2026 Congressional Forecast
One model, run nightly. It reads the race ratings, the polling, and each state’s partisan baseline, then simulates the whole map tens of thousands of times. The numbers below are the share of those simulations each party wins. Read it as odds, not a prediction.
Who controls the next Congress?
Democrats are favored to take Congress.
Republican control is very unlikely; Democratic control somewhat favored.
R both 19% · D both 58% · split 23%
These are probabilities, not predictions, and the margin of error is wide this far from Election Day. Polls are right on average but miss in any single race.
Senate
- 80% range (R seats)
- 40–55
- R majority odds
- 23%
House
- 80% range (R seats)
- 72–273
- R majority odds
- 39%
What each signal says on its own
The model fuses three independent signals. Here is where each one lands by itself, before fusion. When they disagree, the spread is the uncertainty.
What if the national mood shifts?
These pin the national environment to a fixed shock and re-run the seats. Pick a scenario to see how the chambers respond.