SENATE RACE
Texas
CANDIDATES
James Talarico
Democrat · Challenger
41.5%
538
vs.
John Cornyn
Republican · Incumbent
50.3%
538
State Rep. James Talarico, a millennial populist focused on education and grid reliability, is the long-shot Democratic nominee against three-term Sen. John Cornyn. Texas remains structurally Republican, but Talarico's message on the power grid, public school funding, and economic fairness targets the suburban and Latino voters who have narrowed margins cycle after cycle. Cornyn survived a Paxton primary challenge but emerged bruised. The Iran war's impact on Texas's massive military and energy sectors adds an unpredictable variable.
OUTSIDE SPENDING
Pro-D $2.8M
Pro-R $1.5M
D groups testing viability before major investment
RECENT POLLS
| Pollster | Date | D% | R% | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT/Texas Politics | 2026-03-18 | 42 | 50 | R+8 |
| Emerson | 2026-03-02 | 41 | 51 | R+10 |
| PPP | 2026-02-15 | 43 | 49 | R+6 |
KEY ISSUES
| Issue / Topic | Democrat | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| Border | Comprehensive reform, pathway to citizenship | Wall, enforcement-first |
| Energy | Grid reliability, renewable transition | Fossil fuel expansion |
| Economy | Public education funding, healthcare expansion | Low taxes, deregulation |
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
James Talarico
- Raised
- $4.2M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on Hand
- $2.3M
- Small Donors
- 60%
- PAC / Super PAC
- $0.6M
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
John Cornyn
- Raised
- $15.2M
- Spent
- $8.4M
- Cash on Hand
- $7.1M
- Small Donors
- 12%
- PAC / Super PAC
- $6.8M
DEMOGRAPHICS · CENSUS
- Population
- 30.5M
- Median Household Income
- $67,321
- White Non-Hispanic
- 39.8%
- Black
- 12.9%
- Hispanic / Latino
- 40.2%
- College Educated (25+)
- 31.3%
- Union Membership
- 4.1%
ELECTION INFO
- Election Date
- November 3, 2026
- Primary Date
- March 3, 2026; R runoff May 26, 2026
- Term Length
- 6 years (Class II)
- Voter Registration Deadline
- October 5, 2026
- Early Voting
- Yes, October 19 - October 30, 2026