 Solid R (rated)
TX-15 Lean R (rated)
TX-16 Solid D (rated)
TX-17 Solid R (rated)
TX-18 Solid D (rated)
TX-19 Solid R (rated)
TX-20 Solid D (rated)
TX-21 Solid R (rated)
TX-22 Solid R (rated)
TX-23 Likely R (rated)
TX-24 Solid R (rated)
TX-25 Solid R (rated)
TX-26 Solid R (rated)
TX-27 Solid R (rated)
TX-28 Lean D (rated)
TX-29 Solid D (rated)
TX-30 Solid D (rated)
TX-31 Solid R (rated)
TX-32 Solid R (rated)
TX-33 Solid D (rated)
TX-34 Toss-Up (rated)
TX-35 Likely R (rated)
TX-36 Solid R (rated)
TX-37 Solid D (rated)
TX-38 Solid R (rated)
UT-01 Solid D (rated)
UT-02 Solid R (rated)
UT-03 Solid R (rated)
UT-04 Solid R (rated)
VA-01 Lean R (rated)
VA-02 Toss-Up (rated)
VA-03 Solid D (rated)
VA-04 Solid D (rated)
VA-05 Solid R (rated)
VA-06 Solid R (rated)
VA-07 Likely D (rated)
VA-08 Solid D (rated)
VA-09 Solid R (rated)
VA-10 Solid D (rated)
VA-11 Solid D (rated)
VT-AL Solid D (rated)
WA-01 Solid D (rated)
WA-02 Solid D (rated)
WA-03 Toss-Up (rated)
WA-04 Solid R (rated)
WA-05 Solid R (rated)
WA-06 Solid D (rated)
WA-07 Solid D (rated)
WA-08 Solid D (rated)
WA-09 Solid D (rated)
WA-10 Solid D (rated)
WI-01 Likely R (rated)
WI-02 Solid D (rated)
WI-03 Toss-Up (rated)
WI-04 Solid D (rated)
WI-05 Solid R (rated)
WI-06 Solid R (rated)
WI-07 Solid R (rated)
WI-08 Solid R (rated)
WV-01 Solid R (rated)
WV-02 Solid R (rated)
WY-AL Solid R (rated)

Ratings: Cook Political Report, Race Ratings (as of September 3, 2026), with Sabato's Crystal Ball where a Cook Political Report rating is unavailable. Settled seats carry no rating: each is shown by the sign and depth of its 2024 presidential-vote margin in the district's current lines, sourced from The Downballot and receipted at ingestion: a measured past result, not a projection of this race.

2026 Forecast
Democrats are slightly favored to take Congress.
49% Democratic control

Republican control is unlikely (about 1 in 4).

Senate 51 D · 49 R
House Toss-up · 43% R majority odds

Seat range under calibration review.

Probabilities, not predictions. The margin of error is wide this far out. See the full forecast →

Chamber Senate
Rating
Senate
Toss-Up
Alaska
Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Solid R
Alabama
Tommy Tuberville (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Solid R
Arkansas
Tom Cotton (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid D
Colorado
John Hickenlooper (D)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid D
Delaware
Chris Coons (D)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid R
Florida (Special)
Primary Aug 18: Vindman, Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs Ashley Moody (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Lean D
Georgia
Jon Ossoff (D) vs R primary: Carter, Collins (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Toss-Up
Iowa
Primary June 2: Wahls, Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Solid R
Idaho
Jim Risch (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid D
Illinois
Juliana Stratton (D)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Likely R
Kansas
Roger Marshall (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid R
Kentucky
Primary May 19: Booker, McGrath (D) vs Primary May 19: Cameron, Barr, Morris (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Solid R
Louisiana
Runoff June 27: Letlow, Fleming (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Solid D
Massachusetts
Primary Sep 1: Markey, Moulton (D)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Toss-Up
Maine
Primary June 9: Platner, Mills, Costello (D) vs Susan Collins (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Toss-Up
Michigan
Primary Aug 4: McMorrow, El-Sayed, Stevens (D) vs Mike Rogers (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Likely D
Minnesota
Primary Aug 4: Flanagan, Craig (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Solid R
Mississippi
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid R
Montana
Reilly Neill (weak field) (D) vs Primary June 2: Kurt Alme (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Lean D
North Carolina
Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Likely R
Nebraska
Cindy Burbank (D) vs Pete Ricketts (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Lean D
New Hampshire
Chris Pappas (D) vs Primary: John E. Sununu, Scott Brown (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Solid D
New Jersey
Cory Booker (D)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid D
New Mexico
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Toss-Up
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Solid R
Oklahoma
James Lankford (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid D
Oregon
Jeff Merkley (D)
Populism: High
Senate
Solid D
Rhode Island
Jack Reed (D)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid R
South Carolina
Lindsey Graham (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid R
South Dakota
Mike Rounds (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid R
Tennessee
Bill Hagerty (R)
Populism: Low
Senate
Toss-Up
Texas
James Talarico (D) vs Runoff May 26: Cornyn vs Paxton (R)
Populism: High
Senate
Solid D
Virginia
Mark Warner (D)
Populism: Low
Senate
Solid R
West Virginia
Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Populism: Moderate
Senate
Solid R
Wyoming
Cynthia Lummis (R)
Populism: Low

Full 470-race forecast table

The model’s full race-by-race table, with win odds for every modeled seat, lives on the forecast page. See the full table on the forecast page.

Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, current as of September 3, 2026. See cookpolitical.com for the latest ratings and analysis. Read the full analysis for race-by-race breakdowns.