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HOUSE RACE

Kansas 4th District

See all four ratings

Where this race stands

Published ratings for Kansas 4th District, one row per rater
Rater Rating Added
Cook Political Report Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater.
Split Ticket Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater.
FiftyPlusOne Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater.
Thin Gold model Safe R · more than 19 in 20 chance for Republicans

Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

See the full forecast →
On the November ballot
Katy Tyndell Democrat
vs
Ron Estes Republican

Roster: Kansas Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of October 11, 2026

No verified public poll. How we source polling data.

Unproven: Analysis held for checking never verified This text is held until it passes a current check of its candidate, officeholder and party claims against sourced records. How the claim check works

Campaign finance · FEC

Katy Tyndell
Raised
$332K
Cash on hand
$76.4K

Campaign finance · FEC

Ron Estes
Raised
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$1.8M

Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jul 15, 2026.

District demographics · Census ACS

Median household income
$69,200 (±$1,061)
Median gross rent, monthly
$968 (±$13)
People below the poverty line
13.0% (±0.6%)
People without health insurance
10.0% (±0.4%)
Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
43.8% (±1.4%)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.

Election information

Voter registration deadline
October 13, 2026 (Kansas Secretary of State, as of October 10, 2026)
Early voting
Begins October 14, 2026; every county by October 27, 2026 (Kansas Secretary of State, as of October 10, 2026)

What is not on this page

  • Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
  • No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
  • The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
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