Ohio 15th District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | |
| Split Ticket | Likely R | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean R |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: Ohio Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of June 3, 2026
No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.
Ohio's 15th congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+8.37, yet polling as of September 24, 2026 shows Democrats within D+1 of Republicans. That gap between structural lean and current survey data is what the ratings agencies are weighing. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely R as of August 25, 2026. Sabato's Crystal Ball agrees, holding a Likely R classification as of September 29, 2026. Split Ticket also rates it Likely R as of September 24, 2026. FiftyPlusOne places the race at Lean R as of September 1, 2026, a marginally softer Republican-side assessment than the other three raters carry. The district was redrawn for the 2026 cycle, which means historical geographic assumptions about its composition may not map cleanly onto the current configuration. With four rating agencies aligned on the Republican side but polling tighter than the baseline would predict, the question the race poses is whether the redrawn lines have altered the underlying competitive dynamics enough to matter in November. : https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential : https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings : https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2104619061556457603
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $270.8K
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $3.3M
- Cash on hand
- $2.1M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 4, 2026, per the federal form; this date falls on a Sunday and your state may move it, so confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- Not shown. The state's election website does not allow automated access to its election pages, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- District demographics are not shown: the Census figures we hold describe the 2024 district lines, which changed for 2026.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.