North Carolina
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely D | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely D |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: North Carolina State Board of Elections · state candidate list · as of October 18, 2026
No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.
North Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate race has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by D+7 in polling as of October 3, 2026. Cook Political Report rates the race "Likely D" (Added October 12, 2026), while Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Lean D" as of August 12, 2026. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com. The financial picture reinforces that gradient. As of the most recent FEC filings, Roy Cooper had raised $35.6 million in total cycle receipts and held $20.7 million in cash on hand. Michael Whatley's total cycle receipts reached $16.2 million, with $7.0 million in cash on hand as of the same period. That roughly 2-to-1 fundraising advantage gives Cooper a material edge in paid media through October. With the polling margin, the ratings consensus, and the cash-on-hand gap all pointing in the same direction, the competitive question is whether any late development narrows the race enough to move it back toward toss-up territory before November.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $35.6M
- Cash on hand
- $20.7M
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $16.2M
- Cash on hand
- $7M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Sep 30, 2026.
State demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $72,388 (±$324)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,228 (±$5)
- People below the poverty line
- 13.0% (±0.2%)
- People without health insurance
- 9.9% (±0.1%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 48.9% (±0.6%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , statewide; the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 9, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- October 15 to October 31, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- Individual polls are not listed: the poll rows on file for this race carry no source document.
- Outside spending totals are not shown: the figures on file for this race name no source or date.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.