Louisiana
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | |
| Split Ticket | Safe R | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely R |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Candidates
We do not carry Louisiana's certified primary result.
Louisiana Secretary of State publishes the certified primary result on its official results page and its candidate page.
Louisiana's election site asks automated programs to stay out, and we respect that.
Louisiana held its primary on May 16, 2026.
What we know
- Per Wikipedia, Jamie Davis won the Democratic primary.
- Per Wikipedia, Julia Letlow won the Republican primary.
No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.
Louisiana's 2026 U.S. Senate race draws a sharp picture of resource imbalance. As of the most recent FEC filing, the Republican side reported $27.6 million in total cycle receipts and $6.3 million in cash on hand, while Democrats reported $2.5 million in total receipts and $750,000 in cash on hand. That gap of roughly four-to-one in available funds shapes what is operationally possible for each party down the stretch. The ratings reflect the terrain. Cook Political Report rates the race "Solid R" (Added 2026-08-25); cookpolitical.com has the most current ratings and analysis. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Safe R" (Added 2026-08-11). Both raters place the race outside competitive range. Polling through September 19, 2026 showed Republicans leading by 4 points (R+4), a margin that, given the fundraising disparity, Democrats have limited capacity to close. The publication's populist-alignment assessment for this race is high, meaning the structural questions around economic concentration and regulatory accountability that animate our coverage are live in Louisiana. The current ratings and fundraising picture leave little expectation of a competitive finish, but the gap between a polling margin of R+4 and ratings of Solid or Safe R is a data point worth watching as filing deadlines pass.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $2.5M
- Cash on hand
- $750.1K
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $27.6M
- Spent
- $32.4M
- Cash on hand
- $6.3M
- Small-dollar share of individual contributions (derived)
- 6%
- PAC / committee contributions
- $3M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Sep 30, 2026.
State demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $60,756 (±$408)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,064 (±$8)
- People below the poverty line
- 18.9% (±0.3%)
- People without health insurance
- 7.8% (±0.2%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 54.8% (±0.9%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , statewide; the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 4, 2026, per the federal form; this date falls on a Sunday and your state may move it, so confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.