One race is being re-verified and is not shown here yet. It will return once it is confirmed.
The Idaho Senate race is the state's headline race, rated Solid R by Cook Political Report.
Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.
All 2 Idaho House seats carry a rating.
Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 2 districts. Open a district for every rater and date.
Idaho races rated Toss-Up
0of 3No Idaho race is a Toss-Up this cycle.
Idaho races no rater covers
0of 3Every Idaho race carries a rating this cycle.
How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence
Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.
- Solid R, band
Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of September 30, 2026.
Fig. 2
Idaho at a glance
No Idaho seat is rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean by the raters we carry.
3 seats on the 2026 ballot: 1 Senate, 2 House seats. Ratings added October 11, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).
- Favor D 0
- Toss-Up 0
- Favor R 3
- Not rated 0
Lean against the nation
In 2024 this state voted 35.0 points more Republican than the nation. Measured: FEC 2024 presidential results, difference from the national margin.
Of 2 House districts with a baseline, 0 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 2 more Republican.
House delegation, projected
Our model expects Democrats to win about 0 of 2 House seats here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.
The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.
Every Idaho race our displayed rating calls close
Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.
No Idaho race has a displayed rating of Toss-Up or Lean this cycle.
Idaho, district by district
Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.
- State
- Date
- Source
- Rights
- Key
Cook Political Report rating
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
State of each Cook Political Report rating
- Unproven
Cook Political Report rates 2 of 2 House seats in Idaho and calls 0 of them a Toss-up. 2 seats are drawn on the map.
Data table: every House race in Idaho (2)
| District | Cook Political Report | Lines on the map |
|---|---|---|
| Idaho District 1 ID-01 | Solid R | Census district lines |
| Idaho District 2 ID-02 | Solid R | Census district lines |
Counties, by the numbers
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024
Idaho: five economic indicators, county by county
Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.
Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to $60,000
- $60,000 to $66,325
- $66,325 to $70,830
- $70,830 to $76,488
- $76,488 to $99,805
- Not yet available (0 of 44)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 44 counties with a value in Idaho. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 9.2%
- 9.2% to 10.8%
- 10.8% to 12.2%
- 12.2% to 13.6%
- 13.6% to 24.5%
- Not yet available (0 of 44)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 44 counties with a value in Idaho. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024
- up to 10.0%
- 10.0% to 11.9%
- 11.9% to 13.2%
- 13.2% to 15.0%
- 15.0% to 19.8%
- Not yet available (0 of 44)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 44 counties with a value in Idaho. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 34.7%
- 34.7% to 39.9%
- 39.9% to 44.4%
- 44.4% to 51.8%
- 51.8% to 57.7%
- Not yet available (0 of 44)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 44 counties with a value in Idaho. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024
- Not yet available (44 of 44)
No county in Idaho has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.
Idaho has 44 counties. 44 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.
Ada County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $91,502
- Poverty rate
- 8.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Adams County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $61,808
- Poverty rate
- 17.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bannock County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $66,499
- Poverty rate
- 12.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bear Lake County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $75,260
- Poverty rate
- 7.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Benewah County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $59,794
- Poverty rate
- 12.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 15.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bingham County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $77,878
- Poverty rate
- 11.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Blaine County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $92,566
- Poverty rate
- 6.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 30.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Boise County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $78,774
- Poverty rate
- 7.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 29.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bonner County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $66,979
- Poverty rate
- 11.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bonneville County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $79,068
- Poverty rate
- 9.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Boundary County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $67,237
- Poverty rate
- 13.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 16.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 36.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Butte County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $53,015
- Poverty rate
- 19.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 44.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Camas County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $57,955
- Poverty rate
- 5.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Canyon County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $76,488
- Poverty rate
- 10.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Caribou County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $68,782
- Poverty rate
- 9.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Cassia County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $70,830
- Poverty rate
- 12.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 16.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Clark County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $55,208
- Poverty rate
- 11.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 19.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 57.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Clearwater County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $60,000
- Poverty rate
- 13.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Custer County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $67,574
- Poverty rate
- 15.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Elmore County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $65,359
- Poverty rate
- 10.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 44.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Franklin County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $71,950
- Poverty rate
- 7.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 36.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Fremont County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $72,683
- Poverty rate
- 10.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 15.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 34.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Gem County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $64,605
- Poverty rate
- 12.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Gooding County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $63,559
- Poverty rate
- 13.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 19.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Idaho County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $66,325
- Poverty rate
- 11.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 32.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Jefferson County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $86,679
- Poverty rate
- 9.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 28.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Jerome County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $71,724
- Poverty rate
- 12.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 18.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 34.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Kootenai County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $81,861
- Poverty rate
- 9.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Latah County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $65,424
- Poverty rate
- 17.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lemhi County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $53,202
- Poverty rate
- 12.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lewis County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $51,615
- Poverty rate
- 15.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 30.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lincoln County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $71,453
- Poverty rate
- 10.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 16.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Madison County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $60,160
- Poverty rate
- 24.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Minidoka County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $70,377
- Poverty rate
- 14.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 36.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Nez Perce County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $72,599
- Poverty rate
- 12.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 44.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Oneida County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $74,954
- Poverty rate
- 10.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Owyhee County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $64,406
- Poverty rate
- 12.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 19.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 36.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Payette County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $67,673
- Poverty rate
- 10.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 35.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Power County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $61,146
- Poverty rate
- 9.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 32.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Shoshone County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $55,527
- Poverty rate
- 13.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Teton County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $99,805
- Poverty rate
- 9.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 14.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 39.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Twin Falls County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $67,409
- Poverty rate
- 11.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 51.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Valley County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $76,078
- Poverty rate
- 11.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 22.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Washington County, Idaho
Close- Median household income
- $54,000
- Poverty rate
- 15.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
About these indicators
What each measure is and where it comes from. A county card shows only the county's own figures; this applies to all of them.
- Median household income
- Median household income in the past 12 months, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013).
- Poverty rate
- Share of people whose income is below the federal poverty threshold. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701).
- Uninsured, under 65
- Model-based share of people under 65 without health insurance, all incomes. SAHIE, 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- Share of renter households spending 30 percent or more of income on gross rent. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04).
- Per-capita personal income
- Total personal income divided by the county population, before taxes. BEA CAINC1, 2024. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1).
Data table: every county, every indicator (44 counties)
| County | Household income | Poverty | Uninsured under 65 | Rent burden | Per-capita income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | $91,502 | 8.3% | 8.1% | 49.0% | Not yet available |
| Adams | $61,808 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 56.3% | Not yet available |
| Bannock | $66,499 | 12.3% | 8.4% | 48.2% | Not yet available |
| Bear Lake | $75,260 | 7.0% | 10.0% | 54.6% | Not yet available |
| Benewah | $59,794 | 12.9% | 15.2% | 49.5% | Not yet available |
| Bingham | $77,878 | 11.7% | 11.9% | 39.9% | Not yet available |
| Blaine | $92,566 | 6.6% | 14.0% | 30.5% | Not yet available |
| Boise | $78,774 | 7.7% | 9.7% | 29.7% | Not yet available |
| Bonner | $66,979 | 11.1% | 13.2% | 45.2% | Not yet available |
| Bonneville | $79,068 | 9.8% | 9.7% | 39.4% | Not yet available |
| Boundary | $67,237 | 13.6% | 16.7% | 36.2% | Not yet available |
| Butte | $53,015 | 19.3% | 13.8% | 44.0% | Not yet available |
| Camas | $57,955 | 5.9% | 12.6% | 53.1% | Not yet available |
| Canyon | $76,488 | 10.5% | 14.3% | 48.6% | Not yet available |
| Caribou | $68,782 | 9.2% | 12.0% | 39.8% | Not yet available |
| Cassia | $70,830 | 12.4% | 16.4% | 43.3% | Not yet available |
| Clark | $55,208 | 11.7% | 19.2% | 57.7% | Not yet available |
| Clearwater | $60,000 | 13.2% | 10.0% | 45.9% | Not yet available |
| Custer | $67,574 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 42.5% | Not yet available |
| Elmore | $65,359 | 10.5% | 12.6% | 44.2% | Not yet available |
| Franklin | $71,950 | 7.9% | 10.8% | 36.3% | Not yet available |
| Fremont | $72,683 | 10.1% | 15.0% | 34.7% | Not yet available |
| Gem | $64,605 | 12.0% | 14.1% | 40.6% | Not yet available |
| Gooding | $63,559 | 13.0% | 19.4% | 43.7% | Not yet available |
| Idaho | $66,325 | 11.1% | 13.6% | 32.2% | Not yet available |
| Jefferson | $86,679 | 9.7% | 10.1% | 28.4% | Not yet available |
| Jerome | $71,724 | 12.6% | 18.9% | 34.7% | Not yet available |
| Kootenai | $81,861 | 9.0% | 10.1% | 53.2% | Not yet available |
| Latah | $65,424 | 17.6% | 9.2% | 53.1% | Not yet available |
| Lemhi | $53,202 | 12.8% | 11.4% | 56.8% | Not yet available |
| Lewis | $51,615 | 15.3% | 11.3% | 30.5% | Not yet available |
| Lincoln | $71,453 | 10.5% | 16.1% | 43.4% | Not yet available |
| Madison | $60,160 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 48.7% | Not yet available |
| Minidoka | $70,377 | 14.5% | 14.8% | 36.0% | Not yet available |
| Nez Perce | $72,599 | 12.2% | 9.5% | 44.4% | Not yet available |
| Oneida | $74,954 | 10.8% | 9.2% | 54.4% | Not yet available |
| Owyhee | $64,406 | 12.2% | 19.8% | 36.8% | Not yet available |
| Payette | $67,673 | 10.2% | 12.5% | 35.2% | Not yet available |
| Power | $61,146 | 9.5% | 13.2% | 32.1% | Not yet available |
| Shoshone | $55,527 | 13.1% | 11.2% | 41.5% | Not yet available |
| Teton | $99,805 | 9.1% | 14.2% | 39.5% | Not yet available |
| Twin Falls | $67,409 | 11.5% | 12.9% | 51.8% | Not yet available |
| Valley | $76,078 | 11.7% | 12.4% | 22.3% | Not yet available |
| Washington | $54,000 | 15.3% | 12.4% | 48.3% | Not yet available |
What the delegation says
What Idaho is worth
Idaho's stake in House control
0of 20No Idaho House race is rated Toss-Up or Lean this cycle. 20 seats elsewhere carry that rating; Idaho's House delegation is settled ground.
Competitive = rated Toss-Up or Lean by the crediting rater · as of October 18, 2026
U.S. Senate in Idaho
Every rater we carry, with its own date. Candidates, incumbent, poll and forecast sit under each rating.
U.S. Senate
Idaho Senate
- Candidates
-
- D David Roth
- R Jim Risch
- Incumbent
- James E. Risch (as of October 8, 2026)
- Latest poll
- No poll on file.
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $14.6K / $236.1K
Governor of Idaho
Ratings, candidates and incumbent where we hold them; every gap is marked with its reason.
A race here is being re-verified and is not shown yet. Back soon.
U.S. House seats in Idaho
Every district, in district order (2).
For all 2 districts: no poll on file.
U.S. House
Idaho 1st District
- Candidates
-
- D Kaylee Peterson
- R Russ Fulcher
- Incumbent
- Russ Fulcher (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $241.1K / $662.6K
U.S. House
Idaho 2nd District
- Candidates
-
- D Ellie Gilbreath
- R Mike Simpson
- Incumbent
- Michael K. Simpson (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $137.4K / $1.1M
The Idaho legislature
Thin Gold does not yet cover state legislative races. Coverage is a separate, later track.
-
Upper chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
-
Lower chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
How to vote in Idaho
- Register to vote in Idaho (vote.gov)
- Polling places and election dates · Idaho’s official election page
Registration deadlines, ID rules, and early-voting dates vary by state and by election. Thin Gold does not track these facts directly; the links above go straight to the authorities that do. Link set checked August 13, 2026.