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SENATE RACE

Minnesota


Likely D Cook Political Report · Updated
CANDIDATES
Peggy Flanagan
Democrat · Challenger
50.2%
538
vs.
Michele Tafoya
Republican · Challenger
42.1%
538

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the first Native American woman to serve as a state executive, is the frontrunner for Minnesota's open seat (Klobuchar retiring). She faces broadcaster-turned-activist Michele Tafoya, who is running on culture-war themes and fiscal conservatism. Flanagan's record on paid family leave, child care, and the Minnesota public option gives her strong populist credentials, while Angie Craig may challenge from a more centrist lane in the D primary. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican senator since 2002.

OUTSIDE SPENDING
Pro-D
$1.5M
Pro-R
$2.8M

R groups probing for an upset; D groups expect comfortable hold

RECENT POLLS
Pollster Date D% R% Spread
Star Tribune/MPR 2026-03-18 51 41 D+10
Emerson 2026-03-05 49 43 D+6
SurveyUSA 2026-02-20 50 42 D+8
KEY ISSUES
Issue / Topic Democrat Republican
Healthcare MN public option model, drug pricing Market competition, reduce mandates
Economy Paid family leave, child care Tax cuts, spending restraint
Education Universal pre-K, student debt relief School choice, parental rights
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
Peggy Flanagan

Raised
$5.8M
Spent
$2.9M
Cash on Hand
$3.2M
Small Donors
45%
PAC / Super PAC
$1.6M
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
Michele Tafoya

Raised
$3.2M
Spent
$1.8M
Cash on Hand
$1.5M
Small Donors
30%
PAC / Super PAC
$1.8M
DEMOGRAPHICS · CENSUS

Population
5.7M
Median Household Income
$77,706
White Non-Hispanic
76.3%
Black
7.6%
Hispanic / Latino
6.1%
College Educated (25+)
37.3%
Union Membership
14.4%
ELECTION INFO

Election Date
November 3, 2026
Primary Date
August 11, 2026
Term Length
6 years (Class II)
Voter Registration Deadline
Same-day registration available
Early Voting
Yes, 46 days before election