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HOUSE RACE

Texas 23rd District

Raters differ by degree: Toss-Up to Likely R. All four

Where this race stands

Published ratings for Texas 23rd District, one row per rater
Rater Rating Added
Cook Political Report Likely R
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R
Split Ticket Tossup
FiftyPlusOne Likely R
Thin Gold model Likely R · about 9 in 10 chance for Republicans

Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

See the full forecast →
On the November ballot
Katy Padilla Stout Democrat
vs
Brandon Herrera Republican

Roster: Texas Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 28, 2026

No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.

Unproven: Analysis held for checking never verified This text is held until it passes a current check of its candidate, officeholder and party claims against sourced records. How the claim check works

Campaign finance · FEC

Katy Padilla Stout
Raised
$940.2K
Cash on hand
$521.3K

Campaign finance · FEC

Brandon Herrera
Raised
$4.7M
Cash on hand
$737.1K

Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.

Election information

Voter registration deadline
October 4, 2026, per the federal form; this date falls on a Sunday and your state may move it, so confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
Early voting
Not shown. The state's election website blocks automated readers, and we do not work around that, so no state-published date is shown.

What is not on this page

  • Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
  • No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
  • District demographics are not shown: the Census figures we hold describe the 2024 district lines, which changed for 2026.
  • The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
Read Full House Analysis → · back soon