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Live coverage: Maine Senate race →

The Maine Senate race is the state's headline race, rated Toss-Up by Cook Political Report.

Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.

Fig. 2 · The Maine delegation

All 2 Maine House seats carry a rating.

Ratings Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, added October 18, 2026. A band means a rater made a claim.
Baselines 2024 presidential vote, The Downballot, as of October 3, 2026. A tint with no band is a measured past result.
Receipts FEC filings, as of September 30, 2026. This is the Maine as-of date, not a site-wide one.
01 Solid D 02 Lean R

Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 2 districts. Open a district for every rater and date.

Senate seat, on the 2026 ballot. Rated Toss-Up by Cook Political Report, October 18, 2026. · Troy D. Jackson (D) vs Susan M. Collins (R)

Maine races rated Toss-Up

1of 3

Maine Senate. It is the only race in Maine that either rater declines to call for a party.

Maine races no rater covers

0of 3

Every Maine race carries a rating this cycle.

How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence

Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.

  • Toss-Up, band across the top
  • Solid D, band
  • Lean R, band

Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of September 30, 2026.

Fig. 2

Maine at a glance

2 of 4 Maine seats are rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean.

4 seats on the 2026 ballot: 1 Senate, the governor, 2 House seats. Ratings added October 14, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).

  • Favor D 2
  • Toss-Up 1
  • Favor R 1
  • Not rated 0

In play: 1 Toss-Up, 1 leaning R.

Lean against the nation

In 2024 this state voted 8.4 points more Democratic than the nation. Measured: FEC 2024 presidential results, difference from the national margin.

Of 2 House districts with a baseline, 1 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 1 more Republican.

House delegation, projected

Our model expects Democrats to win about 1 of 2 House seats here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.

The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.

Every Maine race our displayed rating calls close

Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.

#1 · U.S. House

Maine 2nd District

Maine · U.S. House

Cook Political Report · Lean R Added Oct 14 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Lean R Split Ticket · Lean R Sep 24 FiftyPlusOne · Toss-Up Sep 1
On the November ballot
Matthew G. Dunlap Democrat
vs
Paul R. LePage Republican

Roster: Maine Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of September 30, 2026

$4.5M / $2.6M

Maine 2nd District · $7M total raised

Lean R, one of 2 Maine races our displayed rating calls close this cycle.

Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball

#2 · U.S. Senate

Maine Senate

Maine · U.S. Senate

Cook Political Report · Toss-Up Added Aug 25 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Toss-Up Split Ticket · Lean D Jul 28 FiftyPlusOne · Lean D Sep 1
On the November ballot
Troy D. Jackson Democrat
vs
Susan M. Collins Republican

Roster: Maine Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of September 30, 2026

$34.5M / $16.2M

Maine Senate · $50.7M total raised

Toss-Up, one of 2 Maine races our displayed rating calls close this cycle.

Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Added . For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com.

Maine, district by district Cook Political Report ratings added October 18, 2026

Maine, district by district

Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.

Maine House districts colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Cook Political Report rates 2 of 2 House seats in Maine and calls 0 of them a Toss-up. 2 seats are drawn on the map.MaineMaine District 1. Cook Political Report: Solid D.Maine District 2. Cook Political Report: Lean R.

Cook Political Report rating

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

State of each Cook Political Report rating

  • Unproven

Cook Political Report rates 2 of 2 House seats in Maine and calls 0 of them a Toss-up. 2 seats are drawn on the map.

Ratings: Cook Political Report , added October 18, 2026. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com . District lines: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line, 119th Congress districts, a federal work. This state’s districts are unchanged for 2026.
Data table: every House race in Maine (2)
Every House race in Maine: the Cook Political Report rating and where its lines come from. The date we added the ratings is in the figure's source line. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com.
DistrictCook Political ReportLines on the map
Maine District 1 ME-01Solid DCensus district lines
Maine District 2 ME-02Lean RCensus district lines

Counties, by the numbers

Maine: five economic indicators, county by county Household income: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024

Maine: five economic indicators, county by county

Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.

Maine counties, shaded by the selected economic indicator. Maine has 16 counties. 16 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.Androscoggin County. Household income: $67,873. Poverty: 14.4%. Uninsured under 65: 7.1%. Rent burden: 51.4%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Aroostook County. Household income: $56,700. Poverty: 14.4%. Uninsured under 65: 9.9%. Rent burden: 46.7%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Cumberland County. Household income: $95,677. Poverty: 7.3%. Uninsured under 65: 5.6%. Rent burden: 49.9%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Franklin County. Household income: $58,675. Poverty: 12.2%. Uninsured under 65: 9.1%. Rent burden: 44.4%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Hancock County. Household income: $72,744. Poverty: 9.9%. Uninsured under 65: 9.1%. Rent burden: 50.9%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Kennebec County. Household income: $69,077. Poverty: 11.6%. Uninsured under 65: 7.2%. Rent burden: 48.8%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Knox County. Household income: $74,096. Poverty: 8.2%. Uninsured under 65: 8.8%. Rent burden: 50.0%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Lincoln County. Household income: $76,875. Poverty: 7.9%. Uninsured under 65: 8.8%. Rent burden: 35.9%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Oxford County. Household income: $60,173. Poverty: 13.8%. Uninsured under 65: 9.7%. Rent burden: 54.2%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Penobscot County. Household income: $66,356. Poverty: 14.1%. Uninsured under 65: 7.1%. Rent burden: 50.4%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Piscataquis County. Household income: $61,345. Poverty: 15.5%. Uninsured under 65: 9.9%. Rent burden: 38.0%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Sagadahoc County. Household income: $87,806. Poverty: 10.0%. Uninsured under 65: 6.5%. Rent burden: 48.0%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Somerset County. Household income: $58,179. Poverty: 14.2%. Uninsured under 65: 9.1%. Rent burden: 43.7%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Waldo County. Household income: $72,782. Poverty: 12.0%. Uninsured under 65: 9.0%. Rent burden: 42.1%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.Washington County. Household income: $56,024. Poverty: 17.1%. Uninsured under 65: 11.1%. Rent burden: 52.2%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.York County. Household income: $88,333. Poverty: 7.7%. Uninsured under 65: 5.5%. Rent burden: 44.3%. Per-capita income: Not yet available. Open the county card.

Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024

  • up to $58,675
  • $58,675 to $66,356
  • $66,356 to $72,744
  • $72,744 to $76,875
  • $76,875 to $95,677
  • Not yet available (0 of 16)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 16 counties with a value in Maine. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024

  • up to 8.2%
  • 8.2% to 11.6%
  • 11.6% to 13.8%
  • 13.8% to 14.4%
  • 14.4% to 17.1%
  • Not yet available (0 of 16)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 16 counties with a value in Maine. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024

  • up to 7.1%
  • 7.1% to 8.8%
  • 8.8% to 9.1%
  • 9.1% to 9.7%
  • 9.7% to 11.1%
  • Not yet available (0 of 16)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 16 counties with a value in Maine. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024

  • up to 43.7%
  • 43.7% to 46.7%
  • 46.7% to 49.9%
  • 49.9% to 50.9%
  • 50.9% to 54.2%
  • Not yet available (0 of 16)

One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 16 counties with a value in Maine. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.

Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024

  • Not yet available (16 of 16)

No county in Maine has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.

Maine has 16 counties. 16 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.

Androscoggin County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$67,873Margin of error ±$1,991 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
14.4%Margin of error ±1.2 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
7.1%90% interval 6.4% to 7.8%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
51.4%Margin of error ±4.2 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Aroostook County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$56,700Margin of error ±$1,809 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
14.4%Margin of error ±1.2 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
9.9%90% interval 8.9% to 10.9%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
46.7%Margin of error ±5.1 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Cumberland County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$95,677Margin of error ±$1,883 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
7.3%Margin of error ±0.6 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
5.6%90% interval 5.1% to 6.1%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
49.9%Margin of error ±2.9 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Franklin County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$58,675Margin of error ±$2,708 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
12.2%Margin of error ±1.7 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
9.1%90% interval 8.0% to 10.2%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
44.4%Margin of error ±9.1 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Hancock County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$72,744Margin of error ±$3,276 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
9.9%Margin of error ±1.1 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
9.1%90% interval 8.1% to 10.1%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
50.9%Margin of error ±7.8 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Kennebec County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$69,077Margin of error ±$2,603 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
11.6%Margin of error ±1.2 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
7.2%90% interval 6.5% to 7.9%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
48.8%Margin of error ±4.7 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Knox County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$74,096Margin of error ±$3,739 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
8.2%Margin of error ±1.3 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
8.8%90% interval 7.9% to 9.7%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
50.0%Margin of error ±8.9 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Lincoln County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$76,875Margin of error ±$4,640 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
7.9%Margin of error ±1.3 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
8.8%90% interval 7.8% to 9.8%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
35.9%Margin of error ±7.8 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Oxford County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$60,173Margin of error ±$3,674 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
13.8%Margin of error ±1.4 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
9.7%90% interval 8.7% to 10.7%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
54.2%Margin of error ±8.2 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Penobscot County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$66,356Margin of error ±$1,898 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
14.1%Margin of error ±1.0 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
7.1%90% interval 6.4% to 7.8%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
50.4%Margin of error ±4.0 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Piscataquis County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$61,345Margin of error ±$4,372 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
15.5%Margin of error ±2.0 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
9.9%90% interval 8.7% to 11.1%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
38.0%Margin of error ±7.7 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Sagadahoc County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$87,806Margin of error ±$5,189 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
10.0%Margin of error ±1.7 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
6.5%90% interval 5.7% to 7.3%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
48.0%Margin of error ±10.1 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Somerset County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$58,179Margin of error ±$3,012 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
14.2%Margin of error ±1.4 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
9.1%90% interval 8.1% to 10.1%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
43.7%Margin of error ±7.1 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Waldo County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$72,782Margin of error ±$3,352 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
12.0%Margin of error ±1.6 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
9.0%90% interval 8.0% to 10.0%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
42.1%Margin of error ±7.0 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

Washington County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$56,024Margin of error ±$2,346 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
17.1%Margin of error ±1.4 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
11.1%90% interval 10.0% to 12.2%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
52.2%Margin of error ±5.9 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

York County, Maine

Close
Median household income
$88,333Margin of error ±$2,794 (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Poverty rate
7.7%Margin of error ±0.7 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Uninsured, under 65
5.5%90% interval 5.0% to 6.0%. SAHIE, 2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
44.3%Margin of error ±3.6 points (90% confidence). ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Last checked 2026-10-12.
Per-capita personal income
Not yet availableNo reading for this county is on file yet. It is not estimated.

Definition and source for each figure: see About these indicators, below the map.

About these indicators

What each measure is and where it comes from. A county card shows only the county's own figures; this applies to all of them.

Median household income
Median household income in the past 12 months, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013).
Poverty rate
Share of people whose income is below the federal poverty threshold. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701).
Uninsured, under 65
Model-based share of people under 65 without health insurance, all incomes. SAHIE, 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
Renters paying 30% or more of income
Share of renter households spending 30 percent or more of income on gross rent. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04).
Per-capita personal income
Total personal income divided by the county population, before taxes. BEA CAINC1, 2024. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1).
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013) · U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701) · U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates · U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04) · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1). County boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundaries (federal works). This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Data table: every county, every indicator (16 counties)
Maine counties: every indicator, 16 rows
CountyHousehold incomePovertyUninsured under 65Rent burdenPer-capita income
Androscoggin$67,87314.4%7.1%51.4%Not yet available
Aroostook$56,70014.4%9.9%46.7%Not yet available
Cumberland$95,6777.3%5.6%49.9%Not yet available
Franklin$58,67512.2%9.1%44.4%Not yet available
Hancock$72,7449.9%9.1%50.9%Not yet available
Kennebec$69,07711.6%7.2%48.8%Not yet available
Knox$74,0968.2%8.8%50.0%Not yet available
Lincoln$76,8757.9%8.8%35.9%Not yet available
Oxford$60,17313.8%9.7%54.2%Not yet available
Penobscot$66,35614.1%7.1%50.4%Not yet available
Piscataquis$61,34515.5%9.9%38.0%Not yet available
Sagadahoc$87,80610.0%6.5%48.0%Not yet available
Somerset$58,17914.2%9.1%43.7%Not yet available
Waldo$72,78212.0%9.0%42.1%Not yet available
Washington$56,02417.1%11.1%52.2%Not yet available
York$88,3337.7%5.5%44.3%Not yet available

What the delegation says

What Maine is worth

Maine's stake in House control

1of 20

One of the 20 seats that decide House control this cycle sits in Maine's delegation. Maine's Senate race is also rated Toss-Up or Lean, its own contest, not counted in that House total. The rest of the delegation is settled ground.

Competitive = rated Toss-Up or Lean by the crediting rater · as of October 18, 2026

Rating and model, side by side

  • Maine 2nd District
    Cook Political Report Lean R Thin Gold model Lean R · about 3 in 5 chance for Republicans

    Our model and the Cook Political Report rating agree on this race.

  • Maine Senate
    Cook Political Report Toss-Up Thin Gold model Likely D · about 4 in 5 chance for Democrats

    Our model reads this race two notches more Democratic than the Cook Political Report rating.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

U.S. Senate in Maine

Every rater we carry, with its own date. Candidates, incumbent, poll and forecast sit under each rating.

U.S. Senate

Maine Senate

Candidates
  • D Troy D. Jackson
  • R Susan M. Collins
Incumbent
Susan M. Collins (as of October 8, 2026)
Latest poll
A poll reading is on file, but its source document is not verifiable, so it is withheld.
Our forecast
about 4 in 5 · Likely D
Raised this cycle (D / R)
$34.5M / $16.2M

Race page

Governor of Maine

Ratings, candidates and incumbent where we hold them; every gap is marked with its reason.

Governor

Maine Governor

No rating on file from Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne.

Candidates
  • D Hannah M. Pingree
  • R Robert B. Charles
Incumbent
Incumbent not yet confirmed.
Latest poll
A poll reading is on file, but its source document is not verifiable, so it is withheld.
Our forecast
No win probability. Our governor forecast has not yet passed its accuracy test against past elections.

Race page

U.S. House seats in Maine

Every district, in district order (2).

U.S. House

Maine 2nd District

Candidates
  • D Matthew G. Dunlap
  • R Paul R. LePage
Incumbent
Jared F. Golden (as of September 29, 2026)
Latest poll
A poll reading is on file, but its source document is not verifiable, so it is withheld.
Our forecast
about 3 in 5 · Lean R
Raised this cycle (D / R)
$4.5M / $2.6M

Race page

Maine governor, 2026

Cook Political Report Solid D

Maine Governor race · Incumbent: Janet Mills (retiring) Source: National Governors Association (not an official state record)

The Maine legislature

Thin Gold does not yet cover state legislative races. Coverage is a separate, later track.

  • Upper chamber

    Not yet covered

    Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.

  • Lower chamber

    Not yet covered

    Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.

How to vote in Maine

Registration deadlines, ID rules, and early-voting dates vary by state and by election. Thin Gold does not track these facts directly; the links above go straight to the authorities that do. Link set checked August 13, 2026.