Montana 1st District

No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.

Montana's 1st congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+9.9, a substantial structural gap that has shaped how analysts approach the race. Yet the most recent available polling, from September 2026, showed an even split between the two parties, a striking divergence from that baseline that accounts for why multiple raters have placed the race in competitive territory. Cook Political Report rates the district "Lean R" (Added October 12, 2026), and Sabato's Crystal Ball reached the same classification as of September 29, 2026. FiftyPlusOne rated the race a "Tossup" as of September 26, 2026, the most competitive assessment among the raters tracking it. The convergence of three separate rating organizations on a district with a baseline of nearly ten points Republican suggests polling and ground-level dynamics are compressing what the underlying numbers would otherwise predict. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com. Whether Democrats can close a gap of that magnitude in a single cycle will determine whether this race functions as a genuine toss-up or reverts toward its structural baseline before November. The distance between an even poll and an R+9.9 baseline is wide enough that small shifts in turnout composition or late-breaking developments could move the outcome sharply in either direction.