Vermont At-Large District is the state's headline race: rated Solid D by Cook Political Report.
Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.
All 1 Vermont House seat carry a rating.
Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 1 district. Open a district for every rater and date.
Vermont races rated Toss-Up
0of 1No Vermont race is a Toss-Up this cycle.
Vermont races no rater covers
0of 1Every Vermont race carries a rating this cycle.
How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence
Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.
- Solid D, band
Assumption, with reason What we infer, and why it is not yet a fact.
- Not on the 2026 ballot, per our inventory
Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of July 23, 2026.
Fig. 2
Vermont at a glance
No Vermont seat is rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean by the raters we carry.
2 seats on the 2026 ballot: the governor, 1 House seat. Ratings added October 2, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).
- Favor D 1
- Toss-Up 0
- Favor R 1
- Not rated 0
Lean against the nation
No statewide 2024 baseline is on record for Vermont, because neither a Senate nor a governor race here carries one yet.
Of 1 House district with a baseline, 1 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 0 more Republican.
House delegation, projected
Our model expects Democrats to win about 1 of 1 House seat here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.
The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.
Every Vermont race our displayed rating calls close
Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.
No Vermont race has a displayed rating of Toss-Up or Lean this cycle.
Vermont, its one House seat
Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.
- State
- Date
- Source
- Rights
- Key
Cook Political Report rating
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
State of each Cook Political Report rating
- Unproven
Cook Political Report rates Vermont’s one House seat and does not call it a Toss-up. 1 seat is drawn on the map.
Data table: every House race in Vermont (1)
| District | Cook Political Report | Lines on the map |
|---|---|---|
| Vermont at-large VT-AL | Solid D | State outline (at-large) |
Counties, by the numbers
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024
Vermont: five economic indicators, county by county
Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.
Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to $69,970
- $69,970 to $73,325
- $73,325 to $81,313
- $81,313 to $89,639
- $89,639 to $97,396
- Not yet available (0 of 14)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 14 counties with a value in Vermont. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 8.5%
- 8.5% to 9.3%
- 9.3% to 11.3%
- 11.3% to 11.7%
- 11.7% to 13.8%
- Not yet available (0 of 14)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 14 counties with a value in Vermont. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024
- up to 4.5%
- 4.5% to 5.3%
- 5.3% to 5.9%
- 5.9% to 6.1%
- 6.1% to 7.3%
- Not yet available (0 of 14)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 14 counties with a value in Vermont. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 43.5%
- 43.5% to 45.9%
- 45.9% to 49.0%
- 49.0% to 50.4%
- 50.4% to 63.7%
- Not yet available (0 of 14)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 14 counties with a value in Vermont. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024
- Not yet available (14 of 14)
No county in Vermont has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.
Vermont has 14 counties. 14 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.
Addison County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $89,639
- Poverty rate
- 7.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Bennington County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $73,325
- Poverty rate
- 11.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 63.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Caledonia County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $69,970
- Poverty rate
- 11.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Chittenden County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $96,759
- Poverty rate
- 9.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Essex County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $59,294
- Poverty rate
- 13.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Franklin County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $81,313
- Poverty rate
- 10.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Grand Isle County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $97,396
- Poverty rate
- 7.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Lamoille County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $74,908
- Poverty rate
- 8.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 7.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Orange County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $82,232
- Poverty rate
- 9.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 53.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Orleans County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $70,103
- Poverty rate
- 11.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 43.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Rutland County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $68,616
- Poverty rate
- 11.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.2%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Washington County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $83,449
- Poverty rate
- 8.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 4.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Windham County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $72,217
- Poverty rate
- 11.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Windsor County, Vermont
Close- Median household income
- $77,594
- Poverty rate
- 9.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 5.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 41.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
About these indicators
What each measure is and where it comes from. A county card shows only the county's own figures; this applies to all of them.
- Median household income
- Median household income in the past 12 months, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013).
- Poverty rate
- Share of people whose income is below the federal poverty threshold. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701).
- Uninsured, under 65
- Model-based share of people under 65 without health insurance, all incomes. SAHIE, 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- Share of renter households spending 30 percent or more of income on gross rent. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04).
- Per-capita personal income
- Total personal income divided by the county population, before taxes. BEA CAINC1, 2024. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1).
Data table: every county, every indicator (14 counties)
| County | Household income | Poverty | Uninsured under 65 | Rent burden | Per-capita income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison | $89,639 | 7.6% | 4.9% | 45.9% | Not yet available |
| Bennington | $73,325 | 11.3% | 6.0% | 63.7% | Not yet available |
| Caledonia | $69,970 | 11.7% | 5.9% | 47.7% | Not yet available |
| Chittenden | $96,759 | 9.7% | 4.3% | 50.4% | Not yet available |
| Essex | $59,294 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 49.6% | Not yet available |
| Franklin | $81,313 | 10.3% | 4.5% | 49.0% | Not yet available |
| Grand Isle | $97,396 | 7.9% | 4.6% | 43.7% | Not yet available |
| Lamoille | $74,908 | 8.5% | 7.3% | 45.3% | Not yet available |
| Orange | $82,232 | 9.3% | 5.3% | 53.2% | Not yet available |
| Orleans | $70,103 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 43.5% | Not yet available |
| Rutland | $68,616 | 11.8% | 5.6% | 50.2% | Not yet available |
| Washington | $83,449 | 8.7% | 4.4% | 40.9% | Not yet available |
| Windham | $72,217 | 11.6% | 6.1% | 46.4% | Not yet available |
| Windsor | $77,594 | 9.2% | 5.3% | 41.5% | Not yet available |
What the delegation says
What Vermont is worth
Vermont's stake in House control
0of 20No Vermont House race is rated Toss-Up or Lean this cycle. 20 seats elsewhere carry that rating; Vermont's House delegation is settled ground.
Competitive = rated Toss-Up or Lean by the crediting rater · as of October 18, 2026
U.S. Senate in Vermont
Every rater we carry, with its own date. Candidates, incumbent, poll and forecast sit under each rating.
No Senate race is in Thin Gold's tracked inventory for Vermont this cycle.
This is an assumption, not a statutory fact: our inventory not carrying a race may mean no seat is up in Vermont, or it may mean our own coverage has a gap, and we cannot currently tell those two apart.
Governor of Vermont
Ratings, candidates and incumbent where we hold them; every gap is marked with its reason.
Governor
Vermont Governor
- Candidates
-
- D AMANDA JANOO
- R PHIL SCOTT
- Incumbent
- Incumbent not yet confirmed.
- Latest poll
- A poll reading is on file, but its source document is not verifiable, so it is withheld.
- Our forecast
- No win probability. Our governor forecast has not yet passed its accuracy test against past elections.
U.S. House seats in Vermont
Every district, in district order (1).
For the district: no poll on file.
U.S. House
Vermont At-Large District
- Candidates
-
- D BECCA BALINT
- R GERALD MALLOY
- Incumbent
- Becca Balint (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $956.3K / $94.3K
Vermont governor, 2026
Vermont Governor race · Incumbent: Phil Scott Source: National Governors Association (not an official state record)
The Vermont legislature
Thin Gold does not yet cover state legislative races. Coverage is a separate, later track.
-
Upper chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
-
Lower chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
How to vote in Vermont
- Register to vote in Vermont (vote.gov)
- Polling places and election dates · Vermont’s official election page
Registration deadlines, ID rules, and early-voting dates vary by state and by election. Thin Gold does not track these facts directly; the links above go straight to the authorities that do. Link set checked August 13, 2026.