The battlefield, fifty states at once
469 races tracked across 50 states this cycle. Every tile below is a real link to that state's full delegation.
22 states carry a race rated Toss-Up or Lean, 28 states are rated and settled, 0 states carry no rating at all.
States carrying a Toss-Up or Lean race
22of 50The contested ground this cycle. Every code links to that state's full delegation.
States no rater covers
0of 50No rated race on record for these states this cycle.
How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence
Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.
- Toss-Up, band across the top
- Lean D, band
- Likely D, band
- Solid D, band
- Likely R, band
- Solid R, band
Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , current as of September 2, 2026. Tile position is schematic, not geographic. An unrated state carries no partisan color: a rating is a claim about a specific race, never a derived guess.
Fig. 1
The contested-money rail
The 6 states scoring highest on contest weight, ranked and ties broken exactly as the block below states.
#1 · 16 races
OhioOhio Senate
Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted
14 contest-weight points from 3 Toss-Up, 1 Lean and 3 Likely races put Ohio at rank 1 of this cycle's rail.
3 Toss-Up · 1 Lean · 3 Likely · 9 Solid · 0 unrated · state total $101.1M
#2 · 39 races
TexasTexas Senate
James Talarico vs Runoff May 26: Cornyn vs Paxton
12 contest-weight points from 2 Toss-Up, 2 Lean and 2 Likely races put Texas at rank 2 of this cycle's rail.
2 Toss-Up · 2 Lean · 2 Likely · 33 Solid · 0 unrated · state total $256.5M
#3 · 28 races
FloridaFlorida 14th District
12 contest-weight points from 2 Toss-Up, 1 Lean and 4 Likely races put Florida at rank 3 of this cycle's rail.
2 Toss-Up · 1 Lean · 4 Likely · 21 Solid · 0 unrated · state total $153.3M
#4 · 14 races
MichiganMichigan Senate
Primary Aug 4: McMorrow, El-Sayed, Stevens vs Mike Rogers
12 contest-weight points from 3 Toss-Up, 1 Lean and 1 Likely races put Michigan at rank 4 of this cycle's rail.
3 Toss-Up · 1 Lean · 1 Likely · 9 Solid · 0 unrated · state total $112.4M
#5 · 5 races
IowaIowa Senate
Primary June 2: Wahls, Turek vs Ashley Hinson
11 contest-weight points from 3 Toss-Up, 1 Lean and 0 Likely races put Iowa at rank 5 of this cycle's rail.
3 Toss-Up · 1 Lean · 0 Likely · 1 Solid · 0 unrated · state total $55.1M
#6 · 17 races
PennsylvaniaPennsylvania 7th District
10 contest-weight points from 3 Toss-Up, 0 Lean and 1 Likely races put Pennsylvania at rank 6 of this cycle's rail.
3 Toss-Up · 0 Lean · 1 Likely · 13 Solid · 0 unrated · state total $71.0M
How this rail is built
The disclosed method
Recompute it: 3 points per Toss-Up, 2 per Lean (Tilt counts as Lean), 1 per Likely, ties on total tracked receipts. Ranking as of September 2, 2026.
The ranking rule
Contest weight: 3 points per race rated Toss-Up, 2 per Lean (Tilt scores as Lean), 1 per Likely. Solid, Safe and unrated races score zero.
States are ranked by total weight; ties break on total tracked receipts, highest first.
Where the fold cuts
California sits just below the rail at rank 7, weight 9, $194.0M tracked receipts.
11 races rated Toss-Up sit in a state outside this rail.
What the money bar means
The bar is a share of one race's own total, never a length compared across cards. Two races with the same split render the same bar even if their totals differ by 10x; the printed dollar totals carry the scale.
What counts as a contest
Toss-Up, Lean and Likely races score. Solid, Safe and unrated races do not: a state can carry many races and still score zero if none of them are competitive by rating.
Every other state
The lattice above and the rail together do not exhaust the board. Every remaining state is here, exactly once.
Rated states outside the rail Open the list · 44 states
These states carry a rated race that did not score into the top 6 by contest weight. Most are Solid or Safe calls, decided but still on the ballot.