Ohio 10th District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | |
| Split Ticket | Likely R | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean R |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Roster: Ohio Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of June 3, 2026
No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.
Ohio's 10th congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+6.14 and, as of late July 2026, polling showed Republicans leading by R+7. The district was redrawn for the 2026 cycle, making historical comparisons less reliable than the current numbers. Cook Political Report rates the race "Likely R" (Added August 25, 2026). Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Likely R" as of September 16, 2026. Split Ticket rates it "Likely R" as of July 28, 2026. FiftyPlusOne rates it "Lean R" as of September 1, 2026, a modest dissent from the other three raters that suggests Democrats may have somewhat more room to compete than the consensus holds. Current ratings and analysis at cookpolitical.com. The polling margin and baseline point in the same direction, and three of four trackers agree on the same label. The FiftyPlusOne "Lean R" classification is the only signal that the race could tighten.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $570K
- Cash on hand
- $194.9K
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $894.6K
- Cash on hand
- $556.3K
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- October 4, 2026, per the federal form; this date falls on a Sunday and your state may move it, so confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
- Early voting
- Not shown. The state's election website does not allow automated access to its election pages, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- District demographics are not shown: the Census figures we hold describe the 2024 district lines, which changed for 2026.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.