Same inequality, new century. We're keeping score.

We’re bringing Thin Gold back online in phases. Some sections are still being checked and will return as each one is ready; our goal is to be fully back before the November 3 midterms.

← Back to Race Tracker All North Carolina races →
HOUSE RACE

North Carolina 3rd District

Raters differ by degree: Likely R to Solid R. All four

Where this race stands

Published ratings for North Carolina 3rd District, one row per rater
Rater Rating Added
Cook Political Report Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R
Split Ticket Safe R
FiftyPlusOne Likely R
Thin Gold model Safe R · about 19 in 20 chance for Republicans

Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

See the full forecast →
On the November ballot
Raymond Smith Democrat
vs
Greg Murphy Republican
Daniel Cavender Libertarian

Roster: North Carolina State Board of Elections · state candidate list · as of October 18, 2026

No verified public poll. How we source polling data.

North Carolina's 3rd congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+11.98 into the 2026 cycle, a margin that has drawn consistent agreement from the raters with access to this race. Cook Political Report rates the district Solid R (Added August 25, 2026). The district was redrawn for the 2026 cycle, so the baseline reflects updated geography rather than any prior map. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com. Raymond Smith runs for Democrats; Greg Murphy runs for Republicans. The rating gap between the two available assessments, Cook Political Report's Solid R and the underlying baseline, suggests the district is not a live target under current conditions.

Campaign finance · FEC

Raymond Smith
Raised
$551K
Cash on hand
$73.7K

Campaign finance · FEC

Greg Murphy
Raised
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$2.7M

Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.

Election information

Voter registration deadline
October 9, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)
Early voting
October 15 to October 31, 2026 (North Carolina State Board of Elections, as of October 10, 2026)

What is not on this page

  • Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
  • No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
  • District demographics are not shown: the Census figures we hold describe the 2024 district lines, which changed for 2026.
  • The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
Read Full House Analysis → · back soon