Colorado 3rd District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | |
| Split Ticket | Lean R | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Tossup |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →We do not carry Colorado's certified primary result.
Colorado Secretary of State publishes the certified primary result on its official results page.
Colorado's published terms restrict reuse of its election data, and we honor that.
Colorado held its primary on June 30, 2026.
What we know
- Per Wikipedia, Dwayne Romero won the Democratic primary.
- Per Wikipedia, Jeff Hurd won the Republican primary.
Colorado's 3rd congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+8.08, yet polling from July 23, 2026 showed Republicans leading by only R+1. That gap between the structural lean and the polling margin is the central fact of this race. Cook Political Report rates the district "Likely R" (Added 2026-08-25); cookpolitical.com has the most current ratings and analysis. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Likely R" (Added 2026-08-11), while Split Ticket rates it "Lean R" (Added 2026-09-01). FiftyPlusOne goes furthest, rating the district "Tossup" (Added 2026-09-13). The raters do not agree, and that disagreement reflects the same underlying tension the polling captures: a district with a substantial baseline lean that is drawing more attention than its partisan character alone would suggest. Whether the July polling tightening persists into November is the operative question. A district polling at R+1 against an R+8.08 baseline is either an outlier or an early signal. The rater spread, from two "Likely R" calls to a "Tossup," reflects genuine uncertainty about which of those readings is correct.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $255.8K
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $3.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
District demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $70,890 (±$1,256)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,172 (±$19)
- People below the poverty line
- 12.4% (±0.4%)
- People without health insurance
- 9.2% (±0.4%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 49.5% (±1.6%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- Not shown. The federal form states this deadline in words that are not a plain "N days before the election" rule, so we do not compute a date. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
- Early voting
- Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.