2026 Congressional forecast
Democrats are slightly favored to take Congress.
Republican control of Congress is unlikely (about 1 in 4).
One model, run nightly. It reads the race ratings, the polling, and each state’s partisan baseline, then simulates the whole map tens of thousands of times. The numbers below are the share of those simulations each party wins. Read it as odds, not a prediction.
These are probabilities, not predictions, and the margin of error is wide this far from Election Day. Polls are right on average but miss in any single race.
- D both 58%
- Split 19%
- R both 22%
Democrats control both chambers 58%, split control 19%, Republicans control both chambers 22%.
Seat distributions
Lean D · 30% R majority odds
80% range (R seats): 42–56
Democratic majority Republican majority
Lean D · 33% R majority odds
Seat-range interval under calibration review. A too-steep national-mood-to-seats elasticity made the raw House range historically implausible, so it stays withheld until the recalibration is reviewed. The median, the directional verdict, and the majority odds above are sound. Read more about the calibration review →
Holding steady R control of Congress 0 pts. Senate R odds -1 pts, median no change. Over 1
day.
By signal
What each signal says on its own
The model fuses three independent signals. Here is where each one lands by itself, before fusion. When they disagree, the spread is the uncertainty.
Senate
Ratings only
50R median
48% R majority
35 races
Polls only
37R median
<1% R majority†
29 races
Partisan baseline only
51R median
53% R majority
35 races
Polls only covers the 29 of 35 Senate races with public polling. The other 6 sit out this single-signal view, so its majority odds read low and should not be read on their own.
House
Ratings only
207R median
39% R majority
435 races
Polls only
13R median
<1% R majority†
115 races
Partisan baseline only
209R median
48% R majority
434 races
Polls only covers the 115 of 435 House races with public polling. The other 320 sit out this single-signal view, so its majority odds read low and should not be read on their own.
Scenarios
What if the national mood shifts?
These pin the national environment to a fixed shock and re-run the seats. Pick a scenario to see how the chambers respond.
Senate 48D · 52R 53% R majority
House 217D · 218R 53% R majority
Race by race
The model’s odds for every modeled race. Read them as odds, not calls. The most competitive races are listed first.
Updated July 19, 2026
Showing 99 competitive races of 470.
Chamber
Rating
| Lean | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | House 24 | Toss-up | Yes | D 50% |
| WI | House 1 | Toss-up | Yes | R 50% |
| IA | House 2 | Toss-up | N/A | R 52% |
| OH | House 7 | Toss-up | Yes | D 52% |
| AZ | House 1 | Toss-up | N/A | R 52% |
| GA | House 4 | Toss-up | N/A | D 55% |
| MI | House 9 | Toss-up | Yes | D 55% |
| TX | House 23 | Toss-up | Yes | D 55% |
| FL | House 2 | Toss-up | Yes | R 55% |
| ME | House 2 | Toss-up | Yes | R 56% |
| FL | House 13 | Toss-up | Yes | R 56% |
| NC | House 11 | Toss-up | Yes | D 56% |
| VA | House 2 | Toss-up | N/A | D 56% |
| IA | House 1 | Toss-up | N/A | D 57% |
| NY | House 17 | Toss-up | N/A | D 57% |
| CA | House 3 | Toss-up | N/A | R 58% |
| CO | House 4 | Toss-up | Yes | R 58% |
| MO | House 2 | Toss-up | Yes | R 58% |
| OH | House 10 | Toss-up | N/A | R 59% |
| TX | House 16 | Toss-up | Yes | D 59% |
| TN | House 9 | Toss-up | N/A | D 59% |
| SC | Senate | Toss-up | Yes | D 59% |
| SD | Senate | Lean D | Yes | D 61% |
| AZ | House 4 | Lean D | N/A | D 62% |
| CA | House 14 | Lean D | N/A | D 63% |
| MT | House 1 | Lean R | Yes | R 63% |
| FL | House 1 | Lean D | Yes | D 63% |
| FL | House 25 | Lean D | N/A | D 64% |
| OH | House 15 | Lean D | Yes | D 64% |
| IA | House 3 | Lean R | Yes | R 65% |
| FL | House 9 | Lean D | Yes | D 65% |
| FL | House 5 | Lean D | Yes | D 65% |
| SC | House 7 | Lean R | Yes | R 65% |
| KS | House 1 | Lean R | Yes | R 66% |
| NC | House 1 | Lean D | N/A | D 66% |
| CA | House 2 | Lean R | N/A | R 67% |
| AK | House At-large | Lean R | Yes | R 68% |
| CO | House 5 | Lean D | Yes | D 68% |
| TX | House 29 | Lean D | N/A | D 69% |
| OR | House 6 | Lean D | Yes | D 69% |
| NC | House 8 | Lean D | Yes | D 70% |
| AL | House 6 | Lean D | Yes | D 71% |
| AZ | House 6 | Lean R | Yes | R 71% |
| TX | House 28 | Lean D | Yes | D 71% |
| FL | House 24 | Lean D | Yes | D 72% |
| IA | Senate | Lean D | Yes | D 72% |
| CO | House 8 | Lean D | N/A | D 72% |
| MN | House 6 | Lean R | Yes | R 73% |
| MN | House 7 | Lean D | Yes | D 73% |
| NY | House 23 | Lean R | N/A | R 73% |
| AZ | House 9 | Lean D | N/A | D 74% |
| NV | House 3 | Likely D | N/A | D 76% |
| FL | House 11 | Likely D | Yes | D 76% |
| FL-S | Senate | Likely D | Yes | D 76% |
| FL | House 15 | Likely R | Yes | R 77% |
| OH | House 1 | Likely D | Yes | D 77% |
| MI | House 2 | Likely R | Yes | R 77% |
| MI | House 1 | Likely R | Yes | R 78% |
| NC | House 13 | Likely R | N/A | R 79% |
| OH | House 12 | Likely R | Yes | R 79% |
| WI | House 6 | Likely R | N/A | R 79% |
| CO | House 3 | Likely R | Yes | R 79% |
| NC | Senate | Likely D | Yes | D 79% |
| PA | House 10 | Likely R | N/A | R 80% |
| TX | House 34 | Likely D | N/A | D 80% |
| TX | House 7 | Likely R | N/A | R 80% |
| OH | Senate | Likely R | Yes | R 80% |
| VA | House 1 | Likely R | N/A | R 80% |
| NJ | House 9 | Likely D | N/A | D 81% |
| OH | House 9 | Likely R | Yes | R 82% |
| IN | House 1 | Likely D | N/A | D 82% |
| TX | House 15 | Likely R | Yes | R 82% |
| KY | House 3 | Likely R | Yes | R 82% |
| PA | House 17 | Likely D | N/A | D 82% |
| WA | House 5 | Likely D | N/A | D 82% |
| WI | House 5 | Likely R | N/A | R 82% |
| NY | House 3 | Likely D | N/A | D 83% |
| NC | House 14 | Likely R | Yes | R 84% |
| CA | House 25 | Likely D | N/A | D 84% |
| MT | Senate | Likely D | Yes | D 85% |
| MI | House 8 | Likely D | Yes | D 85% |
| NJ | House 7 | Likely D | N/A | D 86% |
| OH | House 5 | Likely R | Yes | R 87% |
| CA | House 40 | Likely R | N/A | R 87% |
| MI | House 5 | Likely R | N/A | R 88% |
| FL | House 12 | Likely R | Yes | R 88% |
| NV | House 4 | Likely D | N/A | D 88% |
| PA | House 12 | Likely D | N/A | D 88% |
| AK | Senate | Likely R | Yes | R 88% |
| NY | House 1 | Likely D | N/A | D 89% |
| VA | House 5 | Likely R | N/A | R 89% |
| TX | House 6 | Likely R | Yes | R 89% |
| IN | House 8 | Likely R | N/A | R 89% |
| MI | House 3 | Likely D | Yes | D 89% |
| MI | House 7 | Likely D | Yes | D 89% |
| FL | House 7 | Likely D | Yes | D 89% |
| VA | House 6 | Likely R | N/A | R 89% |
| TX | House 32 | Likely R | N/A | R 90% |
| PA | House 1 | Likely R | N/A | R 90% |
| MI | House 11 | Safe D | Yes | D 90% |
| SC | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 90% |
| ID | House 1 | Safe R | Yes | R 91% |
| MI | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D 91% |
| RI | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D 91% |
| KS | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R 91% |
| MS | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D 91% |
| FL | House 6 | Safe R | Yes | R 92% |
| NC | House 10 | Safe R | Yes | R 92% |
| PA | House 8 | Safe D | Yes | D 92% |
| PA | House 7 | Safe D | Yes | D 92% |
| NY | House 24 | Safe R | N/A | R 92% |
| ME | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D 92% |
| CA | House 22 | Safe D | N/A | D 93% |
| NV | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D 93% |
| IN | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R 93% |
| WI | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R 93% |
| TX | House 13 | Safe D | Yes | D 93% |
| CA | House 45 | Safe D | N/A | D 93% |
| AL | House 3 | Safe R | Yes | R 93% |
| TX | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R 94% |
| MI | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D 94% |
| IL | House 12 | Safe R | N/A | R 94% |
| CA | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D 94% |
| SC | House 1 | Safe D | Yes | D 94% |
| FL | House 21 | Safe R | Yes | R 95% |
| NY | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R 95% |
| OH | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R 95% |
| AL | House 5 | Safe R | Yes | R 96% |
| OH | House 8 | Safe R | Yes | R 96% |
| GA | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R 96% |
| NY | House 19 | Safe D | Yes | D 96% |
| PA | House 16 | Safe R | N/A | R 96% |
| CA | House 27 | Safe D | N/A | D 96% |
| AZ | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R 97% |
| WA | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R 97% |
| NM | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D 97% |
| MD | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D 97% |
| TX | House 27 | Safe R | Yes | R 97% |
| CA | House 35 | Safe D | N/A | D 97% |
| FL | House 10 | Safe D | Yes | D 97% |
| PA | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R 97% |
| OH | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D 97% |
| TX | House 26 | Safe R | Yes | R 97% |
| TX | House 36 | Safe R | Yes | R 97% |
| IN | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R 97% |
| CA | House 23 | Safe D | N/A | D 97% |
| MO | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D 97% |
| CA | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D 98% |
| TX | House 35 | Safe D | N/A | D 98% |
| GA | House 12 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| AL | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R 98% |
| OR | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D 98% |
| UT | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| NY | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| ME | House 1 | Safe D | Yes | D 98% |
| OR | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| GA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D 98% |
| SC | House 3 | Safe D | Yes | D 98% |
| TX | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R 98% |
| FL | House 4 | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| MN | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| MN | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| IL | House 14 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| NY | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| VA | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| NJ | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| OH | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| GA | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| FL | House 26 | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| FL | House 19 | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| GA | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D 99% |
| CA | House 49 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| NH | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D 99% |
| PA | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| AZ | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| NC | House 6 | Safe D | Yes | D 99% |
| FL | House 28 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| KY | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| TX | House 12 | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| VA | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| NV | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R 99% |
| TX | House 17 | Safe R | Yes | R 99% |
| MI | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D 99% |
| UT | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 17 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MN | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AZ | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 21 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 20 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 47 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| FL | House 22 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TN | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| FL | House 18 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| MS | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 15 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AL | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| GA | House 6 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| CA | House 26 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 9 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| MD | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| VA | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 38 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AR | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IN | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AZ | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| SC | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MO | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AL | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 25 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| IA | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NC | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OH | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 3 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| KS | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WI | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OH | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WI | House 8 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| GA | House 3 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| FL | House 16 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NE | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 31 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| GA | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CO | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NH | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 10 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 22 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NY | House 16 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MI | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 18 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MN | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| AR | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| MS | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OH | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 16 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| KY | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| PA | House 13 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NJ | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| DE | House At-large | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 15 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AZ | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 22 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NE | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| MS | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| FL | House 17 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 16 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MO | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| LA | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 19 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 21 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| ND | House At-large | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SC | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OK | House 2 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| NJ | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IN | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 10 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CT | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| LA | House 4 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| NC | House 4 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| TN | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| GA | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| FL | House 20 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| WA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| LA | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 39 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NM | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| FL | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| FL | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 52 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| MO | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NJ | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 48 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NJ | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| LA | House 6 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NJ | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| FL | House 14 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| LA | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| MA | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 21 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| UT | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| VA | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 31 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OR | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 8 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| CA | House 19 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| LA | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NC | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OK | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| KY | House 5 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OK | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| GA | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 37 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| WA | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| KY | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IN | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KY | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CT | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NJ | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MI | House 10 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NJ | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CO | House 6 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| CT | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AL | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AR | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MS | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 30 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| WI | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IN | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KS | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MO | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MI | House 13 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| WV | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AR | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MT | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CT | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TN | House 8 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MN | House 3 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| IL | House 10 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 42 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 43 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MN | House 4 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| KS | Senate | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| ID | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| SC | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 6 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 29 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 36 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CT | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 50 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 14 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| KY | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| NE | House 3 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TN | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| OR | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NJ | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NC | House 12 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| OK | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NJ | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NM | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CO | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NY | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OR | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| SD | House At-large | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CO | House 1 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| FL | House 27 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 25 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MO | House 7 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 38 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OR | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 17 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| RI | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 12 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 10 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| TX | House 20 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WY | House At-large | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WY | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 51 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 33 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 1 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| CA | House 20 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| OK | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| HI | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| ID | House 2 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| OH | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| AL | House 4 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| AR | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| TX | House 11 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| UT | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| DE | Senate | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 6 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NH | House 1 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| CO | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| WV | House 2 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 32 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| FL | House 23 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VT | House At-large | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| RI | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| TN | House 1 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| CA | House 30 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 46 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| HI | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 14 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| PA | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 28 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| TX | House 18 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 44 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| IL | House 3 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| GA | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IN | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MO | House 1 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 9 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| IL | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| PA | House 15 | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| WV | Senate | Safe R | N/A | R >99% |
| MN | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 26 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NE | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NJ | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 33 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| LA | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 24 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| CA | House 41 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| GA | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 11 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| OK | House 5 | Safe R | Yes | R >99% |
| CA | House 18 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 37 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 2 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MD | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| VA | House 8 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WI | House 4 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| CA | House 34 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 2 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| MA | House 5 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| MA | House 7 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| MA | House 9 | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| MD | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NM | Senate | Safe D | Yes | D >99% |
| NY | House 13 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| NY | House 15 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 7 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
| WA | House 9 | Safe D | N/A | D >99% |
Model probabilities, not predictions: the margin of error is wide this far from Election Day.
Methodology summary
What the model uses
Published race ratings, age-weighted public polling, each state’s partisan baseline, and the national political environment.
What the model cannot see
Candidate scandals, late-breaking events, turnout shifts, or anything that happens after the ratings and polls it reads were published.
Run record
Latest completed run: July 19, 2026. Runs nightly, 10,000 simulations per run.