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SENATE RACE

Texas

Raters differ by degree: Lean D to Toss-Up. All four

Where this race stands

Published ratings for Texas, one row per rater
Rater Rating Added
Cook Political Report Toss-Up
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup
Split Ticket Lean D
FiftyPlusOne Lean D
Thin Gold model Toss-up · about 3 in 5 chance for Democrats

Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

See the full forecast →
On the November ballot
James Talarico Democrat
vs
Ken Paxton Republican

Roster: Texas Secretary of State · state candidate list · as of August 28, 2026

No verified polling margin for this race yet. A figure on file has no verified source document, so it is not shown. How we source polling data.

Unproven: Analysis held for checking never verified This text is held until it passes a current check of its candidate, officeholder and party claims against sourced records. How the claim check works

Campaign finance · FEC

James Talarico
Raised
$87.3M
Cash on hand
$21.5M

Campaign finance · FEC

Ken Paxton
Raised
$20M
Cash on hand
$2.3M

Federal Election Commission filings, as of Sep 30, 2026.

State demographics · Census ACS

Median household income
$78,476 (±$263)
Median gross rent, monthly
$1,403 (±$4)
People below the poverty line
13.8% (±0.1%)
People without health insurance
17.1% (±0.2%)
Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
51.7% (±0.3%)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , statewide; the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.

Election information

Voter registration deadline
October 4, 2026, per the federal form; this date falls on a Sunday and your state may move it, so confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
Early voting
Not shown. The state's election website blocks automated readers, and we do not work around that, so no state-published date is shown.

What is not on this page

  • Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
  • Individual polls are not listed: the poll rows on file for this race carry no source document.
  • Outside spending totals are not shown: the figures on file for this race name no source or date.
  • The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
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