Illinois 16th District
Where this race stands
| Rater | Rating | Added |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater. | |
| Split Ticket | Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater. | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Not available: Not in the source we read for this rater. |
Our model's lean sits inside the range of the raters covering this race.
Model output from our win-odds simulation, under calibration review. Methodology
See the full forecast →We do not carry Illinois's certified primary result.
Illinois State Board of Elections publishes the certified primary result on its official results page and its candidate page.
Illinois's election site asks automated programs to stay out, and we respect that.
Illinois held its primary on March 17, 2026.
What we know
- Per Wikipedia, Paul Nolley won the Democratic primary.
- Per Wikipedia, Darin LaHood won the Republican primary.
Illinois's 16th congressional district carries a partisan baseline of R+21.03, a margin that places it well outside competitive range by conventional measures. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid R (Added 2026-08-25); cookpolitical.com carries the most current ratings and analysis. No polling or fundraising data in the available record alters that picture. With the baseline this wide, the district offers little near-term electoral suspense, and the November contest is unlikely to draw the kind of resource investment that signals genuine competition. : https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential : https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $438.2K
- Cash on hand
- $233.6K
Campaign finance · FEC
- Raised
- $3.7M
- Cash on hand
- $6.7M
Federal Election Commission filings, as of Jun 30, 2026.
District demographics · Census ACS
- Median household income
- $84,411 (±$1,060)
- Median gross rent, monthly
- $1,020 (±$16)
- People below the poverty line
- 8.2% (±0.4%)
- People without health insurance
- 4.4% (±0.3%)
- Renter households paying 30% or more of income on rent
- 40.1% (±1.8%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2020-2024 , 119th Congress district lines (this district is unchanged for 2026); the survey window ends Dec 31, 2024. Survey estimates; the figure after ± is the 90% margin of error. The renter-burden share is derived by Thin Gold from two published Census percentages. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
Election information
- Voter registration deadline
- Not shown. The federal form states this deadline in words that are not a plain "N days before the election" rule, so we do not compute a date. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
- Early voting
- Not shown. We have not yet built a reader for this state's election office, so no state-published date is shown.
What is not on this page
- Candidate issue positions are not shown. We list a position only when it is tied to a named, dated source.
- No individual poll results are compiled for this race.
- The previous result for this seat is not shown: we hold no certified results record for it yet.