THE RECORD · Through October 18, 2026
Updates
A running record of what is moving on the beat: economic power, the populist response, and the 2026 midterms.
What counts as major
An entry is major when the kind marked beside it is Correction, Method or Model; or when a headline number moved at least this much since the entry before it (generic ballot 0.5, net approval 2.0, production wages 0.3, unemployment 0.2, S&P 500 100, electoral movement ranked first); or when it changed a race page or published a dispatch. Everything else is routine. Nothing is hidden: routine entries are one click away under All entries, and every dated entry keeps its own page. Touching a race page or publishing a dispatch does not on its own make a day inside a collapsed run of repeated refreshes major.
OCTOBER 2026
Oct 18: daily refresh
Unchanged: Senate forecast about 2 in 5 for R , House forecast about 1 in 5 for R , Generic ballot D+8.2 , Unemployment 4.2% , Production wages 3.3%
Update
Oct 17: Net approval -20.6 → -24.4
Unchanged: Production wages 3.3%
Major Update
SEPTEMBER 2026
Sep 23: S&P 500 7,551.81 → 7,764.64
Unchanged: Generic ballot D+7.5 , Approval -20.6 , Unemployment 4.1% , Production wages 3.3%
Major Update
Sep 18: Generic ballot D+6.6 → D+7.5
Unchanged: Senate forecast about 2 in 5 for R , House forecast about 2 in 5 for R , Approval -20.6 , Unemployment 4.1% , Production wages 3.3% , S&P 500 7,551.81
Major Update
Sep 13: Senate races refreshed
Unchanged: Generic ballot D+6.6 , Approval -20.6 , Unemployment 4.1% , Production wages 3.3% , S&P 500 7,591.7
Major Update
Sep 11: S&P 500 7,718.6 → 7,591.7
Unchanged: House forecast about 2 in 5 for R , Generic ballot D+6.6 , Approval -20.6 , Unemployment 4.1% , Production wages 3.3%
Major Update
AUGUST 2026
Aug 27: daily refresh
Unchanged: Generic ballot D+6.7 , Approval -20.6 , Unemployment 4.1% , Production wages 3.2%
Update
Aug 21: S&P 500 7,785.76 → 7,641.16
Unchanged: House forecast about 1 in 4 for R , Generic ballot D+6.7 , Approval -20.4 , Unemployment 4.1% , Production wages 3.2%
Major Update
Aug 12: Generic ballot D+6 → D+6.7
Unchanged: Senate forecast about 1 in 4 for R , Unemployment 4.1% , Production wages 3.2% , S&P 500 7,753.11
Major Update
Aug 5: Generic ballot D+4.9 → D+6
Unchanged: Approval -20.6 , Unemployment 4.2% , Production wages 3.4%
Major Update
JULY 2026
Jul 31: Net approval -17.4 → -20.6
Unchanged: Generic ballot D+4.9 , Unemployment 4.2% , Production wages 3.4% , S&P 500 7,316.15
Major Update
Jul 22: Generic ballot D+5.8 → D+4.9
Unchanged: Senate forecast about 1 in 3 for R , Approval -17.4 , Unemployment 4.2% , Production wages 3.4% , S&P 500 7,457.69
Major Update
JUNE 2026
Beginning of the record: June 18, 2026. Everything above is every change we've published since.