Florida (Special)

As of Jul 1, 2026

Cook Political Report moved Florida's special Senate seat to Toss-Up, a classification now shared by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, marking a striking repositioning for a state Republicans carried by more than three points in 2024. The seat opened when Marco Rubio resigned to serve as Secretary of State; Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to hold it rather than calling an earlier special election, a decision that compressed Democratic organizing time while giving Moody the incumbency label heading into the contest. As of mid-May, polling showed Democrats leading by seven points, a margin that would have been implausible in Florida two cycles ago. The Democratic primary, scheduled for August 18, pits Alexander Vindman against former Congresswoman Annette Mucarsel-Powell, whose 2018 Miami-area House win demonstrated she can move Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American voters in a state where those communities have swung sharply rightward. The compressed calendar means the eventual Democratic nominee will have roughly ten weeks to consolidate and fundraise before November, a narrow window in a state where paid media in the Miami, Orlando, and Tampa markets costs among the most of any Senate battleground. Thin Gold's populist-alignment score for this seat is low. Neither party's primary competition turns on extractive-industry regulation, monopoly enforcement, or labor. What the race does test is whether DeSantis-style executive appointment power, used to shield a safe seat from an early referendum, can hold against a national environment that has grown hostile to incumbents of both parties. Moody was placed on this ballot by one man's decision; voters will decide whether that was accountability or its absence.