North Carolina 11th District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Tossup | |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Tossup |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: North Carolina State Board of Elections · state candidate list · as of October 18, 2026
No verified public poll. How we source polling data.
North Carolina's 11th congressional district, rated Toss-Up by Cook Political Report (Added October 12, 2026), sits against a partisan baseline of R+7.85, making the competitive ratings from both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball notable. Democrats are fielding Jamie Ager; Republicans are fielding Jennifer Capps Balkcom. The gap between that baseline and a Toss-Up classification signals that local or structural factors are driving the race beyond what the district's broader partisan character alone would predict. Split Ticket's "Lean D" rating as of September 24, 2026, and FiftyPlusOne's "Tossup" as of September 1, 2026, add further weight to the view that Ager is performing above the district's baseline lean. With the baseline at R+7.85 and multiple raters placing the race in genuine contention, North Carolina's 11th stands as one of the more striking mismatches between a district's underlying partisan gravity and current competitive assessments. : https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential : https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $3.5M
- Cash on hand
- $2.2M
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $487.2K
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
District demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $65,577 (±$1,121)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,107 (±$19)
- People below the poverty line
- 12.6% (±0.5%)
- People without health insurance
- 11.9% (±0.5%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 48.6% (±2.2%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 9, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- October 15 to October 31, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.