North Carolina 9th District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | |
| Split Ticket | Likely R | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely R |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: North Carolina State Board of Elections · state candidate list · as of October 18, 2026
No verified public poll. How we source polling data.
North Carolina's 9th congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+14.19, and every rater tracking the race places it firmly out of competitive range. Cook Political Report rates it Solid R (Added 2026-08-25); cookpolitical.com carries the most current ratings and analysis. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe R (Added 2026-08-11), Split Ticket rates it Likely R (Added 2026-09-25), and FiftyPlusOne rates it Likely R (Added 2026-09-01). Richard Hudson faces Richard N. Ojeda II in a district where that baseline leaves little structural room for a competitive general contest. The four raters converge on the same conclusion from different methodologies, which narrows the analytic uncertainty considerably. For a publication tracking democratic accountability and concentrated economic power, a non-competitive rating does not make a race invisible. It does, however, shift the relevant accountability pressure to the raters themselves: when four independent forecasters agree on a label, the question worth watching is whether any late movement in turnout, fundraising, or late-breaking polling closes or widens the gap relative to that R+14.19 figure. : https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential : https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $202.2K
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $3.2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
District demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $67,665 (±$1,071)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,140 (±$14)
- People below the poverty line
- 13.6% (±0.5%)
- People without health insurance
- 10.0% (±0.4%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 49.1% (±1.7%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 9, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- October 15 to October 31, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.