2026 Congressional forecast
Democrats are slightly favored to take Congress.
Republican control of Congress is unlikely (about 1 in 4).
One model, run nightly. It reads the race ratings, the polling, and each state’s partisan baseline, then simulates the whole map tens of thousands of times. The numbers below are the share of those simulations each party wins. Read it as odds, not a prediction.
These are probabilities, not predictions, and the margin of error is wide this far from Election Day. Polls are right on average but miss in any single race.
- D both 49%
- Split 23%
- R both 28%
Democrats control both chambers 49%, split control 23%, Republicans control both chambers 28%.
Seat distributions
Lean D · 38% R majority odds
80% range (R seats): 46–54
Democratic majority Republican majority
Toss-up · 43% R majority odds
Seat range withheld
An eighty percent range is a claim about how often the true answer lands inside it, and we have never measured how often ours does. It stays withheld until the model is tested against past cycles it has not seen. The majority odds above are not gated by that test, but they are not calibrated by it either.
Why we withhold this →Moving toward Democrats R control of Congress -2 pts. Senate R odds +1 pts, median no change. Over 1
day.
By signal
What each signal says on its own
The model fuses three independent signals. Here is where each one lands by itself, before fusion. When they disagree, the spread is the uncertainty.
Senate
Ratings only
50R median
38% R majority
35 races
Polls only
38R median
<1% R majority†
18 races
Partisan baseline only
52R median
67% R majority
35 races
Polls only covers the 18 of 35 Senate races with polling the model can still use. The other 17 have no public polling, or none inside the age cutoff, or none carrying a date we can read, so they sit out this single-signal view and its majority odds read low. Do not read them on their own.
House
Ratings only
215R median
42% R majority
435 races
Polls only
6R median
<1% R majority†
39 races
Partisan baseline only
215R median
45% R majority
435 races
Polls only covers the 39 of 435 House races with polling the model can still use. The other 396 have no public polling, or none inside the age cutoff, or none carrying a date we can read, so they sit out this single-signal view and its majority odds read low. Do not read them on their own.
Scenarios
What if the national mood shifts?
These pin the national environment to a fixed shock and re-run the seats. Pick a scenario to see how the chambers respond.
Senate 48D · 52R 68% R majority
House 209D · 226R 71% R majority
Race by race
The model’s odds for every modeled race. Read them as odds, not calls. The most competitive races are listed first.
Updated September 2, 2026
Showing 67 competitive races of 470.
Chamber
Rating
| Lean | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | House 25 | Toss-up | N/A | D 50% |
| PA | House 8 | Toss-up | N/A | D 51% |
| TX | House 34 | Toss-up | N/A | R 52% |
| OH | House 9 | Toss-up | N/A | R 52% |
| TX | Senate | Toss-up | Yes | D 53% |
| WI | House 3 | Toss-up | N/A | D 53% |
| MI | House 10 | Toss-up | N/A | D 55% |
| OH | Senate | Toss-up | Yes | D 56% |
| FL | House 22 | Toss-up | Yes | R 56% |
| PA | House 10 | Toss-up | N/A | D 57% |
| IA | House 3 | Toss-up | N/A | D 59% |
| NC | House 11 | Toss-up | N/A | R 60% |
| TX | House 28 | Lean D | N/A | D 60% |
| PA | House 7 | Lean D | N/A | D 61% |
| AZ | House 1 | Lean D | N/A | D 61% |
| PA | House 1 | Lean R | N/A | R 61% |
| AK | Senate | Lean D | Yes | D 61% |
| IA | House 1 | Lean D | Yes | D 61% |
| VA | House 1 | Lean R | N/A | R 61% |
| FL | House 14 | Lean R | N/A | R 62% |
| MI | House 4 | Lean R | N/A | R 62% |
| NE | House 2 | Lean D | Yes | D 63% |
| CO | House 8 | Lean D | N/A | D 63% |
| NC | House 1 | Lean R | N/A | R 63% |
| MI | Senate | Lean D | Yes | D 64% |
| NJ | House 7 | Lean D | N/A | D 64% |
| AZ | House 6 | Lean D | N/A | D 65% |
| VA | House 2 | Lean D | N/A | D 66% |
| MI | House 7 | Lean D | Yes | D 66% |
| OH | House 7 | Lean D | Yes | D 66% |
| WA | House 3 | Lean D | N/A | D 66% |
| NY | House 17 | Lean D | N/A | D 67% |
| CA | House 22 | Lean D | N/A | D 69% |
| CO | House 3 | Lean R | Yes | R 69% |
| IA | House 2 | Lean R | N/A | R 70% |
| NY | House 3 | Lean D | N/A | D 71% |
| IA | Senate | Lean R | Yes | R 72% |
| TX | House 15 | Lean R | N/A | R 73% |
| OH | House 1 | Lean D | N/A | D 74% |
| ME | House 2 | Lean R | Yes | R 74% |
| NM | House 2 | Lean D | N/A | D 75% |
| NY | House 2 | Likely R | Yes | R 76% |
| NV | House 3 | Likely D | N/A | D 76% |
| ME | Senate | Likely D | Yes | D 78% |
| WI | House 1 | Likely R | N/A | R 78% |
| CA | House 13 | Likely D | N/A | D 78% |
| TX | House 35 | Likely R | N/A | R 78% |
| FL | House 27 | Likely R | Yes | R 79% |
| NC | Senate | Likely D | Yes | D 80% |
| OH | House 10 | Likely R | Yes | R 81% |
| CA | House 48 | Likely D | N/A | D 82% |
| NY | House 4 | Likely D | Yes | D 85% |
| MT | House 1 | Likely R | N/A | R 87% |
| MN | House 1 | Likely R | N/A | R 87% |
| AR | House 2 | Likely R | Yes | R 87% |
| FL | House 12 | Likely R | Yes | R 88% |
| NH | House 1 | Likely D | N/A | D 88% |
| SC | House 1 | Likely R | N/A | R 88% |
| AK | House At-large | Likely R | N/A | R 88% |
| FL | House 13 | Likely R | N/A | R 88% |
| AL | House 2 | Likely R | N/A | R 89% |
| KS | Senate | Likely R | Yes | R 89% |
| TX | House 23 | Likely R | N/A | R 90% |
| CA | House 45 | Likely D | N/A | D 90% |
| AZ | House 2 | Likely R | N/A | R 90% |
| CO | House 5 | Likely R | Yes | R 90% |
| KY | House 6 | Likely R | N/A | R 90% |
| GA | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D 90% |
| FL | House 9 | Safe R | Yes | R 91% |
| NJ | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D 91% |
| OH | House 15 | Safe R | N/A | R 92% |
| NY | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R 92% |
| OH | House 5 | Safe R | Yes | R 92% |
| FL | House 7 | Safe R | Yes | R 92% |
| IN | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D 93% |
| SC | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R 93% |
| FL | House 11 | Safe R | Yes | R 93% |
| VA | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 93% |
| NY | House 19 | Safe D | N/A | D 93% |
| NV | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D 94% |
| NV | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D 94% |
| MI | House 8 | Safe D | Yes | D 94% |
| FL | House 16 | Safe R | N/A | R 94% |
| VA | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D 94% |
| FL | House 26 | Safe R | Yes | R 94% |
| NE | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R 95% |
| NH | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D 95% |
| MI | House 5 | Safe R | Yes | R 95% |
| MN | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D 95% |
| FL | House 15 | Safe R | Yes | R 95% |
| MN | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D 96% |
| CA | House 21 | Safe D | N/A | D 96% |
| OH | House 8 | Safe R | Yes | R 96% |
| CA | House 40 | Safe R | N/A | R 96% |
| MI | House 1 | Safe R | Yes | R 96% |
| CO | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R 96% |
| FL | House 19 | Safe R | Yes | R 96% |
| OH | House 13 | Safe D | Yes | D 97% |
| FL | House 6 | Safe R | Yes | R 97% |
| AR | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R 97% |
| WA | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| MO | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| GA | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D 98% |
| FL | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| NJ | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| NJ | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NE | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| SC | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NV | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| GA | House 12 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| MN | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| CA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| OR | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| CA | House 23 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL-S | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| MN | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| PA | House 4 | Safe D | Yes | D 99% |
| MO | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| GA | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TN | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 24 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| WI | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 21 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| OH | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| AZ | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 13 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| WI | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| CA | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| IN | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| GA | House 10 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| MD | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 18 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 38 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NY | House 23 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| OH | House 4 | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| MO | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 27 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| PA | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| OK | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 10 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 32 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 17 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| MO | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 31 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| LA | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| GA | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 17 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| WI | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NH | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NY | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NJ | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 16 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KS | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| GA | House 14 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| NY | House 21 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| TX | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AZ | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 24 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KS | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| GA | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WA | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SC | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 22 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CT | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 26 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 35 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 12 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 25 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OK | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MI | House 6 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| TX | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NJ | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 21 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 22 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NJ | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TN | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AR | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WI | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 36 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 10 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| PA | House 16 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SC | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 39 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 27 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 33 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 18 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 47 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| SC | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IN | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TN | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KS | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MO | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| ID | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MA | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MS | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 17 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| FL | House 28 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OR | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 14 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NM | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OR | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 17 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CT | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 25 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OR | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 31 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 38 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AZ | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| RI | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NM | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| UT | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AL | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 42 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MS | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SD | House At-large | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MI | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IN | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| VA | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MT | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NJ | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NM | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| FL | House 23 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IN | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| LA | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MI | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OH | House 12 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CT | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NJ | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 20 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 41 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| FL | House 10 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| DE | House At-large | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CO | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AZ | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MT | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| IN | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KS | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 26 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IA | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SD | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| PA | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| MI | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 46 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 20 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MI | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 49 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 16 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| UT | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IN | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| KY | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OK | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| PA | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CO | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 52 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AL | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| AL | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TN | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| LA | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WA | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| LA | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 50 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 51 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 25 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AL | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OH | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NJ | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| KY | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 26 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| KY | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| RI | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TN | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MA | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CO | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IN | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| LA | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AL | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OR | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| DE | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MS | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MN | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| ND | House At-large | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MS | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| FL | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MN | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| ID | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| HI | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| PA | House 15 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AZ | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| RI | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| LA | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SC | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CT | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CT | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| ME | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WV | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| UT | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 15 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MD | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AR | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NJ | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OH | House 3 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NJ | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 4 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| OK | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| CA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| HI | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 24 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 32 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 28 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| KY | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| UT | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WV | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OH | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MA | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MS | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MO | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SC | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 12 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| VA | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WV | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 18 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 20 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WY | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| PA | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| ID | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AR | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MA | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| OK | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| PA | House 13 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 13 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WY | House At-large | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 29 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 4 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| AL | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KY | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 14 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VT | House At-large | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 33 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 16 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 29 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 19 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 14 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 44 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 19 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MN | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| FL | House 20 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NE | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OR | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MO | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MI | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| FL | House 24 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 17 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 36 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OK | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AZ | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CO | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 30 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WI | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MI | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IN | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TN | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OR | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 30 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| LA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| KY | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 15 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 16 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 15 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 43 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AL | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 34 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NJ | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WI | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 18 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OH | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CO | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 37 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MO | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 37 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MN | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
Model probabilities, not predictions: the margin of error is wide this far from Election Day.
Methodology summary
What the model uses
Published race ratings, age-weighted public polling, each state’s partisan baseline, and the national political environment.
What the model cannot see
Candidate scandals, late-breaking events, turnout shifts, or anything that happens after the ratings and polls it reads were published.
Run record
Latest completed run: September 2, 2026. Runs nightly, 10,000 simulations per run.