SENATE RACE
Florida (Special)
CANDIDATES
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Democrat · Challenger
42.8%
538
vs.
Ashley Moody
Republican · Open Seat Candidate
50.5%
538
Florida's special election to fill Rubio's seat (vacated for SoS) pits Attorney General Ashley Moody against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who nearly won in 2024. Alexander Vindman adds name recognition to the D primary but Mucarsel-Powell's South Florida base and Latino outreach make her the frontrunner. Florida has trended red since 2018, but property insurance costs, Social Security anxiety, and the Iran war's impact on the state's massive veteran population create Democratic openings in a special-election turnout environment.
OUTSIDE SPENDING
Pro-D $3.5M
Pro-R $2.1M
D groups investing to force R spending in a state they'd otherwise ignore
RECENT POLLS
| Pollster | Date | D% | R% | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | 2026-03-20 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
| Emerson | 2026-03-08 | 42 | 51 | R+9 |
| PPP | 2026-02-22 | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-02-05 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
KEY ISSUES
| Issue / Topic | Democrat | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | Property insurance reform, climate resilience | Market solutions, tort reform |
| Social Security | Expand benefits, remove cap | Protect current benefits, reform spending |
| Immigration | Comprehensive reform, DACA protection | Border enforcement, E-Verify |
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
- Raised
- $6.5M
- Spent
- $3.4M
- Cash on Hand
- $3.3M
- Small Donors
- 40%
- PAC / Super PAC
- $1.8M
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
Ashley Moody
- Raised
- $10.2M
- Spent
- $5.8M
- Cash on Hand
- $4.8M
- Small Donors
- 15%
- PAC / Super PAC
- $4.5M
DEMOGRAPHICS · CENSUS
- Population
- 22.6M
- Median Household Income
- $63,062
- White Non-Hispanic
- 51.5%
- Black
- 16.9%
- Hispanic / Latino
- 26.8%
- College Educated (25+)
- 31.5%
- Union Membership
- 5.6%
ELECTION INFO
- Election Date
- November 3, 2026
- Primary Date
- August 18, 2026
- Term Length
- Remainder of Rubio term (Class III, expires Jan 2029)
- Voter Registration Deadline
- October 5, 2026
- Early Voting
- Yes, October 19 - November 1, 2026