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SENATE RACE

Michigan


Toss-Up Cook Political Report · Updated
CANDIDATES
Mallory McMorrow
Democrat · Challenger
46.5%
538
vs.
Mike Rogers
Republican · Challenger
45.8%
538

Michigan's open Senate seat (Peters retiring) features state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who went viral for her floor speech on culture war attacks, against former Rep. Mike Rogers, a national security hawk. McMorrow leans into EV transition and union protections in the heart of auto country, while Rogers pitches himself as a security-first moderate. Abdul El-Sayed runs a progressive primary challenge but trails. Michigan's high union membership and auto industry anxiety make economic populism the decisive frame.

OUTSIDE SPENDING
Pro-D
$5.4M
Pro-R
$6.9M

SLF investing heavily for Rogers

RECENT POLLS
Pollster Date D% R% Spread
EPIC-MRA 2026-03-22 47 45 D+2
Emerson 2026-03-08 46 46 EVEN
Fox News/Beacon 2026-02-20 45 47 R+2
PPP 2026-02-05 47 44 D+3
KEY ISSUES
Issue / Topic Democrat Republican
Auto Industry EV transition support, union jobs Market-driven transition, reduce mandates
Healthcare Public option, drug price negotiation Market competition, reduce regulations
Economy Manufacturing investment, tariff adjustment Tax cuts, energy independence
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
Mallory McMorrow

Raised
$6.4M
Spent
$3.1M
Cash on Hand
$3.5M
Small Donors
55%
PAC / Super PAC
$1.2M
CAMPAIGN FINANCE · FEC
Mike Rogers

Raised
$9.1M
Spent
$5.8M
Cash on Hand
$3.7M
Small Donors
20%
PAC / Super PAC
$4.8M
DEMOGRAPHICS · CENSUS

Population
10.0M
Median Household Income
$63,498
White Non-Hispanic
73.9%
Black
14.1%
Hispanic / Latino
5.6%
College Educated (25+)
30.0%
Union Membership
14.1%
ELECTION INFO

Election Date
November 3, 2026
Primary Date
August 4, 2026
Term Length
6 years (Class II)
Voter Registration Deadline
October 19, 2026
Early Voting
Yes, 40 days before election