Iowa 1st District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely D |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: Iowa Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 19, 2026
No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.
Iowa's 1st congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+6.82, which makes the current ratings striking: Cook Political Report classifies the race as "Lean D" (Added October 10, 2026), and Sabato's Crystal Ball and Split Ticket and FiftyPlusOne have reached similar conclusions, with Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it "Lean D" as of September 22, FiftyPlusOne rating it "Likely D" as of September 24, and Split Ticket rating it "Likely D" as of September 24. Polling from July 16, 2026 showed Democrats leading by D+5, a margin that, set against that baseline, points to meaningful Republican weakness in the district this cycle. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com. A district that leans Republican by nearly seven points running competitive. and potentially leaning the other direction. reflects something beyond ordinary midterm swings. The raters have reached a durable enough conclusion that all four classification systems surveyed place this race on the Democratic side of the ledger, with two calling it "Likely D" rather than merely leaning. Whether that reflects local economic conditions, district-specific dynamics, or broader national headwinds, the numbers say Iowa's 1st is not behaving according to its baseline this year.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $7.8M
- Cash on hand
- $5.4M
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $7.3M
- Cash on hand
- $4.7M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
District demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $73,680 (±$909)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $966 (±$9)
- People below the poverty line
- 12.0% (±0.4%)
- People without health insurance
- 4.7% (±0.2%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 47.8% (±1.6%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 19, 2026, per the federal form; confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.