The Oregon Senate race is the state's headline race, rated Solid D by Cook Political Report.
Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.
All 6 Oregon House seats carry a rating.
Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 6 districts. Open a district for every rater and date.
Oregon races rated Toss-Up
0of 7No Oregon race is a Toss-Up this cycle.
Oregon races no rater covers
0of 7Every Oregon race carries a rating this cycle.
How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence
Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.
- Solid D, band
- Solid R, band
Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of September 22, 2026.
Fig. 2
Oregon at a glance
1 of 8 Oregon seats is rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean.
8 seats on the 2026 ballot: 1 Senate, the governor, 6 House seats. Ratings added October 12, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).
- Favor D 7
- Toss-Up 0
- Favor R 1
- Not rated 0
In play: 1 leaning D.
Lean against the nation
In 2024 this state voted 15.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Measured: FEC 2024 presidential results, difference from the national margin.
Of 6 House districts with a baseline, 5 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 1 more Republican.
House delegation, projected
Our model expects Democrats to win about 5 of 6 House seats here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.
The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.
Every Oregon race our displayed rating calls close
Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.
No Oregon race has a displayed rating of Toss-Up or Lean this cycle.
Oregon, district by district
Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.
- State
- Date
- Source
- Rights
- Key
Cook Political Report rating
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
State of each Cook Political Report rating
- Unproven
Cook Political Report rates 6 of 6 House seats in Oregon and calls 0 of them a Toss-up. 6 seats are drawn on the map.
Data table: every House race in Oregon (6)
| District | Cook Political Report | Lines on the map |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon District 1 OR-01 | Solid D | Census district lines |
| Oregon District 2 OR-02 | Solid R | Census district lines |
| Oregon District 3 OR-03 | Solid D | Census district lines |
| Oregon District 4 OR-04 | Solid D | Census district lines |
| Oregon District 5 OR-05 | Solid D | Census district lines |
| Oregon District 6 OR-06 | Solid D | Census district lines |
Counties, by the numbers
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024
Oregon: five economic indicators, county by county
Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.
Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to $60,936
- $60,936 to $65,661
- $65,661 to $73,999
- $73,999 to $85,118
- $85,118 to $107,772
- Not yet available (0 of 36)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 36 counties with a value in Oregon. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 10.8%
- 10.8% to 12.7%
- 12.7% to 13.7%
- 13.7% to 15.9%
- 15.9% to 22.0%
- Not yet available (0 of 36)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 36 counties with a value in Oregon. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024
- up to 6.0%
- 6.0% to 6.9%
- 6.9% to 7.5%
- 7.5% to 8.4%
- 8.4% to 10.7%
- Not yet available (0 of 36)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 36 counties with a value in Oregon. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 42.2%
- 42.2% to 49.1%
- 49.1% to 51.2%
- 51.2% to 53.7%
- 53.7% to 62.6%
- Not yet available (0 of 36)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 36 counties with a value in Oregon. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024
- Not yet available (36 of 36)
No county in Oregon has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.
Oregon has 36 counties. 36 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.
Baker County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $60,936
- Poverty rate
- 14.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Benton County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $77,702
- Poverty rate
- 18.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 62.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Clackamas County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $103,517
- Poverty rate
- 7.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Clatsop County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $71,822
- Poverty rate
- 12.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Columbia County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $87,458
- Poverty rate
- 8.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Coos County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $62,143
- Poverty rate
- 16.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Crook County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $81,965
- Poverty rate
- 11.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Curry County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $62,244
- Poverty rate
- 15.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Deschutes County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $92,758
- Poverty rate
- 8.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Douglas County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $61,310
- Poverty rate
- 16.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Gilliam County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $66,917
- Poverty rate
- 15.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 37.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Grant County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $59,450
- Poverty rate
- 12.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 38.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Harney County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $55,208
- Poverty rate
- 13.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Hood River County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $88,947
- Poverty rate
- 8.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Jackson County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $73,999
- Poverty rate
- 12.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Jefferson County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $76,260
- Poverty rate
- 13.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Josephine County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $60,098
- Poverty rate
- 15.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 55.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Klamath County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $58,830
- Poverty rate
- 18.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lake County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $62,787
- Poverty rate
- 14.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lane County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $71,544
- Poverty rate
- 15.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lincoln County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $63,165
- Poverty rate
- 15.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Linn County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $76,329
- Poverty rate
- 13.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Malheur County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $54,519
- Poverty rate
- 17.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 38.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Marion County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $77,351
- Poverty rate
- 13.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Morrow County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $75,448
- Poverty rate
- 13.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 34.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Multnomah County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $88,766
- Poverty rate
- 12.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Polk County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $85,118
- Poverty rate
- 12.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sherman County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $60,161
- Poverty rate
- 22.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 38.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Tillamook County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $69,105
- Poverty rate
- 12.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Umatilla County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $67,728
- Poverty rate
- 11.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Union County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $65,661
- Poverty rate
- 16.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wallowa County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $67,112
- Poverty rate
- 7.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 44.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wasco County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $64,175
- Poverty rate
- 11.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Washington County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $107,772
- Poverty rate
- 8.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wheeler County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $55,284
- Poverty rate
- 10.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Yamhill County, Oregon
Close- Median household income
- $90,063
- Poverty rate
- 10.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 55.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
About these indicators
What each measure is and where it comes from. A county card shows only the county's own figures; this applies to all of them.
- Median household income
- Median household income in the past 12 months, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013).
- Poverty rate
- Share of people whose income is below the federal poverty threshold. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701).
- Uninsured, under 65
- Model-based share of people under 65 without health insurance, all incomes. SAHIE, 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- Share of renter households spending 30 percent or more of income on gross rent. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04).
- Per-capita personal income
- Total personal income divided by the county population, before taxes. BEA CAINC1, 2024. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1).
Data table: every county, every indicator (36 counties)
| County | Household income | Poverty | Uninsured under 65 | Rent burden | Per-capita income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker | $60,936 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 42.2% | Not yet available |
| Benton | $77,702 | 18.2% | 5.9% | 62.6% | Not yet available |
| Clackamas | $103,517 | 7.7% | 5.1% | 53.3% | Not yet available |
| Clatsop | $71,822 | 12.3% | 7.5% | 50.7% | Not yet available |
| Columbia | $87,458 | 8.9% | 5.8% | 53.7% | Not yet available |
| Coos | $62,143 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 51.9% | Not yet available |
| Crook | $81,965 | 11.3% | 5.6% | 56.6% | Not yet available |
| Curry | $62,244 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 48.2% | Not yet available |
| Deschutes | $92,758 | 8.8% | 5.9% | 50.1% | Not yet available |
| Douglas | $61,310 | 16.3% | 6.8% | 51.2% | Not yet available |
| Gilliam | $66,917 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 37.7% | Not yet available |
| Grant | $59,450 | 12.8% | 7.2% | 38.0% | Not yet available |
| Harney | $55,208 | 13.7% | 7.3% | 40.4% | Not yet available |
| Hood River | $88,947 | 8.0% | 10.6% | 49.3% | Not yet available |
| Jackson | $73,999 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 56.0% | Not yet available |
| Jefferson | $76,260 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 43.8% | Not yet available |
| Josephine | $60,098 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 55.9% | Not yet available |
| Klamath | $58,830 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 54.9% | Not yet available |
| Lake | $62,787 | 14.9% | 8.6% | 50.7% | Not yet available |
| Lane | $71,544 | 15.3% | 6.9% | 54.9% | Not yet available |
| Lincoln | $63,165 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 50.9% | Not yet available |
| Linn | $76,329 | 13.0% | 6.9% | 53.3% | Not yet available |
| Malheur | $54,519 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 38.4% | Not yet available |
| Marion | $77,351 | 13.0% | 9.1% | 53.5% | Not yet available |
| Morrow | $75,448 | 13.2% | 10.7% | 34.6% | Not yet available |
| Multnomah | $88,766 | 12.6% | 6.1% | 53.0% | Not yet available |
| Polk | $85,118 | 12.7% | 6.0% | 51.8% | Not yet available |
| Sherman | $60,161 | 22.0% | 5.9% | 38.3% | Not yet available |
| Tillamook | $69,105 | 12.7% | 8.4% | 42.8% | Not yet available |
| Umatilla | $67,728 | 11.8% | 8.5% | 43.9% | Not yet available |
| Union | $65,661 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 41.6% | Not yet available |
| Wallowa | $67,112 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 44.6% | Not yet available |
| Wasco | $64,175 | 11.6% | 8.8% | 46.3% | Not yet available |
| Washington | $107,772 | 8.1% | 5.5% | 49.3% | Not yet available |
| Wheeler | $55,284 | 10.8% | 8.1% | 49.1% | Not yet available |
| Yamhill | $90,063 | 10.3% | 7.3% | 55.9% | Not yet available |
What the delegation says
What Oregon is worth
Oregon's stake in House control
0of 20No Oregon House race is rated Toss-Up or Lean this cycle. 20 seats elsewhere carry that rating; Oregon's House delegation is settled ground.
Competitive = rated Toss-Up or Lean by the crediting rater · as of October 18, 2026
U.S. Senate in Oregon
Every rater we carry, with its own date. Candidates, incumbent, poll and forecast sit under each rating.
U.S. Senate
Oregon Senate
- Candidates
-
- D Jeff Merkley
- R David Brock Smith
- Incumbent
- Jeff Merkley (as of October 8, 2026)
- Latest poll
- No poll on file.
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.5M / $131.3K
Governor of Oregon
Ratings, candidates and incumbent where we hold them; every gap is marked with its reason.
Governor
Oregon Governor
- Candidates
-
- D Tina Kotek
- R Christine Drazan
- Incumbent
- Incumbent not yet confirmed.
- Latest poll
- A poll reading is on file, but its source document is not verifiable, so it is withheld.
- Our forecast
- No win probability. Our governor forecast has not yet passed its accuracy test against past elections.
U.S. House seats in Oregon
Every district, in district order (6).
For all 6 districts: no poll on file.
U.S. House
Oregon 1st District
- Candidates
-
- D Suzanne Bonamici
- R Barbara J Kahl
- Incumbent
- Suzanne Bonamici (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $847.4K / $4.5K
U.S. House
Oregon 2nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Chris Beck
- R Cliff Bentz
- Incumbent
- Cliff Bentz (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $219.9K / $1M
U.S. House
Oregon 3rd District
- Candidates
-
- D Maxine E Dexter
- R Loran Ayles
- Incumbent
- Maxine Dexter (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1M / n/a
U.S. House
Oregon 4th District
- Candidates
-
- D Val Hoyle
- R Monique DeSpain
- Incumbent
- Val T. Hoyle (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.3M / $677.6K
U.S. House
Oregon 5th District
- Candidates
-
- D Janelle S Bynum
- R Patti Adair
- Incumbent
- Janelle S. Bynum (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $3.8M / $439.1K
U.S. House
Oregon 6th District
- Candidates
-
- D Andrea Salinas
- R David Russ
- Incumbent
- Andrea Salinas (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.6M / $12.8K
Oregon governor, 2026
Oregon Governor race · Incumbent: Tina Kotek Source: National Governors Association (not an official state record)
The Oregon legislature
Thin Gold does not yet cover state legislative races. Coverage is a separate, later track.
-
Upper chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
-
Lower chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
How to vote in Oregon
- Register to vote in Oregon (vote.gov)
- Polling places and election dates · Oregon’s official election page
Registration deadlines, ID rules, and early-voting dates vary by state and by election. Thin Gold does not track these facts directly; the links above go straight to the authorities that do. Link set checked August 13, 2026.