House 2026

Of 435 House districts, fewer than 50 will be genuinely competitive in 2026. The others are Solid R or Solid D — uncompetitive under any plausible national environment. Chambers flip not because Solid races change hands but because a small number of competitive races break in the same direction.

Thin Gold's approach to the House is to track the competitive set, surface the structural forces affecting each district (cost of living, local-industry concentration, redistricting effects), and watch what moves *into* and *out of* the competitive band over the cycle. The generic ballot is the leading national indicator; per-district fundraising and incumbent retirements are the local ones.