Iowa 3rd District

No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.

Iowa's 3rd congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+2.76, which makes the current ratings from multiple forecasters notable. Cook Political Report rates the race "Lean D" as of October 9, 2026. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Tossup" as of August 10, 2026, while Split Ticket rated it "Likely D" as of September 24, 2026, and FiftyPlusOne rated it "Likely D" as of September 13, 2026. The convergence of three of four trackers toward Democrats in a district with a Republican-leaning baseline indicates forecasters are pricing in conditions beyond partisanship alone. The most recent polling, from March 2026, showed Republicans leading by six points. The divergence between that early survey and subsequent rating assessments points to forecasters applying additional structural judgments as the cycle progressed. With a district baseline modestly favoring Republicans and ratings that lean the other direction, Iowa's 3rd is among the more closely watched House races in the Midwest this cycle. : https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Iowa : https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings