Massachusetts
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | |
| Split Ticket | Safe D | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Safe D |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →Candidates
We do not carry Massachusetts's certified primary result.
Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division publishes the certified primary result on its official results page.
Massachusetts's published terms restrict reuse of its election data, and we honor that.
Massachusetts held its primary on September 1, 2026.
What we know
- Per Wikipedia, Ed Markey won the Democratic primary.
- Per Wikipedia, John Deaton won the Republican primary.
No verified public poll. How we source polling data.
Massachusetts's 2026 U.S. Senate race draws four raters to the same conclusion. Cook Political Report rates it "Solid D" (Added 2026-08-25); cookpolitical.com carries the most current ratings and analysis. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Safe D" (Added 2026-08-11). Split Ticket and FiftyPlusOne each rate it "Safe D" as well (both Added 2026-09-01). The fundraising gap between the two party sides is measurable. Democrats reported $11,644,584 in total cycle receipts and $3,186,001 cash on hand as of the most recent FEC filing. Republicans reported $1,641,370 in total cycle receipts and $740,681 cash on hand as of the most recent FEC filing. That roughly seven-to-one receipts ratio matches the uniform rating alignment across all four raters. The publication's populist-alignment assessment for this race is moderate. Where all four rating organizations agree and the financial picture is this uneven, the race offers less traction for accountability-focused analysis than a contested one would. The practical signal here is in the gap itself: when a party side raises less than a sixth of what the other side does, organized opposition faces a structural resource problem that no individual message easily overcomes.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $11.6M
- Cash on hand
- $3.2M
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $740.7K
- Small-dollar share of individual contributions (derived)
- 16%
- PAC / committee contributions
- $10K
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Sep 30, 2026.
State demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $103,960 (±$527)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,762 (±$9)
- People below the poverty line
- 10.0% (±0.1%)
- People without health insurance
- 2.6% (±0.1%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 51.8% (±0.5%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , statewide; the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- Not shown. The federal form's Massachusetts deadline (20 days before the election) is older than current state law, which sets a later deadline, so we do not show the form's date. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
- Early voting
- Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.