The Congressional Forecast
Two models. One reads ratings and polls. One reads neither.
We run the same races twice. The main model is the published forecast: it reads race ratings, polls the pollster released itself, and each district’s partisan baseline. The fundamentals model is a comparison and nothing more: it reads district lean, the generic ballot and incumbency, and it refuses ratings and polls. We never blend them. We print the gap between them, and what each one can see.
The main model right now Control of the Senate is a coin flip. Democrats are slightly favored to take the House.
Main ratings and polls
Run of
5 of 470 races carry a poll the model can use
Fundamentals no ratings, no polls
Run of
Comparison only, untested, not the forecast.
How far to trust these numbers
We have not yet published a reliability test of this forecast against past elections, so its accuracy is untested. Until we do, read every chance on this page as an informed estimate, not a measured one. The 80 percent seat ranges for both chambers are the model’s own intervals, and how often real results land inside them has not been measured. Race by race, the interval is drawn as a width with no endpoints. The comparison model has not been tested at all. Read the calibration review.
Where the inputs come from
Each race rating on this page is credited to the rater that published it: Cook Political Report first, then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Split Ticket or FiftyPlusOne where Cook Political Report has none. Cook Political Report ratings carry the day we added them and a link to its own site. A poll counts only when the pollster released it itself. The comparison model reads none of them.
Jump to a chamber or a race
Senate
About a 2 in 5 chance of a Republican majority in the main model. The fundamentals model says about a 3 in 4 chance (comparison only, untested, not the forecast). The 80 percent seat range is shown, and its accuracy is untested.
House
About a 1 in 5 chance of a Republican majority in the main model. The fundamentals model says about a 1 in 3 chance (comparison only, untested, not the forecast). The 80 percent seat range is shown, and its accuracy is untested.
Fig. 1 · Who controls the Senate? Main run: October 18, 2026
Fundamentals run: October 17, 2026
Fundamentals run: October 17, 2026
Who controls the Senate?
Both rows sit on one seat axis. The solid row is the published model. The dashed row is the fundamentals comparison: comparison only, untested, not the forecast, and never blended into the number above it.
- Main · the published forecast
- Fundamentals · comparison only, untested, not the forecast
Control line: 50 Republican seats. A 50-50 Senate goes to the Vice President, a Republican, so Republicans control at 50.
Show the figures behind this chart
| Model | Median seats | Chance of an R majority | 80% seat range | Run | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main model | 49 R, 51 D | about a 2 in 5 chance | 46 to 52 R in 80% of simulations | October 18, 2026 | The published forecast. |
| Fundamentals model | 51 R, 49 D | about a 3 in 4 chance | no seat range carried | October 17, 2026 | Comparison only, untested, not the forecast. |
Two reads, one per model, each the latest of its own kind. No cross-model ordering and no blended value is computed anywhere on this page. The 80% seat range is the model’s own interval and its accuracy is untested; see the note under the House figure.
35.2 percentage points
How far apart the two models are on the Senate
For a Republican Senate majority, the main model says about a 2 in 5 chance and the comparison model (comparison only, untested, not the forecast) says about a 3 in 4 chance.
The comparison model reads neither race ratings nor polls. The main model reads both, and a poll the main model can use reaches 5 of 35 Senate races.
Simulation noise alone moves the gap by about 0.6 points. The comparison run is 32 hours older than the main run, so part of this gap may reflect the age of one run rather than disagreement between the models.
- Polled races
- 5 of 35 Senate races
- Simulation noise
- 0.6 pt
- Run gap
- 32 hours
Fig. 2 · Who controls the House? Main run: October 18, 2026
Fundamentals run: October 17, 2026
Fundamentals run: October 17, 2026
Who controls the House?
The same two instruments for the House: the published model, and the fundamentals comparison beside it on one seat axis.
- Main · the published forecast
- Fundamentals · comparison only, untested, not the forecast
Control line: 218 Republican seats, a majority of the 435.
Show the figures behind this chart
| Model | Median seats | Chance of an R majority | 80% seat range | Run | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main model | 206 R, 229 D | about a 1 in 5 chance | 189 to 223 R in 80% of simulations | October 18, 2026 | The published forecast. |
| Fundamentals model | 209 R, 226 D | about a 1 in 3 chance | no seat range carried | October 17, 2026 | Comparison only, untested, not the forecast. |
9.8 percentage points
How far apart the two models are on the House
For a Republican House majority, the main model says about a 1 in 5 chance and the comparison model (comparison only, untested, not the forecast) says about a 1 in 3 chance.
The comparison model reads neither race ratings nor polls. The main model reads both, and a poll the main model can use reaches 0 of 435 House races.
Simulation noise alone moves the gap by about 0.6 points. The comparison run is 32 hours older than the main run, so part of this gap may reflect the age of one run rather than disagreement between the models.
- Polled races
- 0 of 435 House races
- Simulation noise
- 0.6 pt
- Run gap
- 32 hours
Calibration review Range published
The seat range is the model’s own, and its accuracy is untested.
The Senate and House seat range on this page is the model’s 80 percent interval: in four of every five of its simulations, the seat count lands inside it. We have not tested it against past elections, so we do not know how often real results fall inside a range like this one. The editors decided on October 13, 2026 to publish it with that disclosure. Read it as a wide band, not a prediction.
What the range is
The model’s own 80 percent interval: the band that held the seat count in four of every five of its simulations.
What is still unknown
We have not tested it against past elections, so we do not know how often real results land inside an 80 percent range. Read it as the model’s stated uncertainty, not a measured one.
Reference: forecast methodology.
Governor races
We show no win probability for governor races. Our governor forecast has not yet passed its accuracy test against past elections, so these pages carry ratings, polls and fundraising instead.
Fig. 3 · The disclosures are on the page, not in a footnote Main run, October 18, 2026
The disclosures are on the page, not in a footnote
What the model cannot see
5 of 470 modeled races carry a poll the model can use.
- Carried a usable poll 5
- Had a poll that was removed 48
- No poll on record 417
| Races | Senate | House | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carried a usable poll | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Poll older than the 45-day limit | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Poll with no readable publication date | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poll not released by the pollster itself | 10 | 26 | 36 |
| Internal poll released by a campaign or party committee | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Poll cited for a different office | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| No poll on record: ran on ratings and baseline alone | 16 | 401 | 417 |
| Races modeled | 35 | 435 | 470 |
Counts are races, not polls, and come from what the run itself recorded. Nothing here is recomputed for display. The age limit this run applied is 45 days.
Movement since the last run
Moving toward Democrats R control of Congress -1 pts. Senate R odds -1 pts, median no change. Over 1 day.
Fig. 4 · What if the national mood shifts? Main run, October 18, 2026
What if the national mood shifts?
The page opens on this run’s own national mood, the same numbers as the headline above. The other scenarios are hypotheticals: they pin the national mood somewhere else and re-run the seats on the main model. Every scenario is in the table either way; with JavaScript on you can switch between them.
This run's national mood is D+5.5. The generic-ballot average reads D+8.3 (Wikipedia’s compiled poll average, Oct 18, 2026). The model does not simulate at the raw average: it shrinks it toward zero and applies a Republican-direction haircut first, so its own national mood reads lower (how it is built). The hypotheticals below are on the model's scale, not the raw one.
This run's own result, October 18, 2026, at its national mood of D+5.5. These are the headline numbers.
Senate 51D · 49R about a 2 in 5 chance of an R majority
House 229D · 206R about a 1 in 5 chance of an R majority
| Scenario | Senate (D · R) | Senate chance of an R majority | House (D · R) | House chance of an R majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This run (D+5.5) | 51D · 49R | about a 2 in 5 chance | 229D · 206R | about a 1 in 5 chance |
| If D+3 (hypothetical) | 50D · 50R | about a 3 in 5 chance | 222D · 213R | about a 1 in 3 chance |
| If even, D+0 (hypothetical) | 48D · 52R | about a 4 in 5 chance | 214D · 221R | about a 3 in 5 chance |
| If R+3 (hypothetical) | 47D · 53R | about a 19 in 20 chance | 207D · 228R | about a 4 in 5 chance |
Fig. 5 · Every race, with what its number rests on Main run, October 18, 2026
Every race, with what its number rests on
Where a published rater and our model disagree, both claims appear, and the token says whose claim is whose. A solid token is somebody else’s published rating. An outlined token is ours.
Showing 32 competitive races of 262.
Chamber
Rating
| Published rating | Range around our number | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 11, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 1 in 2chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| OH House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 1 in 2chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| OH House 9 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 1 in 2chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| IA House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 10, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 3 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| NC House 11 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 12, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 3 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| IA Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 3 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | A poll the model can use, 12 days old at the last run |
| TX Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 3 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | A poll the model can use, 10 days old at the last run |
| TX House 15 | Cook Political ReportAdded September 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Toss-up · about 3 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| TX House 34 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean D · about 3 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| ME House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 14, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean R · about 3 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| TX House 35 | Cook Political ReportAdded September 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean R · about 2 in 3chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| TX House 28 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean D · about 2 in 3chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| KS Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded October 12, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean R · about 2 in 3chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| MT House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 12, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean R · about 2 in 3chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| IA House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 10, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean D · about 2 in 3chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| MO House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded September 17, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean R · about 2 in 3chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| IA House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 10, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Lean D · about 3 in 4chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| CA House 22 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 3 in 4chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| WA House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 12, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 4 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| OH House 10 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 18, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely R · about 4 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| OH House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 18, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 4 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| AL House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely R · about 4 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| NM House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 4 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| KY House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 14, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely R · about 4 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| OH House 15 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 18, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely R · about 4 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| ME Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 4 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| CA House 13 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 4 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| SC House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely R · about 4 in 5chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| CA House 48 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 4 in 5chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| NC Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded October 12, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely D · about 9 in 10chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| TX House 23 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely R · about 9 in 10chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| NE Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Likely R · about 9 in 10chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| SC Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded October 15, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · about 9 in 10chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | A poll the model can use, 23 days old at the last run |
| TX House 9 | Cook Political ReportAdded September 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · about 9 in 10chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| NC House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · about 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| GA Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded September 30, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · about 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| IN House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 10, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · about 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| CA House 40 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · about 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · about 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| OH House 13 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · about 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| CA House 45 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · about 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| CA House 21 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| WA House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| SC House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 12 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 23 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 14 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 9 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 24 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 14 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 13 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OK House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 10 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 32 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| OR House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. A rater has it in play, and so does the district baseline |
| NC House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KS House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded October 17, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KS House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| SC House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 10 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 38 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 26 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 12 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 27 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 25 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OK House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 14 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 17 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 21 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 31 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MT Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 22 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 36 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 10 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| SC House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 11 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| SC House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| ID House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MS Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OR House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MO House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 35 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| UT House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| AL House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MS House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| SD House At-large | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MT House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 39 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 9 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 12 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 27 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 33 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 47 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| LA House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KS House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KS House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IA House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NM House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OR House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 9 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 25 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 20 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OR House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| UT House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 31 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 38 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| AL Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| RI House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NM House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OK House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 42 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| LA House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 9 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NM Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| LA House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 11 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 41 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| AL House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| DE House At-large | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 14 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KY House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 26 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OK Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| LA House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| AL House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 46 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| ND House At-large | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 49 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 16 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MS House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| ID Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 52 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| AL House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| LA House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 10 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 50 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 51 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MO House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KY House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WV House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| RI Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OR Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MS House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KY House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| UT House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WV Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| HI House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MO House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MS House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| RI House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MO House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| SC House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| SC House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| ME House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| UT House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MA House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WV House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WY Senate | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MO House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded September 20, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| ID House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| HI House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 24 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 32 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OK House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 28 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 13 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WY House At-large | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| AL House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KY House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 18 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 20 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 29 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 19 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| VT House At-large | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 33 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 10 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 29 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MO House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 19 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 14 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 44 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OK House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OR House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 17 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 36 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 30 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 9 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| IN House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 13 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| KY House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MA House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OR House 3 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| AL House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe R · more than 19 in 20chance for Republicans | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| NC House 12 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 30 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| LA House 2 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 15 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 16 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 43 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 6 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 34 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 18 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| OH House 11 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 8 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| TX House 37 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MO House 1 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 37 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MA House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 11 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| CA House 12 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| GA House 5 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| MD House 4 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
| WA House 7 | Cook Political ReportAdded August 25, 2026 | Thin Gold modelRun of Oct 18 Safe D · more than 19 in 20chance for Democrats | Range around our number: not yet published | No usable poll. The district baseline alone |
Model probabilities, not predictions: the margin of error is wide this far from Election Day.
208 more races not yet confirmed.
The dashed bar is a placeholder with a real width: it is drawn from the race’s own signal tier, so a race with a usable poll draws a narrower bar than one without, and no row pretends to a precision it does not have. Per race ranges stay dashed until the calibration review reports. Cook Political Report ratings are used by permission, and every row that shows one cites it in full, dated and linked.
Fig. 6 · The argument for the number, stated by us first
The argument for the number, stated by us first
Why two models instead of one better model?
Because blending them would hide the only thing worth knowing: how much the forecast depends on ratings and polls. The main model reads both. The fundamentals model reads neither, only district lean, the generic ballot and incumbency. We print the gap between them and never compute a blend.
Why round numbers instead of decimals?
A model this young cannot tell a 58 percent chance from a 61 percent one, so we say about 3 in 5 and mean it. The race table does the same: every row says something like Lean R, about 3 in 5, and never a percent. A decimal on a probability would be a claim about our own accuracy that we have not earned.
What are we still holding back?
The endpoints of every per race range and the governor forecast. The ranges wait for a reliability test over past election cycles, and the governor forecast did not pass its own test. Both chambers’ 80 percent seat ranges are published, and untested. We also hold back the gap between the two models whenever the comparison run is more than 14 days older than the main run, because part of that gap would be the age of one run.
The full method, the inputs we reject and why, and the record of every correction: read the forecast methodology.