New Hampshire

As of Jul 4, 2026

Cook Political Report rates the New Hampshire seat Lean R, a classification that sits notably to the right of both Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, which each hold it at Lean D. That divergence among major forecasters is itself the story: Jeanne Shaheen's retirement after three terms opens the first truly contested New Hampshire Senate seat since 2010, and no one can agree on what the state's famously independent electorate will do without an incumbent on the ballot. Chris Pappas, the second-district congressman who entered the race in April 2025, leads the polling average by 10.8 points as of late June 2026. That margin is healthy, but the Republican primary will determine whether it holds. John Sununu, who lost this very seat to Shaheen in 2008, and Scott Brown, who lost it to her again in 2014, are competing for the nomination. Both carry the weight of prior New Hampshire defeats, and whichever emerges will face a general electorate that has punished carpetbagger candidacies before. New Hampshire's economic identity compounds the uncertainty. The state has no income tax and no sales tax, a structure that produces a small-government libertarian baseline in the electorate and keeps both parties disciplined on fiscal issues. Pappas's record as a moderate House Democrat fits that environment reasonably well, but the open seat creates a real test of whether the Democratic coalition that Shaheen assembled over decades can transfer to a first-time Senate candidate. The Republican who survives the primary inherits the brand recognition problem that has already cost both Sununu and Brown a Senate seat apiece.