HOUSE RACE
Texas 32nd District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | |
| Split Ticket | Likely R | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely R |
Thin Gold model
Safe R · more than 19 in 20 chance for Republicans
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →On the November ballot
Dan Barrios
Democrat
vs
Jace Yarbrough
Republican
Roster: Texas Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 28, 2026
No verified public poll. How we source polling data.
Unproven: Analysis held for checking never verified This text is held until it passes a current check of its candidate, officeholder and party claims against sourced records. How the claim check works
Campaign finance · FEC
Dan Barrios
- Raised
- $153.4K
- Cash on hand
- $6K
Campaign finance · FEC
Jace Yarbrough
- Raised
- $7.7M
- Cash on hand
- $416.7K
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jul 29, 2026.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 4, 2026, per the federal form; this date falls on a Sunday and your state may move it, so confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- Not shown. The state's election website blocks automated readers, and we do not work around that, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- District demographics are not shown: the Census figures we hold describe the 2024 district lines, which changed for 2026.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
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