Texas 28th District

Cook Political Report rates Texas's 28th congressional district Lean D as of August 25, a classification that puts the seat in play despite the Democratic incumbent's structural advantages along the U.S.-Mexico border. The district stretches from San Antonio's south side through Laredo to the Rio Grande Valley, a corridor where natural gas royalties, agricultural labor contracting, and customs brokerage form the backbone of the local economy. industries whose regulatory posture in Congress matters to residents on both sides of virtually every debate about trade and energy development. The race carries unusual backstory. Henry Cuellar, who held the seat for two decades, was convicted in 2024 on federal bribery charges tied to his relationship with Mexican banking interests and a government-linked energy company, removing an incumbent whose fundraising and seniority had long insulated the district from competition. The open seat reshuffled the political math entirely. Polling through late June showed the Democratic candidate leading by 1.5 points, a margin thin enough to invite serious Republican investment in a border district that has trended rightward in successive cycles. The Cook Partisan Voting Index baseline puts the district at roughly R+9 relative to national partisanship, meaning a Democratic hold depends on candidate quality and turnout architecture rather than any ambient ideological tilt. For a district where Customs and Border Protection is among the largest employers and where LNG export terminals upstream have reshaped labor markets, the congressional vote on energy permitting and trade enforcement carries direct wage consequences. The November outcome will determine whether the seat stays in Democratic hands or flips to a Republican who would join a House majority already positioned to accelerate federal permitting for fossil-fuel infrastructure.