Same inequality, new century. We're keeping score.

We’re bringing Thin Gold back online in phases. Some sections are still being checked and will return as each one is ready; our goal is to be fully back before the November 3 midterms.

← Back to Race Tracker All Minnesota races →
SENATE RACE

Minnesota

See all four ratings

Where this race stands

Published ratings for Minnesota, one row per rater
Rater Rating Added
Cook Political Report Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D
Split Ticket Likely D
FiftyPlusOne Likely D
Thin Gold model Safe D · more than 19 in 20 chance for Democrats

Our model reads this race more Democratic than every rater covering it.

Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology

See the full forecast →

Candidates

We have not yet confirmed the nominees from an official source. We show a nominee once a state election authority or certified results confirm the name.

We do not carry Minnesota's certified primary result.

Minnesota Secretary of State publishes the certified primary result on its official results page and its candidate page.

Minnesota's election site turns away automated requests, and we do not work around that.

Minnesota held its primary on August 11, 2026.

What we know

  • Per Wikipedia, Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic primary. As of October 17, 2026 · Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), cross-checked against FEC filings · Not state-certified
  • Per Wikipedia, Michele Tafoya won the Republican primary. As of October 17, 2026 · Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), cross-checked against FEC filings · Not state-certified

No verified public poll. How we source polling data.

Unproven: Analysis held for checking never verified This text is held until it passes a current check of its candidate, officeholder and party claims against sourced records. How the claim check works

Campaign finance · FEC

Democratic
Raised
$19.6M
Cash on hand
$4.8M

Campaign finance · FEC

Republican
Raised
$8M
Spent
$10.2M
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Small-dollar share of individual contributions (derived)
43%
PAC / committee contributions
$365.6K

Federal Election Commission filings, as of Sep 30, 2026.

State demographics · Census ACS

Median household income
$89,062 (±$409)
Median gross rent, monthly
$1,280 (±$7)
People below the poverty line
9.3% (±0.2%)
People without health insurance
4.7% (±0.1%)
Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
48.1% (±0.6%)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , statewide; the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.

Election information

Voter registration deadline
October 13, 2026, per the federal form; confirm with your state (U.S. Election Assistance Commission, National Mail Voter Registration Form, as of October 10, 2026)
Early voting
October 16 to November 2, 2026 (Minnesota Secretary of State, as of October 10, 2026)

What is not on this page

  • Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
  • Individual polls are not listed: the poll rows on file for this race carry no source document.
  • Outside spending totals are not shown: the figures on file for this race name no source or date.
  • The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.
Read Full Senate Analysis → · back soon