North Carolina 1st District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Tossup | |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean D |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: North Carolina State Board of Elections · state candidate list · as of October 18, 2026
No verified public poll. How we source polling data.
North Carolina's 1st congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+9.9, yet Cook Political Report rated the race Toss-Up as of October 9, 2026. That gap between structural lean and competitive rating is the clearest signal of how contested this district has become since it was redrawn for the 2026 cycle. Don Davis runs on the Democratic side; Laurie Buckhout on the Republican side. With Cook Political Report placing the race in its Toss-Up column, outside money and organizing resources from both parties are likely to concentrate here through November.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $4.3M
- Cash on hand
- $3.6M
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $8.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jul 15, 2026.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 9, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- October 15 to October 31, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- District demographics are not shown: the Census figures we hold describe the 2024 district lines, which changed for 2026.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.