North Carolina 1st District is the state's headline race: rated Toss-Up by Cook Political Report.
Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.
All 14 North Carolina House seats carry a rating.
Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 14 districts. Open a district for every rater and date.
North Carolina races rated Toss-Up
2of 15North Carolina 1st District, North Carolina 11th District. These are the only races in North Carolina that either rater declines to call for a party.
North Carolina races no rater covers
0of 15Every North Carolina race carries a rating this cycle.
How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence
Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.
- Toss-Up, band across the top
- Likely D, band
- Solid D, band
- Solid R, band
Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of September 30, 2026.
Fig. 2
North Carolina at a glance
2 of 15 North Carolina seats are rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean.
15 seats on the 2026 ballot: 1 Senate, 14 House seats. Ratings added October 12, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).
- Favor D 4
- Toss-Up 2
- Favor R 9
- Not rated 0
In play: 2 Toss-Up.
Lean against the nation
In 2024 this state voted 1.7 points more Republican than the nation. Measured: FEC 2024 presidential results, difference from the national margin.
Of 14 House districts with a baseline, 3 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 11 more Republican.
House delegation, projected
Our model expects Democrats to win about 4 of 14 House seats here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.
The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.
Every North Carolina race our displayed rating calls close
Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.
#1 · U.S. House
North Carolina 1st DistrictNorth Carolina · U.S. House
Roster: North Carolina State Board of Elections · state candidate list · as of October 18, 2026
Toss-Up, one of 2 North Carolina races our displayed rating calls close this cycle.
#2 · U.S. House
North Carolina 11th DistrictNorth Carolina · U.S. House
Roster: North Carolina State Board of Elections · state candidate list · as of October 18, 2026
Toss-Up, one of 2 North Carolina races our displayed rating calls close this cycle.
North Carolina, district by district
Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.
- State
- Date
- Source
- Rights
- Key
Cook Political Report rating
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
State of each Cook Political Report rating
- Unproven
Cook Political Report rates 14 of 14 House seats in North Carolina and calls 2 of them a Toss-up. 14 seats are drawn on the map.
Data table: every House race in North Carolina (14)
| District | Cook Political Report | Lines on the map |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina District 1 NC-01 | Toss-Up | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 2 NC-02 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 3 NC-03 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 4 NC-04 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 5 NC-05 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 6 NC-06 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 7 NC-07 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 8 NC-08 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 9 NC-09 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 10 NC-10 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 11 NC-11 | Toss-Up | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 12 NC-12 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 13 NC-13 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| North Carolina District 14 NC-14 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
Counties, by the numbers
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024
North Carolina: five economic indicators, county by county
Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.
Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to $51,410
- $51,410 to $58,188
- $58,188 to $64,172
- $64,172 to $72,322
- $72,322 to $105,768
- Not yet available (0 of 100)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 100 counties with a value in North Carolina. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 11.0%
- 11.0% to 13.2%
- 13.2% to 16.0%
- 16.0% to 19.8%
- 19.8% to 27.2%
- Not yet available (0 of 100)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 100 counties with a value in North Carolina. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024
- up to 9.6%
- 9.6% to 10.5%
- 10.5% to 11.2%
- 11.2% to 12.3%
- 12.3% to 16.5%
- Not yet available (0 of 100)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 100 counties with a value in North Carolina. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 41.5%
- 41.5% to 46.3%
- 46.3% to 48.5%
- 48.5% to 51.3%
- 51.3% to 65.9%
- Not yet available (0 of 100)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 100 counties with a value in North Carolina. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024
- Not yet available (100 of 100)
No county in North Carolina has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.
North Carolina has 100 counties. 100 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.
Alamance County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $65,651
- Poverty rate
- 13.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Alexander County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $65,354
- Poverty rate
- 12.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Alleghany County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $47,172
- Poverty rate
- 16.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 16.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Anson County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $47,302
- Poverty rate
- 21.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Ashe County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $56,866
- Poverty rate
- 13.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Avery County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $61,428
- Poverty rate
- 10.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Beaufort County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $58,357
- Poverty rate
- 17.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bertie County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $48,750
- Poverty rate
- 16.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bladen County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $42,422
- Poverty rate
- 22.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Brunswick County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $77,024
- Poverty rate
- 9.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Buncombe County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $74,436
- Poverty rate
- 11.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Burke County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $58,592
- Poverty rate
- 15.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 36.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Cabarrus County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $89,005
- Poverty rate
- 9.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Caldwell County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $56,425
- Poverty rate
- 13.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Camden County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $91,078
- Poverty rate
- 6.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 27.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Carteret County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $72,322
- Poverty rate
- 10.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Caswell County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $59,755
- Poverty rate
- 18.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Catawba County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $67,864
- Poverty rate
- 12.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Chatham County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $94,317
- Poverty rate
- 11.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Cherokee County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $53,628
- Poverty rate
- 12.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Chowan County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $53,864
- Poverty rate
- 19.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Clay County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $56,971
- Poverty rate
- 12.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Cleveland County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $58,534
- Poverty rate
- 16.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Columbus County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $49,442
- Poverty rate
- 18.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Craven County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $65,873
- Poverty rate
- 13.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Cumberland County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $61,291
- Poverty rate
- 16.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Currituck County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $93,511
- Poverty rate
- 7.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Dare County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $88,994
- Poverty rate
- 6.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Davidson County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $64,172
- Poverty rate
- 12.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Davie County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $75,057
- Poverty rate
- 9.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Duplin County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $55,148
- Poverty rate
- 20.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 16.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Durham County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $82,316
- Poverty rate
- 11.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Edgecombe County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $51,265
- Poverty rate
- 21.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Forsyth County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $67,165
- Poverty rate
- 14.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Franklin County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $74,240
- Poverty rate
- 11.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Gaston County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $67,478
- Poverty rate
- 13.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Gates County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $66,333
- Poverty rate
- 9.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 25.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Graham County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $49,684
- Poverty rate
- 6.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Granville County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $71,111
- Poverty rate
- 15.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 44.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Greene County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $53,244
- Poverty rate
- 21.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 16.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Guilford County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $68,642
- Poverty rate
- 14.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 52.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Halifax County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $45,590
- Poverty rate
- 22.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Harnett County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $71,287
- Poverty rate
- 13.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Haywood County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $61,912
- Poverty rate
- 13.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Henderson County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $68,187
- Poverty rate
- 11.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Hertford County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $45,537
- Poverty rate
- 22.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 63.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Hoke County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $64,912
- Poverty rate
- 17.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Hyde County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $53,713
- Poverty rate
- 22.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 62.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Iredell County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $81,419
- Poverty rate
- 10.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Jackson County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $55,815
- Poverty rate
- 18.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Johnston County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $83,384
- Poverty rate
- 10.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Jones County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $59,641
- Poverty rate
- 18.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lee County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $65,387
- Poverty rate
- 16.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lenoir County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $45,143
- Poverty rate
- 22.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lincoln County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $80,016
- Poverty rate
- 11.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Macon County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $59,061
- Poverty rate
- 11.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 38.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Madison County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $58,531
- Poverty rate
- 12.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Martin County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $48,578
- Poverty rate
- 20.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
McDowell County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $57,168
- Poverty rate
- 14.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Mecklenburg County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $87,005
- Poverty rate
- 10.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Mitchell County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $57,602
- Poverty rate
- 12.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Montgomery County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $57,766
- Poverty rate
- 15.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 37.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Moore County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $86,080
- Poverty rate
- 10.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Nash County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $62,426
- Poverty rate
- 11.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
New Hanover County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $75,166
- Poverty rate
- 12.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Northampton County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $50,086
- Poverty rate
- 21.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Onslow County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $68,148
- Poverty rate
- 11.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Orange County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $90,089
- Poverty rate
- 12.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 58.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Pamlico County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $59,717
- Poverty rate
- 15.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Pasquotank County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $66,589
- Poverty rate
- 11.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Pender County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $80,396
- Poverty rate
- 9.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Perquimans County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $67,917
- Poverty rate
- 9.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Person County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $63,300
- Poverty rate
- 17.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 60.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Pitt County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $58,188
- Poverty rate
- 19.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Polk County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $67,758
- Poverty rate
- 14.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 52.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Randolph County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $61,022
- Poverty rate
- 14.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Richmond County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $44,883
- Poverty rate
- 25.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Robeson County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $41,978
- Poverty rate
- 27.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Rockingham County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $57,053
- Poverty rate
- 16.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Rowan County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $65,725
- Poverty rate
- 16.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Rutherford County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $51,410
- Poverty rate
- 16.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sampson County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $52,432
- Poverty rate
- 21.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Scotland County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $45,730
- Poverty rate
- 25.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Stanly County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $60,704
- Poverty rate
- 15.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Stokes County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $62,969
- Poverty rate
- 11.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Surry County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $55,656
- Poverty rate
- 16.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Swain County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $52,349
- Poverty rate
- 19.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 38.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Transylvania County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $66,184
- Poverty rate
- 13.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Tyrrell County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $41,685
- Poverty rate
- 18.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 52.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Union County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $102,900
- Poverty rate
- 7.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Vance County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $50,465
- Poverty rate
- 19.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wake County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $105,768
- Poverty rate
- 8.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Warren County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $50,638
- Poverty rate
- 21.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Washington County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $41,813
- Poverty rate
- 24.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Watauga County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $51,693
- Poverty rate
- 25.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 65.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wayne County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $59,733
- Poverty rate
- 17.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wilkes County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $51,721
- Poverty rate
- 16.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wilson County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $56,423
- Poverty rate
- 19.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Yadkin County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $62,932
- Poverty rate
- 14.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Yancey County, North Carolina
Close- Median household income
- $58,709
- Poverty rate
- 15.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
About these indicators
What each measure is and where it comes from. A county card shows only the county's own figures; this applies to all of them.
- Median household income
- Median household income in the past 12 months, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013).
- Poverty rate
- Share of people whose income is below the federal poverty threshold. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701).
- Uninsured, under 65
- Model-based share of people under 65 without health insurance, all incomes. SAHIE, 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- Share of renter households spending 30 percent or more of income on gross rent. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04).
- Per-capita personal income
- Total personal income divided by the county population, before taxes. BEA CAINC1, 2024. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1).
Data table: every county, every indicator (100 counties)
| County | Household income | Poverty | Uninsured under 65 | Rent burden | Per-capita income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alamance | $65,651 | 13.4% | 11.8% | 46.7% | Not yet available |
| Alexander | $65,354 | 12.6% | 10.2% | 39.5% | Not yet available |
| Alleghany | $47,172 | 16.0% | 16.0% | 40.1% | Not yet available |
| Anson | $47,302 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 39.6% | Not yet available |
| Ashe | $56,866 | 13.5% | 12.9% | 41.4% | Not yet available |
| Avery | $61,428 | 10.2% | 14.1% | 40.6% | Not yet available |
| Beaufort | $58,357 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 51.0% | Not yet available |
| Bertie | $48,750 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 45.1% | Not yet available |
| Bladen | $42,422 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 51.3% | Not yet available |
| Brunswick | $77,024 | 9.2% | 9.0% | 51.8% | Not yet available |
| Buncombe | $74,436 | 11.8% | 11.7% | 53.9% | Not yet available |
| Burke | $58,592 | 15.6% | 12.1% | 36.9% | Not yet available |
| Cabarrus | $89,005 | 9.3% | 9.0% | 50.0% | Not yet available |
| Caldwell | $56,425 | 13.4% | 11.6% | 39.8% | Not yet available |
| Camden | $91,078 | 6.1% | 7.8% | 27.5% | Not yet available |
| Carteret | $72,322 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 57.0% | Not yet available |
| Caswell | $59,755 | 18.6% | 12.3% | 41.7% | Not yet available |
| Catawba | $67,864 | 12.7% | 11.8% | 41.0% | Not yet available |
| Chatham | $94,317 | 11.0% | 11.2% | 48.0% | Not yet available |
| Cherokee | $53,628 | 12.4% | 10.6% | 43.4% | Not yet available |
| Chowan | $53,864 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 54.5% | Not yet available |
| Clay | $56,971 | 12.9% | 11.4% | 40.5% | Not yet available |
| Cleveland | $58,534 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 49.5% | Not yet available |
| Columbus | $49,442 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 49.8% | Not yet available |
| Craven | $65,873 | 13.7% | 9.2% | 46.3% | Not yet available |
| Cumberland | $61,291 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 51.9% | Not yet available |
| Currituck | $93,511 | 7.5% | 8.1% | 48.1% | Not yet available |
| Dare | $88,994 | 6.6% | 9.0% | 48.0% | Not yet available |
| Davidson | $64,172 | 12.8% | 10.3% | 42.1% | Not yet available |
| Davie | $75,057 | 9.4% | 9.4% | 45.3% | Not yet available |
| Duplin | $55,148 | 20.5% | 16.4% | 41.8% | Not yet available |
| Durham | $82,316 | 11.5% | 10.1% | 48.4% | Not yet available |
| Edgecombe | $51,265 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 48.4% | Not yet available |
| Forsyth | $67,165 | 14.5% | 11.0% | 49.1% | Not yet available |
| Franklin | $74,240 | 11.1% | 11.2% | 54.6% | Not yet available |
| Gaston | $67,478 | 13.5% | 11.1% | 50.6% | Not yet available |
| Gates | $66,333 | 9.4% | 8.2% | 25.7% | Not yet available |
| Graham | $49,684 | 6.7% | 12.4% | 48.5% | Not yet available |
| Granville | $71,111 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 44.2% | Not yet available |
| Greene | $53,244 | 21.0% | 16.5% | 41.5% | Not yet available |
| Guilford | $68,642 | 14.6% | 10.1% | 52.0% | Not yet available |
| Halifax | $45,590 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 49.4% | Not yet available |
| Harnett | $71,287 | 13.7% | 9.9% | 45.1% | Not yet available |
| Haywood | $61,912 | 13.1% | 9.9% | 51.6% | Not yet available |
| Henderson | $68,187 | 11.6% | 12.3% | 47.7% | Not yet available |
| Hertford | $45,537 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 63.3% | Not yet available |
| Hoke | $64,912 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 50.2% | Not yet available |
| Hyde | $53,713 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 62.5% | Not yet available |
| Iredell | $81,419 | 10.0% | 9.2% | 43.6% | Not yet available |
| Jackson | $55,815 | 18.0% | 13.6% | 42.2% | Not yet available |
| Johnston | $83,384 | 10.6% | 10.5% | 48.2% | Not yet available |
| Jones | $59,641 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 40.3% | Not yet available |
| Lee | $65,387 | 16.5% | 13.5% | 43.8% | Not yet available |
| Lenoir | $45,143 | 22.0% | 12.4% | 46.4% | Not yet available |
| Lincoln | $80,016 | 11.2% | 8.9% | 41.7% | Not yet available |
| Macon | $59,061 | 11.6% | 14.6% | 38.1% | Not yet available |
| Madison | $58,531 | 12.1% | 10.2% | 40.9% | Not yet available |
| Martin | $48,578 | 20.4% | 10.9% | 41.6% | Not yet available |
| McDowell | $57,168 | 14.8% | 12.0% | 39.7% | Not yet available |
| Mecklenburg | $87,005 | 10.4% | 11.2% | 49.4% | Not yet available |
| Mitchell | $57,602 | 12.9% | 9.6% | 40.8% | Not yet available |
| Montgomery | $57,766 | 15.4% | 14.4% | 37.7% | Not yet available |
| Moore | $86,080 | 10.1% | 9.0% | 48.8% | Not yet available |
| Nash | $62,426 | 11.8% | 11.2% | 40.6% | Not yet available |
| New Hanover | $75,166 | 12.3% | 8.9% | 54.9% | Not yet available |
| Northampton | $50,086 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 50.7% | Not yet available |
| Onslow | $68,148 | 11.6% | 8.1% | 50.8% | Not yet available |
| Orange | $90,089 | 12.5% | 8.1% | 58.1% | Not yet available |
| Pamlico | $59,717 | 15.2% | 10.5% | 47.9% | Not yet available |
| Pasquotank | $66,589 | 11.0% | 9.8% | 50.1% | Not yet available |
| Pender | $80,396 | 9.7% | 10.3% | 50.2% | Not yet available |
| Perquimans | $67,917 | 9.8% | 10.4% | 45.7% | Not yet available |
| Person | $63,300 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 60.4% | Not yet available |
| Pitt | $58,188 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 50.6% | Not yet available |
| Polk | $67,758 | 14.0% | 12.2% | 52.1% | Not yet available |
| Randolph | $61,022 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 43.8% | Not yet available |
| Richmond | $44,883 | 25.2% | 10.6% | 51.3% | Not yet available |
| Robeson | $41,978 | 27.2% | 13.4% | 48.2% | Not yet available |
| Rockingham | $57,053 | 16.3% | 10.9% | 50.9% | Not yet available |
| Rowan | $65,725 | 16.0% | 11.2% | 46.7% | Not yet available |
| Rutherford | $51,410 | 16.8% | 12.6% | 46.8% | Not yet available |
| Sampson | $52,432 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 46.8% | Not yet available |
| Scotland | $45,730 | 25.8% | 9.7% | 51.9% | Not yet available |
| Stanly | $60,704 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 48.9% | Not yet available |
| Stokes | $62,969 | 11.2% | 8.9% | 46.1% | Not yet available |
| Surry | $55,656 | 16.8% | 13.0% | 43.3% | Not yet available |
| Swain | $52,349 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 38.2% | Not yet available |
| Transylvania | $66,184 | 13.2% | 10.1% | 47.8% | Not yet available |
| Tyrrell | $41,685 | 18.7% | 13.8% | 52.2% | Not yet available |
| Union | $102,900 | 7.7% | 9.0% | 43.2% | Not yet available |
| Vance | $50,465 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 56.9% | Not yet available |
| Wake | $105,768 | 8.1% | 7.2% | 48.2% | Not yet available |
| Warren | $50,638 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 53.4% | Not yet available |
| Washington | $41,813 | 24.1% | 10.6% | 49.5% | Not yet available |
| Watauga | $51,693 | 25.5% | 10.8% | 65.9% | Not yet available |
| Wayne | $59,733 | 17.3% | 12.5% | 47.3% | Not yet available |
| Wilkes | $51,721 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 43.0% | Not yet available |
| Wilson | $56,423 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 46.7% | Not yet available |
| Yadkin | $62,932 | 14.0% | 11.7% | 50.4% | Not yet available |
| Yancey | $58,709 | 15.2% | 11.8% | 47.5% | Not yet available |
What the delegation says
What North Carolina is worth
North Carolina's stake in House control
2of 202 of the 20 seats that decide House control this cycle sit in North Carolina's delegation. The rest of the delegation is settled ground.
Competitive = rated Toss-Up or Lean by the crediting rater · as of October 18, 2026
Rating and model, side by side
- North Carolina 1st District Thin Gold model Toss-up · about 1 in 2 chance for Democrats
Our model and the Cook Political Report rating agree on this race.
- North Carolina 11th District Thin Gold model Toss-up · about 3 in 5 chance for Democrats
Our model and the Cook Political Report rating agree on this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
U.S. Senate in North Carolina
Every rater we carry, with its own date. Candidates, incumbent, poll and forecast sit under each rating.
U.S. Senate
North Carolina Senate
- Candidates
-
- D Roy Cooper
- R Michael Whatley
- Incumbent
- Thom Tillis (as of October 8, 2026)
- Latest poll
- A poll reading is on file, but its source document is not verifiable, so it is withheld.
- Our forecast
- about 9 in 10 · Likely D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $35.6M / $16.2M
Governor of North Carolina
Ratings, candidates and incumbent where we hold them; every gap is marked with its reason.
Our inventory carries no governor race for North Carolina this cycle. That may mean none is on the ballot, or that our coverage has a gap; we cannot yet tell the two apart.
U.S. House seats in North Carolina
Every district, in district order (14).
For all 14 districts: no poll on file.
U.S. House
North Carolina 1st District
- Candidates
-
- D Don Davis
- R Laurie Buckhout
- Incumbent
- Donald G. Davis (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 1 in 2 · Toss-up
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.3M / $8.3M
U.S. House
North Carolina 2nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Deborah K. Ross
- R Eugene F. Douglass
- Incumbent
- Deborah K. Ross (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.7M / n/a
U.S. House
North Carolina 3rd District
- Candidates
-
- D Raymond Smith
- R Greg Murphy
- Incumbent
- Gregory F. Murphy (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $551K / $2.4M
U.S. House
North Carolina 4th District
- Candidates
-
- D Valerie P. Foushee
- R Mahesh (Max) Ganorkar
- Incumbent
- Valerie P. Foushee (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2M / $11.9K
U.S. House
North Carolina 5th District
- Candidates
-
- D Chuck Hubbard
- R Virginia Foxx
- Incumbent
- Virginia Foxx (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $402.1K / $1.7M
U.S. House
North Carolina 6th District
- Candidates
-
- D Cyril Jefferson
- R Addison McDowell
- Incumbent
- Addison P. McDowell (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $294.1K / $1.2M
U.S. House
North Carolina 7th District
- Candidates
-
- D Kimberly Hardy
- R David Rouzer
- Incumbent
- David Rouzer (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $293.8K / $2M
U.S. House
North Carolina 8th District
- Candidates
-
- D Colby Watson
- R Mark Harris
- Incumbent
- Mark Harris (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $353.7K / $2M
U.S. House
North Carolina 9th District
- Candidates
-
- D Richard N. Ojeda II
- R Richard Hudson
- Incumbent
- Richard Hudson (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.2M / $3.2M
U.S. House
North Carolina 10th District
- Candidates
-
- D Ashley Bell
- R Pat Harrigan
- Incumbent
- Pat Harrigan (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $164.6K / $1.1M
U.S. House
North Carolina 11th District
- Candidates
-
- D Jamie Ager
- R Jennifer Capps Balkcom
- Incumbent
- Chuck Edwards (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 3 in 5 · Toss-up
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $3.5M / $1M
U.S. House
North Carolina 12th District
- Candidates
-
- D Alma S. Adams
- R Jack Codiga
- Incumbent
- Alma S. Adams (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $433.4K / $46.5K
U.S. House
North Carolina 13th District
- Candidates
-
- D Paul Barringer
- R Brad Knott
- Incumbent
- Brad Knott (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1M / $1.3M
U.S. House
North Carolina 14th District
- Candidates
-
- D Lakesha Womack
- R Tim Moore
- Incumbent
- Tim Moore (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $103K / $1.6M
The North Carolina legislature
Thin Gold does not yet cover state legislative races. Coverage is a separate, later track.
-
Upper chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
-
Lower chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
How to vote in North Carolina
- Register to vote in North Carolina (vote.gov)
- Polling places and election dates · North Carolina’s official election page
Registration deadlines, ID rules, and early-voting dates vary by state and by election. Thin Gold does not track these facts directly; the links above go straight to the authorities that do. Link set checked August 13, 2026.