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SENATE RACE

Maine

Raters differ by degree: Lean D to Toss-Up. All four

Where this race stands

Published ratings for Maine, one row per rater
Rater Rating Added
Cook Political Report Toss-Up
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup
Split Ticket Lean D
FiftyPlusOne Lean D
Thin Gold model Likely D · about 4 in 5 chance for Democrats

Our model reads this race more Democratic than every rater covering it.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

See the full forecast →
On the November ballot
Troy D. Jackson Democrat
vs
Susan M. Collins Republican

Roster: Maine Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of September 30, 2026

No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.

Unproven: Analysis held for checking never verified This text is held until it passes a current check of its candidate, officeholder and party claims against sourced records. How the claim check works

Campaign finance · FEC

Troy D. Jackson
Raised
$34.5M
Cash on hand
$2.1M

Campaign finance · FEC

Susan M. Collins
Raised
$16.2M
Cash on hand
$11M

Federal Election Commission filings, as of Sep 30, 2026.

State demographics · Census ACS

Median household income
$74,733 (±$795)
Median gross rent, monthly
$1,139 (±$13)
People below the poverty line
10.7% (±0.3%)
People without health insurance
6.2% (±0.3%)
Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
48.4% (±1.5%)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , statewide; the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.

Election information

Voter registration deadline
October 13, 2026, per the federal form; confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
Early voting
Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.

What is not on this page

  • Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
  • Individual polls are not listed: the poll rows on file for this race carry no source document.
  • Outside spending totals are not shown: the figures on file for this race name no source or date.
  • The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
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