Utah 1st District is the state's headline race: rated Solid D by Cook Political Report.
Every seat in the delegation below, in district order. A colored band across the top of a cell means a rater has made a claim about that race. A cell with no band is a settled seat, tinted by its 2024 presidential margin, which is a measured past result and not a 2026 forecast.
All 4 Utah House seats carry a rating.
Each rating word is the seat's displayed rating, taken from Cook Political Report for 4 districts. Open a district for every rater and date.
Utah races rated Toss-Up
0of 4No Utah race is a Toss-Up this cycle.
Utah races no rater covers
0of 4Every Utah race carries a rating this cycle.
How a cell is encoded, and on what evidence
Rater judgment A handicapper's published claim about a specific race.
- Solid D, band
- Solid R, band
Assumption, with reason What we infer, and why it is not yet a fact.
- Not on the 2026 ballot, per our inventory
Ratings drawn from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball , added October 18, 2026. For the most current Cook Political Report ratings and analysis, see cookpolitical.com. Settled seats are tinted by their 2024 presidential-vote baseline as of October 3, 2026, sourced from The Downballot, and carry no band, because a baseline is a measured past result and never a rating. Fundraising figures from FEC filings, as of July 6, 2026.
Fig. 2
Utah at a glance
No Utah seat is rated Toss-Up, Tilt or Lean by the raters we carry.
4 seats on the 2026 ballot: 4 House seats. Ratings added August 25, 2026. A seat counts by the first rater with a live rating ( Cook Political Report , then Sabato’s Crystal Ball, then Split Ticket, then FiftyPlusOne).
- Favor D 1
- Toss-Up 0
- Favor R 3
- Not rated 0
Lean against the nation
No statewide 2024 baseline is on record for Utah, because neither a Senate nor a governor race here carries one yet.
Of 4 House districts with a baseline, 1 voted more Democratic than the nation in 2024 and 3 more Republican.
House delegation, projected
Our model expects Democrats to win about 1 of 4 House seats here (run of October 18, 2026). Expected value across district win probabilities, not a call on any one seat.
The current party split of the delegation is not shown: seat-holder party is not yet a sourced field in our data.
Every Utah race our displayed rating calls close
Toss-Up and Lean races by our displayed rating (Cook Political Report when live, Sabato’s Crystal Ball otherwise), ranked as they appear in the delegation above.
No Utah race has a displayed rating of Toss-Up or Lean this cycle.
Utah, district by district
Each district is colored by the Cook Political Report rating. Blue and red mean a rated lean; gold is a Toss-up. Hatching means Cook Political Report has not rated the seat. The data table under the map lists every district’s rating and where its lines come from.
- State
- Date
- Source
- Rights
- Key
Cook Political Report rating
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
State of each Cook Political Report rating
- Unproven
Cook Political Report rates 4 of 4 House seats in Utah and calls 0 of them a Toss-up. 4 seats are drawn on the map.
Data table: every House race in Utah (4)
| District | Cook Political Report | Lines on the map |
|---|---|---|
| Utah District 1 UT-01 | Solid D | Enacted 2026 map |
| Utah District 2 UT-02 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| Utah District 3 UT-03 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
| Utah District 4 UT-04 | Solid R | Enacted 2026 map |
Counties, by the numbers
Poverty: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Uninsured under 65: SAHIE, 2024
Rent burden: ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
Per-capita income: BEA CAINC1, 2024
Utah: five economic indicators, county by county
Pick an indicator to shade the map. Each indicator gets its own gold ramp, scaled to this state's counties, with stronger gold for a higher value. A hatched county has no reading available yet; it is never estimated.
Median household income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to $66,247
- $66,247 to $74,884
- $74,884 to $80,632
- $80,632 to $101,786
- $101,786 to $138,114
- Not yet available (0 of 29)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 29 counties with a value in Utah. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Poverty rate · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 6.4%
- 6.4% to 8.4%
- 8.4% to 9.8%
- 9.8% to 12.5%
- 12.5% to 18.1%
- Not yet available (0 of 29)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 29 counties with a value in Utah. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Uninsured, under 65 · SAHIE, 2024
- up to 9.0%
- 9.0% to 10.4%
- 10.4% to 10.9%
- 10.9% to 12.5%
- 12.5% to 16.9%
- Not yet available (0 of 29)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 29 counties with a value in Utah. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Renters paying 30% or more of income · ACS 5-year, 2020-2024
- up to 27.1%
- 27.1% to 35.5%
- 35.5% to 42.4%
- 42.4% to 47.1%
- 47.1% to 56.7%
- Not yet available (0 of 29)
One gold ramp; stronger gold means a higher value. Classes are quintiles of the 29 counties with a value in Utah. The ramp is not a party colour and does not mean better or worse.
Per-capita personal income · BEA CAINC1, 2024
- Not yet available (29 of 29)
No county in Utah has a reading for this indicator yet, so there is no ramp to show. The ramp, once it has data, is one gold hue: not a party colour, and not a verdict of better or worse.
Utah has 29 counties. 29 have at least one indicator available; a county with no value for an indicator is hatched and marked "Not yet available", never estimated.
Beaver County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $79,360
- Poverty rate
- 6.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 26.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Box Elder County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $84,550
- Poverty rate
- 8.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Cache County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $81,665
- Poverty rate
- 12.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Carbon County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $58,377
- Poverty rate
- 17.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 50.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Daggett County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $66,000
- Poverty rate
- 9.0%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 27.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Davis County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $110,884
- Poverty rate
- 6.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 47.1%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Duchesne County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $78,445
- Poverty rate
- 11.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 32.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Emery County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $74,291
- Poverty rate
- 12.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 44.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Garfield County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $61,875
- Poverty rate
- 9.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.2%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 26.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Grand County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $67,106
- Poverty rate
- 13.3%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.0%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Iron County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $66,247
- Poverty rate
- 13.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 54.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Juab County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $101,786
- Poverty rate
- 6.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 27.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Kane County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $77,092
- Poverty rate
- 9.5%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 35.5%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Millard County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $73,639
- Poverty rate
- 7.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 46.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Morgan County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $130,929
- Poverty rate
- 1.4%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 6.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 23.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Piute County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $48,393
- Poverty rate
- 10.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 16.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 28.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Rich County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $79,009
- Poverty rate
- 3.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 19.0%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Salt Lake County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $97,494
- Poverty rate
- 8.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.6%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 48.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
San Juan County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $64,481
- Poverty rate
- 18.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 30.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sanpete County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $70,083
- Poverty rate
- 15.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.4%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 42.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Sevier County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $74,884
- Poverty rate
- 9.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 40.9%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Summit County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $138,114
- Poverty rate
- 4.9%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 9.8%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 36.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Tooele County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $106,587
- Poverty rate
- 5.2%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 37.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Uintah County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $73,746
- Poverty rate
- 11.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 13.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 31.4%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Utah County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $100,671
- Poverty rate
- 8.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 8.1%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.3%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wasatch County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $117,608
- Poverty rate
- 4.7%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.9%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 49.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Washington County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $80,632
- Poverty rate
- 9.8%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 12.7%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 56.7%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Wayne County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $76,607
- Poverty rate
- 10.6%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 11.3%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 18.8%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
Weber County, Utah
Close- Median household income
- $90,005
- Poverty rate
- 8.1%
- Uninsured, under 65
- 10.5%
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- 45.6%
- Per-capita personal income
- Not yet available
About these indicators
What each measure is and where it comes from. A county card shows only the county's own figures; this applies to all of them.
- Median household income
- Median household income in the past 12 months, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table B19013).
- Poverty rate
- Share of people whose income is below the federal poverty threshold. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (table S1701).
- Uninsured, under 65
- Model-based share of people under 65 without health insurance, all incomes. SAHIE, 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.
- Renters paying 30% or more of income
- Share of renter households spending 30 percent or more of income on gross rent. ACS 5-year, 2020-2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (profile DP04).
- Per-capita personal income
- Total personal income divided by the county population, before taxes. BEA CAINC1, 2024. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts (CAINC1).
Data table: every county, every indicator (29 counties)
| County | Household income | Poverty | Uninsured under 65 | Rent burden | Per-capita income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaver | $79,360 | 6.6% | 10.9% | 26.8% | Not yet available |
| Box Elder | $84,550 | 8.4% | 10.0% | 40.3% | Not yet available |
| Cache | $81,665 | 12.0% | 9.6% | 45.4% | Not yet available |
| Carbon | $58,377 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 50.0% | Not yet available |
| Daggett | $66,000 | 9.0% | 8.4% | 27.1% | Not yet available |
| Davis | $110,884 | 6.4% | 6.8% | 47.1% | Not yet available |
| Duchesne | $78,445 | 11.8% | 12.5% | 32.3% | Not yet available |
| Emery | $74,291 | 12.5% | 10.4% | 44.5% | Not yet available |
| Garfield | $61,875 | 9.8% | 10.2% | 26.4% | Not yet available |
| Grand | $67,106 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 42.4% | Not yet available |
| Iron | $66,247 | 13.8% | 11.4% | 54.4% | Not yet available |
| Juab | $101,786 | 6.9% | 10.8% | 27.4% | Not yet available |
| Kane | $77,092 | 9.5% | 10.6% | 35.5% | Not yet available |
| Millard | $73,639 | 7.7% | 13.1% | 46.3% | Not yet available |
| Morgan | $130,929 | 1.4% | 6.3% | 23.0% | Not yet available |
| Piute | $48,393 | 10.2% | 16.9% | 28.6% | Not yet available |
| Rich | $79,009 | 3.8% | 12.3% | 19.0% | Not yet available |
| Salt Lake | $97,494 | 8.1% | 9.6% | 48.9% | Not yet available |
| San Juan | $64,481 | 18.1% | 10.9% | 30.4% | Not yet available |
| Sanpete | $70,083 | 15.2% | 13.4% | 42.4% | Not yet available |
| Sevier | $74,884 | 9.7% | 11.9% | 40.9% | Not yet available |
| Summit | $138,114 | 4.9% | 9.8% | 36.3% | Not yet available |
| Tooele | $106,587 | 5.2% | 8.5% | 37.8% | Not yet available |
| Uintah | $73,746 | 11.8% | 13.5% | 31.4% | Not yet available |
| Utah | $100,671 | 8.7% | 8.1% | 45.3% | Not yet available |
| Wasatch | $117,608 | 4.7% | 10.9% | 49.6% | Not yet available |
| Washington | $80,632 | 9.8% | 12.7% | 56.7% | Not yet available |
| Wayne | $76,607 | 10.6% | 11.3% | 18.8% | Not yet available |
| Weber | $90,005 | 8.1% | 10.5% | 45.6% | Not yet available |
What the delegation says
What Utah is worth
Utah's stake in House control
0of 20No Utah House race is rated Toss-Up or Lean this cycle. 20 seats elsewhere carry that rating; Utah's House delegation is settled ground.
Competitive = rated Toss-Up or Lean by the crediting rater · as of October 18, 2026
U.S. Senate in Utah
Every rater we carry, with its own date. Candidates, incumbent, poll and forecast sit under each rating.
No Senate race is in Thin Gold's tracked inventory for Utah this cycle.
This is an assumption, not a statutory fact: our inventory not carrying a race may mean no seat is up in Utah, or it may mean our own coverage has a gap, and we cannot currently tell those two apart.
Governor of Utah
Ratings, candidates and incumbent where we hold them; every gap is marked with its reason.
Our inventory carries no governor race for Utah this cycle. That may mean none is on the ballot, or that our coverage has a gap; we cannot yet tell the two apart.
U.S. House seats in Utah
Every district, in district order (4).
For all 4 districts: no poll on file.
U.S. House
Utah 1st District
- Candidates
-
- D BEN MCADAMS
- R RILEY OWEN
- Incumbent
- Blake D. Moore (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe D
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $3.9M / $132.5K
U.S. House
Utah 2nd District
- Candidates
-
- D PETER CROSBY
- R BLAKE D. MOORE
- Incumbent
- Celeste Maloy (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $87.9K / $2.8M
U.S. House
Utah 3rd District
- Candidates
-
- D KENT S. UDELL
- R CELESTE MALOY
- Incumbent
- Mike Kennedy (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $68.6K / $1.5M
U.S. House
Utah 4th District
- Candidates
-
- D JONNY LARSEN
- R MIKE KENNEDY
- Incumbent
- Burgess Owens (as of September 29, 2026)
- Our forecast
- more than 19 in 20 · Safe R
- Raised this cycle (D / R)
- $53.6K / $1.7M
The Utah legislature
Thin Gold does not yet cover state legislative races. Coverage is a separate, later track.
-
Upper chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
-
Lower chamber
Not yet covered
Will show which party controls it, how many seats are up in 2026, and how many are rated competitive.
How to vote in Utah
- Register to vote in Utah (vote.gov)
- Polling places and election dates · Utah’s official election page
Registration deadlines, ID rules, and early-voting dates vary by state and by election. Thin Gold does not track these facts directly; the links above go straight to the authorities that do. Link set checked August 13, 2026.