We’re bringing Thin Gold back online in phases. Some sections are still being checked and will return as each one is ready; our goal is to be fully back before the November 3 midterms.

Missouri 2nd District is the state's headline race: rated Likely R by Cook Political Report.

Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.

Fig. 2 · The Missouri delegation

All 8 Missouri House seats carry a rating.

Ratings Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, added October 18, 2026. A band means a rater made a claim.

Baselines 2024 presidential vote, The Downballot, as of October 3, 2026. A tint with no band is a measured past result.

Receipts FEC filings, as of August 7, 2026. This is the Missouri as-of date, not a site-wide one.

01 Solid D 02 Likely R 03 Solid R 04 Solid R 05 Solid D 06 Solid R 07 Solid R 08 Solid R

Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 8 districts. Open a district for every rater and date.

No Senate race is in Thin Gold's tracked inventory for Missouri this cycle. This is an assumption, not a statutory fact: our inventory not carrying a race may mean no seat is up in Missouri, or it may mean our own coverage has a gap, and we cannot currently tell those two apart.

Missouri races rated Toss-Up

0of 8

No Missouri race is a Toss-Up this cycle.

Missouri races no rater covers

0of 8

Every Missouri race carries a rating this cycle.

How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence

Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.

Solid D, band
Likely R, band
Solid R, band

Assumption, with reason What we infer, and why it is not yet a fact.

Not on the 2026 ballot, per our inventory

Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of August 7, 2026.

Fig. 2

Missouri at a glance

No Missouri seat is rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean by the raters we carry.

8 seats on the 2026 ballot: 8 House seats. Ratings added October 2, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).

Favor D 2
Toss-Up 0
Favor R 6
Not rated 0

Lean against the nation

No statewide 2024 baseline is on record for Missouri, because neither a Senate nor a governor race here carries one yet.

Of 8 House districts with a baseline, 2 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 6 more Republican.

House delegation, projected

Our model expects Democrats to win about 2 of 8 House seats here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.

The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.

Every Missouri race our displayed rating calls close

Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.

No Missouri race has a displayed rating of Toss-Up or Lean this cycle.

Missouri, district by district Cook Political Report ratings added October 18, 2026

Missouri, district by district

Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.

Cook Political Report rating

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

State of each Cook Political Report rating

Unproven

Cook Political Report rates 8 of 8 House seats in Missouri and calls 0 of them a Toss-up. 8 seats are drawn on the map.

Ratings: Cook Political Report , added October 18, 2026. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com . District lines: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line, 119th Congress districts, a federal work. This state’s districts are unchanged for 2026.

Data table: every House race in Missouri (8)

Every House race in Missouri: the Cook Political Report rating and where its lines come from. The date we added the ratings is in the figure's source line. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com.
District	Cook Political Report	Lines on the map
Missouri District 1 MO-01	Solid D	Census district lines
Missouri District 2 MO-02	Likely R	Census district lines
Missouri District 3 MO-03	Solid R	Census district lines
Missouri District 4 MO-04	Solid R	Census district lines
Missouri District 5 MO-05	Solid D	Census district lines
Missouri District 6 MO-06	Solid R	Census district lines
Missouri District 7 MO-07	Solid R	Census district lines
Missouri District 8 MO-08	Solid R	Census district lines

Counties, by the numbers

Missouri: five economic indicators, county by county Household income: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024

Missouri: five economic indicators, county by county

Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.

Household income Poverty Uninsured under 65 Rent burden Per-capita income

Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024

up to $51,975
$51,975 to $57,629
$57,629 to $62,158
$62,158 to $68,577
$68,577 to $104,692
Not yet available (0 of 115)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 115 counties with a value in Missouri. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024

up to 10.3%
10.3% to 13.5%
13.5% to 15.6%
15.6% to 18.2%
18.2% to 29.6%
Not yet available (0 of 115)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 115 counties with a value in Missouri. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024

up to 9.3%
9.3% to 10.6%
10.6% to 11.4%
11.4% to 12.8%
12.8% to 22.4%
Not yet available (0 of 115)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 115 counties with a value in Missouri. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024

up to 32.5%
32.5% to 38.7%
38.7% to 42.9%
42.9% to 46.2%
46.2% to 63.5%
Not yet available (0 of 115)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 115 counties with a value in Missouri. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024

Not yet available (115 of 115)

No county in Missouri has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.

Missouri has 115 counties. 115 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.