California 22nd District is the state's headline race: rated Toss-Up by Cook Political Report.
Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.
All 52 California House seats carry a rating.
Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 52 districts. Open a district for every rater and date.
California races rated Toss-Up
1of 52California 22nd District. It is the only race in California that either rater declines to call for a party.
California races no rater covers
0of 52Every California race carries a rating this cycle.
How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence
Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.
- Toss-Up, band across the top
- Lean D, band
- Likely D, band
- Solid D, band
- Solid R, band
Assumption, with reason What we infer, and why it is not yet a fact.
- Not on the 2026 ballot, per our inventory
Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of July 31, 2026.
Fig. 2
California at a glance
3 of 53 California seats are rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean.
53 seats on the 2026 ballot: the governor, 52 House seats. Ratings added October 8, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).
- Favor D 48
- Toss-Up 1
- Favor R 4
- Not rated 0
In play: 2 leaning D, 1 Toss-Up.
Lean against the nation
No statewide 2024 baseline is on record for California, because neither a Senate nor a governor race here carries one yet.
Of 52 House districts with a baseline, 47 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 5 more Republican.
House delegation, projected
Our model expects Democrats to win about 47 of 52 House seats here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.
The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.
Every California race our displayed rating calls close
Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.
#1 · U.S. House
California 13th DistrictCalifornia · U.S. House
Roster: California Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 27, 2026
Lean D, one of 3 California races our displayed rating calls close this cycle.
#2 · U.S. House
California 22nd DistrictCalifornia · U.S. House
Roster: California Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 27, 2026
Toss-Up, one of 3 California races our displayed rating calls close this cycle.
#3 · U.S. House
California 48th DistrictCalifornia · U.S. House
Roster: California Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 27, 2026
Lean D, one of 3 California races our displayed rating calls close this cycle.
California, district by district
Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.
- State
- Date
- Source
- Rights
- Key
Cook Political Report rating
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
State of each Cook Political Report rating
- Unproven
Cook Political Report rates 52 of 52 House seats in California and calls 1 of them a Toss-up. 52 seats are drawn on the map.
Data table: every House race in California (52)
| District | Cook Political Report | Lines on the map |
|---|---|---|
| California District 1 CA-01 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 2 CA-02 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 3 CA-03 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 4 CA-04 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 5 CA-05 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 6 CA-06 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 7 CA-07 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 8 CA-08 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 9 CA-09 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 10 CA-10 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 11 CA-11 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 12 CA-12 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 13 CA-13 | Lean D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 14 CA-14 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 15 CA-15 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 16 CA-16 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 17 CA-17 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 18 CA-18 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 19 CA-19 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 20 CA-20 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 21 CA-21 | Likely D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 22 CA-22 | Toss-Up | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 23 CA-23 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 24 CA-24 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 25 CA-25 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 26 CA-26 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 27 CA-27 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 28 CA-28 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 29 CA-29 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 30 CA-30 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 31 CA-31 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 32 CA-32 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 33 CA-33 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 34 CA-34 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 35 CA-35 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 36 CA-36 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 37 CA-37 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 38 CA-38 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 39 CA-39 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 40 CA-40 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 41 CA-41 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 42 CA-42 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 43 CA-43 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 44 CA-44 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 45 CA-45 | Likely D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 46 CA-46 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 47 CA-47 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 48 CA-48 | Lean D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 49 CA-49 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 50 CA-50 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 51 CA-51 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| California District 52 CA-52 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
Counties, by the numbers
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024
California: five economic indicators, county by county
Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.
Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to $67,139
- $67,139 to $76,373
- $76,373 to $92,175
- $92,175 to $109,797
- $109,797 to $164,281
- Not yet available (0 of 58)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 58 counties with a value in California. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 8.9%
- 8.9% to 11.2%
- 11.2% to 13.5%
- 13.5% to 16.7%
- 16.7% to 20.7%
- Not yet available (0 of 58)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 58 counties with a value in California. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024
- up to 5.2%
- 5.2% to 6.0%
- 6.0% to 6.6%
- 6.6% to 8.0%
- 8.0% to 9.5%
- Not yet available (0 of 58)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 58 counties with a value in California. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 48.4%
- 48.4% to 53.5%
- 53.5% to 56.1%
- 56.1% to 58.2%
- 58.2% to 61.9%
- Not yet available (0 of 58)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 58 counties with a value in California. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024
- Not yet available (58 of 58)
No county in California has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.
California has 58 counties. 58 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.
Alameda County, California
Close- Median household income
- $129,367
- Poverty rate
- 9.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Alpine County, California
Close- Median household income
- $105,521
- Poverty rate
- 10.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 9.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Amador County, California
Close- Median household income
- $88,044
- Poverty rate
- 8.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Butte County, California
Close- Median household income
- $67,928
- Poverty rate
- 19.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 60.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Calaveras County, California
Close- Median household income
- $78,647
- Poverty rate
- 13.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 59.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Colusa County, California
Close- Median household income
- $75,672
- Poverty rate
- 11.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Contra Costa County, California
Close- Median household income
- $127,229
- Poverty rate
- 8.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Del Norte County, California
Close- Median household income
- $67,058
- Poverty rate
- 12.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 58.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
El Dorado County, California
Close- Median household income
- $108,845
- Poverty rate
- 8.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Fresno County, California
Close- Median household income
- $74,201
- Poverty rate
- 18.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 55.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Glenn County, California
Close- Median household income
- $67,139
- Poverty rate
- 16.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Humboldt County, California
Close- Median household income
- $61,160
- Poverty rate
- 18.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 60.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Imperial County, California
Close- Median household income
- $57,681
- Poverty rate
- 19.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Inyo County, California
Close- Median household income
- $73,991
- Poverty rate
- 10.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 35.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Kern County, California
Close- Median household income
- $70,210
- Poverty rate
- 19.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Kings County, California
Close- Median household income
- $70,995
- Poverty rate
- 16.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lake County, California
Close- Median household income
- $60,621
- Poverty rate
- 17.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 61.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lassen County, California
Close- Median household income
- $67,403
- Poverty rate
- 14.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Los Angeles County, California
Close- Median household income
- $90,112
- Poverty rate
- 13.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Madera County, California
Close- Median household income
- $76,627
- Poverty rate
- 19.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Marin County, California
Close- Median household income
- $149,091
- Poverty rate
- 8.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 55.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Mariposa County, California
Close- Median household income
- $68,412
- Poverty rate
- 14.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Mendocino County, California
Close- Median household income
- $68,092
- Poverty rate
- 15.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Merced County, California
Close- Median household income
- $65,510
- Poverty rate
- 19.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Modoc County, California
Close- Median household income
- $59,455
- Poverty rate
- 17.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 44.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Mono County, California
Close- Median household income
- $99,415
- Poverty rate
- 8.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Monterey County, California
Close- Median household income
- $97,230
- Poverty rate
- 12.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 55.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Napa County, California
Close- Median household income
- $111,471
- Poverty rate
- 8.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Nevada County, California
Close- Median household income
- $89,882
- Poverty rate
- 11.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Orange County, California
Close- Median household income
- $116,289
- Poverty rate
- 9.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Placer County, California
Close- Median household income
- $115,998
- Poverty rate
- 6.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 3.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Plumas County, California
Close- Median household income
- $66,031
- Poverty rate
- 10.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Riverside County, California
Close- Median household income
- $93,074
- Poverty rate
- 10.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 59.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sacramento County, California
Close- Median household income
- $92,175
- Poverty rate
- 12.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Benito County, California
Close- Median household income
- $114,394
- Poverty rate
- 6.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Bernardino County, California
Close- Median household income
- $85,478
- Poverty rate
- 13.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 58.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Diego County, California
Close- Median household income
- $106,268
- Poverty rate
- 10.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Francisco County, California
Close- Median household income
- $140,970
- Poverty rate
- 11.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Joaquin County, California
Close- Median household income
- $92,179
- Poverty rate
- 12.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Luis Obispo County, California
Close- Median household income
- $97,446
- Poverty rate
- 12.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Mateo County, California
Close- Median household income
- $158,855
- Poverty rate
- 6.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Santa Barbara County, California
Close- Median household income
- $98,161
- Poverty rate
- 14.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Santa Clara County, California
Close- Median household income
- $164,281
- Poverty rate
- 7.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Santa Cruz County, California
Close- Median household income
- $111,093
- Poverty rate
- 11.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Shasta County, California
Close- Median household income
- $72,636
- Poverty rate
- 13.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sierra County, California
Close- Median household income
- $63,355
- Poverty rate
- 4.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Siskiyou County, California
Close- Median household income
- $59,095
- Poverty rate
- 16.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 58.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Solano County, California
Close- Median household income
- $100,401
- Poverty rate
- 10.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 60.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sonoma County, California
Close- Median household income
- $104,674
- Poverty rate
- 8.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Stanislaus County, California
Close- Median household income
- $81,468
- Poverty rate
- 13.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sutter County, California
Close- Median household income
- $79,704
- Poverty rate
- 14.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Tehama County, California
Close- Median household income
- $63,784
- Poverty rate
- 15.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Trinity County, California
Close- Median household income
- $53,002
- Poverty rate
- 20.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 34.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Tulare County, California
Close- Median household income
- $71,300
- Poverty rate
- 17.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Tuolumne County, California
Close- Median household income
- $77,404
- Poverty rate
- 10.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 59.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Ventura County, California
Close- Median household income
- $109,797
- Poverty rate
- 9.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 58.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Yolo County, California
Close- Median household income
- $91,752
- Poverty rate
- 16.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 59.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Yuba County, California
Close- Median household income
- $76,373
- Poverty rate
- 14.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
About these indicators
What each measure is and where it comes from. A county card shows only the county's own figures; this applies to all of them.
- Median household income
- Median household income in the past 12 months, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013).
- Poverty rate
- Share of people whose income is below the federal poverty threshold. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701).
- Uninsured, under 65
- Model-based share of people under 65 without health insurance, all incomes. SAHIE, 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- Share of renter households spending 30 percent or more of income on gross rent. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04).
- Per-capita personal income
- Total personal income divided by the county population, before taxes. BEA CAINC1, 2024. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1).
Data table: every county, every indicator (58 counties)
| County | Household income | Poverty | Uninsured under 65 | Rent burden | Per-capita income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda | $129,367 | 9.2% | 4.6% | 50.4% | Not yet available |
| Alpine | $105,521 | 10.0% | 4.1% | 9.2% | Not yet available |
| Amador | $88,044 | 8.2% | 5.3% | 45.6% | Not yet available |
| Butte | $67,928 | 19.2% | 6.3% | 60.0% | Not yet available |
| Calaveras | $78,647 | 13.0% | 5.3% | 59.3% | Not yet available |
| Colusa | $75,672 | 11.4% | 9.0% | 54.5% | Not yet available |
| Contra Costa | $127,229 | 8.4% | 5.0% | 56.2% | Not yet available |
| Del Norte | $67,058 | 12.9% | 6.1% | 58.4% | Not yet available |
| El Dorado | $108,845 | 8.0% | 4.4% | 53.5% | Not yet available |
| Fresno | $74,201 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 55.5% | Not yet available |
| Glenn | $67,139 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 50.4% | Not yet available |
| Humboldt | $61,160 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 60.1% | Not yet available |
| Imperial | $57,681 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 53.0% | Not yet available |
| Inyo | $73,991 | 10.9% | 5.7% | 35.5% | Not yet available |
| Kern | $70,210 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 56.5% | Not yet available |
| Kings | $70,995 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 48.7% | Not yet available |
| Lake | $60,621 | 17.0% | 7.4% | 61.9% | Not yet available |
| Lassen | $67,403 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 42.6% | Not yet available |
| Los Angeles | $90,112 | 13.7% | 8.3% | 57.6% | Not yet available |
| Madera | $76,627 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 56.8% | Not yet available |
| Marin | $149,091 | 8.3% | 5.0% | 55.6% | Not yet available |
| Mariposa | $68,412 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 48.5% | Not yet available |
| Mendocino | $68,092 | 15.4% | 8.3% | 54.9% | Not yet available |
| Merced | $65,510 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 51.9% | Not yet available |
| Modoc | $59,455 | 17.9% | 6.4% | 44.8% | Not yet available |
| Mono | $99,415 | 8.6% | 7.8% | 48.8% | Not yet available |
| Monterey | $97,230 | 12.7% | 9.3% | 55.6% | Not yet available |
| Napa | $111,471 | 8.5% | 7.0% | 54.8% | Not yet available |
| Nevada | $89,882 | 11.0% | 5.7% | 57.4% | Not yet available |
| Orange | $116,289 | 9.5% | 6.6% | 56.6% | Not yet available |
| Placer | $115,998 | 6.8% | 3.7% | 57.9% | Not yet available |
| Plumas | $66,031 | 10.6% | 5.2% | 45.1% | Not yet available |
| Riverside | $93,074 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 59.4% | Not yet available |
| Sacramento | $92,175 | 12.5% | 5.5% | 56.1% | Not yet available |
| San Benito | $114,394 | 6.7% | 6.0% | 47.8% | Not yet available |
| San Bernardino | $85,478 | 13.3% | 8.1% | 58.5% | Not yet available |
| San Diego | $106,268 | 10.3% | 6.5% | 57.8% | Not yet available |
| San Francisco | $140,970 | 11.2% | 4.0% | 39.6% | Not yet available |
| San Joaquin | $92,179 | 12.4% | 7.7% | 53.9% | Not yet available |
| San Luis Obispo | $97,446 | 12.9% | 6.0% | 57.5% | Not yet available |
| San Mateo | $158,855 | 6.7% | 4.4% | 48.4% | Not yet available |
| Santa Barbara | $98,161 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 57.8% | Not yet available |
| Santa Clara | $164,281 | 7.1% | 4.4% | 45.0% | Not yet available |
| Santa Cruz | $111,093 | 11.6% | 6.1% | 51.7% | Not yet available |
| Shasta | $72,636 | 13.3% | 6.0% | 53.4% | Not yet available |
| Sierra | $63,355 | 4.4% | 5.7% | 43.0% | Not yet available |
| Siskiyou | $59,095 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 58.2% | Not yet available |
| Solano | $100,401 | 10.0% | 5.4% | 60.2% | Not yet available |
| Sonoma | $104,674 | 8.9% | 6.0% | 54.8% | Not yet available |
| Stanislaus | $81,468 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 54.1% | Not yet available |
| Sutter | $79,704 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 53.3% | Not yet available |
| Tehama | $63,784 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 56.1% | Not yet available |
| Trinity | $53,002 | 20.7% | 5.1% | 34.5% | Not yet available |
| Tulare | $71,300 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 50.5% | Not yet available |
| Tuolumne | $77,404 | 10.4% | 4.8% | 59.3% | Not yet available |
| Ventura | $109,797 | 9.3% | 7.0% | 58.8% | Not yet available |
| Yolo | $91,752 | 16.7% | 5.4% | 59.1% | Not yet available |
| Yuba | $76,373 | 14.2% | 5.9% | 53.7% | Not yet available |
What the delegation says
What California is worth
California's stake in House control
3of 203 of the 20 seats that decide House control this cycle sit in California's delegation. The rest of the delegation is settled ground.
Competitive = rated Toss-Up or Lean by the crediting rater · as of October 18, 2026
Rating and model, side by side
- California 13th District Thin Gold model Likely D · about 4 in 5 chance for Democrats
Our model reads this race one notch more Democratic than the Cook Political Report rating.
- California 22nd District Thin Gold model Likely D · about 3 in 4 chance for Democrats
Our model reads this race two notches more Democratic than the Cook Political Report rating; Sabato's Crystal Ball has this race one notch right.
- California 48th District Thin Gold model Likely D · about 4 in 5 chance for Democrats
Our model reads this race one notch more Democratic than the Cook Political Report rating.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
U.S. Senate in California
Every rater we carry, with its own date. Candidates, incumbent, poll and forecast sit under each rating.
No Senate race is in Thin Gold's tracked inventory for California this cycle.
This is an assumption, not a statutory fact: our inventory not carrying a race may mean no seat is up in California, or it may mean our own coverage has a gap, and we cannot currently tell those two apart.
Governor of California
Ratings, candidates and incumbent where we hold them; every gap is marked with its reason.
Governor
California Governor
- Candidates
-
- D Xavier Becerra
- R Steve Hilton
- Incumbent
- Incumbent not yet confirmed.
- Latest poll
- A poll reading is on file, but its source document is not verifiable, so it is withheld.
- Our forecast
- No win probability. Our governor forecast has not yet passed its accuracy test against past elections.
U.S. House seats in California
Every district, in district order (52).
For all 52 districts: no poll on file.
U.S. House
California 1st District
- Candidates
-
- D Mike McGuire
- R James Gallagher
- Incumbent
- James Gallagher (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.7M / $2.3M
U.S. House
California 2nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Jared Huffman
- R Robin Littau
- Incumbent
- Jared Huffman (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1M / $25.8K
U.S. House
California 3rd District
- Candidates
-
- D Ami Bera
- R Robb Tucker
- Incumbent
- Kevin Kiley (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.1M / $402.1K
U.S. House
California 4th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Mike Thompson (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $12.6M / $143K
U.S. House
California 5th District
- Candidates
-
- D Michael Masuda
- R Tom McClintock
- Incumbent
- Tom McClintock (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $454.9K / $928.8K
U.S. House
California 6th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Ami Bera (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.9M / $17.4K
U.S. House
California 7th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Doris O. Matsui (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.3M / $25
U.S. House
California 8th District
- Candidates
-
- D John Garamendi
- R Rudy Recile
- Incumbent
- John Garamendi (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $551.9K / $8.6K
U.S. House
California 9th District
- Candidates
-
- D Josh Harder
- R John McBride
- Incumbent
- Josh Harder (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.1M / $81.8K
U.S. House
California 10th District
- Candidates
-
- D Mark DeSaulnier
- R Jeff Frese
- Incumbent
- Mark DeSaulnier (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $584.8K / $32.9K
U.S. House
California 11th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Nancy Pelosi (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $9M / $60
U.S. House
California 12th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Lateefah Simon (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.5M / n/a
U.S. House
California 13th District
- Candidates
-
- D Adam Gray
- R Kevin Lincoln
- Incumbent
- Adam Gray (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 4 in 5 · Likely D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.2M / $6.1M
U.S. House
California 14th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Aisha Wahab (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $6.4M / $41K
U.S. House
California 15th District
- Candidates
-
- D Kevin Mullin
- R Charles Hoelter
- Incumbent
- Kevin Mullin (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $860K / $5.4K
U.S. House
California 16th District
- Candidates
-
- D Sam Liccardo
- R Peter Sundin Soulé
- Incumbent
- Sam T. Liccardo (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $3.5M / $400
U.S. House
California 17th District
- Candidates
-
- D Ro Khanna
- R Ritesh Tandon
- Incumbent
- Ro Khanna (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $14.6M / $37.7K
U.S. House
California 18th District
- Candidates
-
- D Zoe Lofgren
- R Shane Lewis
- Incumbent
- Zoe Lofgren (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.7M / $60.2K
U.S. House
California 19th District
- Candidates
-
- D Jimmy Panetta
- R Peter Coe Verbica
- Incumbent
- Jimmy Panetta (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.9M / $76.3K
U.S. House
California 20th District
- Candidates
-
- D Sandra Van Scotter
- R Vince Fong
- Incumbent
- Vince Fong (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $141.6K / $1.8M
U.S. House
California 21st District
- Candidates
-
- D Jim Costa
- R Kyle Kirkland
- Incumbent
- Jim Costa (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.3M / $769.3K
U.S. House
California 22nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Randy Villegas
- R David G. Valadao
- Incumbent
- David G. Valadao (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 3 in 4 · Likely D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.2M / $4.9M
U.S. House
California 23rd District
- Candidates
-
- D Tessa Lynn Hodge
- R Jay Obernolte
- Incumbent
- Jay Obernolte (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $227.7K / $1.5M
U.S. House
California 24th District
- Candidates
-
- D Salud Carbajal
- R Bob Smith
- Incumbent
- Salud O. Carbajal (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.7M / $203.3K
U.S. House
California 25th District
- Candidates
-
- D Raul Ruiz
- R Joe Males
- Incumbent
- Raul Ruiz (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.1M / $1.3M
U.S. House
California 26th District
- Candidates
-
- D Jacqui Irwin
- R Sam Gallucci
- Incumbent
- Julia Brownley (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.6M / $490.6K
U.S. House
California 27th District
- Candidates
-
- D George Whitesides
- R Jason Gibbs
- Incumbent
- George Whitesides (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4M / $380K
U.S. House
California 28th District
- Candidates
-
- D Judy Chu
- R April A. Verlato
- Incumbent
- Judy Chu (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $930.1K / $250
U.S. House
California 29th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Luz M. Rivas (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $707.8K / $0
U.S. House
California 30th District
- Candidates
-
- D Laura Friedman
- R Scott Alan Meyers
- Incumbent
- Laura Friedman (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $886.2K / $71.7K
U.S. House
California 31st District
- Candidates
-
- D Gil Cisneros
- R Eric Ching
- Incumbent
- Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $705.3K / $81.6K
U.S. House
California 32nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Brad Sherman
- R Larry Thompson
- Incumbent
- Brad Sherman (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $6M / $34.3K
U.S. House
California 33rd District
- Candidates
-
- D Pete Aguilar
- R Stephanie M. Vargas
- Incumbent
- Pete Aguilar (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.7M / $82.8K
U.S. House
California 34th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Jimmy Gomez (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.6M / n/a
U.S. House
California 35th District
- Candidates
-
- D Norma J. Torres
- R Mike Cargile
- Incumbent
- Norma J. Torres (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $769.1K / $4.8K
U.S. House
California 36th District
- Candidates
-
- D Ted W. Lieu
- R Houston Brignano
- Incumbent
- Ted Lieu (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.9M / $36.1K
U.S. House
California 37th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Sydney Kamlager-Dove (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.2M / n/a
U.S. House
California 38th District
- Candidates
-
- D Hilda Solis
- R Pedro Antonio Casas
- Incumbent
- Linda T. Sánchez (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.3M / n/a
U.S. House
California 39th District
- Candidates
-
- D Mark Takano
- R Steve Manos
- Incumbent
- Mark Takano (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $893.8K / n/a
U.S. House
California 40th District
- Candidates
- Nominee not yet confirmed.
- Incumbent
- Young Kim (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $4.7M / $15M
U.S. House
California 41st District
- Candidates
-
- D Linda Sánchez
- R Mitch Clemmons
- Incumbent
- Ken Calvert (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.7M / $3.4K
U.S. House
California 42nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Robert Garcia
- R Brian Burley
- Incumbent
- Robert Garcia (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $2.6M / $394K
U.S. House
California 43rd District
- Candidates
-
- D Maxine Waters
- R Cristian Morales
- Incumbent
- Maxine Waters (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $879.5K / n/a
U.S. House
California 44th District
- Candidates
-
- D Nanette Diaz Barragan
- R Genevieve Angel
- Incumbent
- Nanette Diaz Barragán (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $785.8K / $13.9K
U.S. House
California 45th District
- Candidates
-
- D Derek Tran
- R Chuong V. Vo
- Incumbent
- Derek Tran (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $5M / $3.1M
U.S. House
California 46th District
- Candidates
-
- D Lou Correa
- R David Pan
- Incumbent
- J. Luis Correa (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.2M / $80.7K
U.S. House
California 47th District
- Candidates
-
- D Dave Min
- R Jenny Rae Le Roux
- Incumbent
- Dave Min (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $3.4M / $663.4K
U.S. House
California 48th District
- Candidates
-
- D Marni von Wilpert
- R Jim Desmond
- Incumbent
- Darrell Issa (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- about 4 in 5 · Likely D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $6.9M / $4.3M
U.S. House
California 49th District
- Candidates
-
- D Mike Levin
- R Armen Kurdian
- Incumbent
- Mike Levin (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $3.2M / $58.8K
U.S. House
California 50th District
- Candidates
-
- D Scott Peters
- R Steve Cohen
- Incumbent
- Scott H. Peters (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.9M / n/a
U.S. House
California 51st District
- Candidates
-
- D Sara Jacobs
- R Ricardo Cabrera
- Incumbent
- Sara Jacobs (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $1.6M / n/a
U.S. House
California 52nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Juan Vargas
- R Jeff Belle
- Incumbent
- Juan Vargas (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $573.9K / $25.5K
California governor, 2026
California Governor race · Incumbent: Gavin Newsom (retiring) Source: National Governors Association (not an official state record)
The California legislature
Thin Gold does not yet cover state legislative races. Coverage is a separate, later track.
-
Upper chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
-
Lower chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
How to vote in California
- Register to vote in California (vote.gov)
- Polling places and election dates · California’s official election page
Registration deadlines, ID rules, and early-voting dates vary by state and by election. Thin Gold does not track these facts directly; the links above go straight to the authorities that do. Link set checked August 13, 2026.