Missouri 2nd District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | |
| Split Ticket | Lean R | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Tossup |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: Missouri Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 25, 2026
No verified public poll. How we source polling data.
Missouri's 2nd congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+6.25, a margin that places it firmly in Republican-leaning territory but not beyond reach in a strong Democratic environment. The raters diverge modestly on how much reach that affords: Cook Political Report rates the race "Likely R" (Added 2026-09-17), with cookpolitical.com carrying the most current ratings and analysis. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Lean R" (Added 2026-09-29), Split Ticket rates it "Lean R" (Added 2026-09-05), and FiftyPlusOne rates it "Tossup" (Added 2026-10-02). That spread, from Likely R to Tossup, is the live question in this race: whether the district's partisan baseline holds or whether national conditions compress the margin enough to make it genuinely competitive. Three raters landing on "Lean R" and one on "Tossup" while Cook Political Report sits at "Likely R" reflects real disagreement about the district's elasticity. When analysts cluster around "Lean" rather than "Solid," it signals that outside investment and turnout patterns can move the outcome, and the divergence here is wide enough to keep both parties engaged. : https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential : https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $399.3K
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $3.6M
- Cash on hand
- $4.2M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jul 15, 2026.
District demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $102,169 (±$1,397)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,224 (±$19)
- People below the poverty line
- 5.8% (±0.3%)
- People without health insurance
- 4.1% (±0.3%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 41.0% (±1.6%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- Not shown. The federal form's Missouri deadline (28 days before the election) is older than current state law, which sets a later deadline (the fourth Wednesday before the election), so we do not show the form's date. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
- Early voting
- Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.