Washington 3rd District

Cook Political Report moved Washington's 3rd congressional district from Lean D to Toss-Up on August 25, a rating shift that crystallizes what polling had already suggested: Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces a genuinely competitive race against Republican John Braun. A July 13 survey showed Braun leading by 1 point, and the district's baseline relative margin sits at roughly 1.6 points Republican, meaning Gluesenkamp Perez has been running ahead of the district's underlying lean throughout her tenure rather than coasting on safe territory. The district spans the rural and exurban stretches of southwest Washington, timber and agriculture country where economic dislocation has sharpened voter skepticism of both parties' donor-class priorities. Gluesenkamp Perez won the seat in 2022 by defeating Trump-backed Joe Kent in one of the cycle's most-watched upsets, positioning herself as a working-class Democrat with crossover appeal in a district that backed Donald Trump at the presidential level. That positioning is now being tested again. Washington's top-two primary system means both candidates advanced out of the same pool of voters, giving Braun an early read on his coalition's ceiling. The race is now one of the tighter incumbent-defense contests in the House, and its outcome will turn on whether Gluesenkamp Perez's record of district-specific constituent work holds voters who don't share her party label. or whether Braun's alignment with the district's rural-conservative base converts that slim polling deficit into a House seat.