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HOUSE RACE

Mississippi 4th District

See all four ratings

Where this race stands

Published ratings for Mississippi 4th District, one row per rater
Rater Rating Added
Cook Political Report Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater.
Split Ticket Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater.
FiftyPlusOne Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater.
Thin Gold model Safe R · more than 19 in 20 chance for Republicans

Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

See the full forecast →
On the November ballot
Jeffrey Hulum III Democrat
vs
Mike Ezell Republican

Roster: Mississippi Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of September 9, 2026

No verified public poll. How we source polling data.

Unproven: Analysis held for checking never verified This text is held until it passes a current check of its candidate, officeholder and party claims against sourced records. How the claim check works

Campaign finance · FEC

Jeffrey Hulum III
Raised
$29K
Cash on hand
$6.5K

Campaign finance · FEC

Mike Ezell
Raised
$1M
Cash on hand
$128.5K

Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jul 22, 2026.

District demographics · Census ACS

Median household income
$60,376 (±$937)
Median gross rent, monthly
$1,037 (±$17)
People below the poverty line
16.7% (±0.6%)
People without health insurance
12.1% (±0.4%)
Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
49.9% (±2.0%)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.

Election information

Voter registration deadline
October 4, 2026, per the federal form; this date falls on a Sunday and your state may move it, so confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
Early voting
Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.

What is not on this page

  • Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
  • No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
  • The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
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