Colorado 4th District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | |
| Split Ticket | Tossup | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely R |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →We do not carry Colorado's certified primary result.
Colorado Secretary of State publishes the certified primary result on its official results page.
Colorado's published terms restrict reuse of its election data, and we honor that.
Colorado held its primary on June 30, 2026.
What we know
- Per Wikipedia, Eileen Laubacher won the Democratic primary.
- Per Wikipedia, Lauren Boebert won the Republican primary.
Colorado's 4th congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+16.6, a margin that places it well outside the range where competitive resources typically concentrate. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid R (Added 2026-08-25); cookpolitical.com carries the most current ratings and analysis. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely R (Added 2026-08-11), while FiftyPlusOne also rates it Likely R (Added 2026-09-01). Split Ticket's rating of Tossup (Added 2026-09-01) is the notable outlier among the four raters tracking this district, and the divergence between that assessment and the others is the live analytical question heading into November. The gap between Split Ticket's Tossup and the Solid R rating from Cook Political Report is wide enough to reflect genuinely different methodological assumptions about the district's competitiveness rather than a modest difference of degree. Whether the district performs closer to its baseline or closer to the contested range Split Ticket projects will be one data point worth watching as 2026 results come in.
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $10.5M
- Cash on hand
- $3.6M
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $247.2K
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
District demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $115,239 (±$1,535)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,855 (±$29)
- People below the poverty line
- 6.8% (±0.4%)
- People without health insurance
- 5.8% (±0.3%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 51.3% (±2.1%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- Not shown. The federal form states this deadline in words that are not a plain "N days before the election" rule, so we do not compute a date. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
- Early voting
- Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.